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November (Black Friday/Cyber Monday) and December (Christmas sales) are the biggest two months of the year by some distance in terms of sales volumes so you would expect sales/sites visits to come down post this period for most if not all retailers, not up. Not sure what you may be trying to imply here but what you've posted is equivalent to posting the sky is blue.
Sales/site vistits come down post Christmas.
ASOS have already notified the market that they expect 2024 to be worse than 2023. The SP tanked on that trading update by 10% before regaining all that lost ground in the following trading sessions. I think a lot of bad news is already baked into the SP at this point. Hopefully this means that ASOS are taking a note out of the NEXT playbook and will over deliver after under promising.
It is widely expected that in 2024 interest rates will come down as inflation continues to fall. Banks are already competing for sub 4% mortgage rates and the global economy should hopefully come out of the recent languishing period. 2024 looks like it should provide a better trading environment to 2023, notwithstanding any further global economic shocks due to pandemics and regional wars.
Speaking of the wars, I think the situation in the middle east will hopefully improve as the US is losing patience with the so called Israeli aim of eliminating Hamas without eliminating the majority of the civilian Palestinian population. The US is isolated on the global stage as the only major power providing diplomatic cover and weapons to Israel and the pressure is starting to show, especially in the last UN vote which the US abstained. Western support for the Russia Ukraine war is also faltering. Ukraine has already lost 17% of their territory to Russia and their recent large scale counter offensive failed. The western appetite for continuing to fund Ukraine is likely to fall this year which hopefully means a shift in strategy to peace talks.
Call me an optimist but I think 2024 could be a positive year for ASOS shareholders as long as the bod don't royally screw up anymore than they already have and the wars shows signs of abating.
Not sure, but my bank balance did :p
Ordered £112.06 worth of goods from ASOS.
Mine was originally £10 having bought in February but I've since averaged down to £6.10.
Not sure when we will see that again. With the company guidance to make a loss in 2024 and with high debt biting, I am hoping any semblance of a positive update will send this promptly north.
Hi all,
Just wanted to say I bought in at 23,455 shares at an average of roughly 405p 3/4 weeks ago and sold them just now at 500.6p, taking a healthy £22k profit.
Not sure if it was the best idea considering I have no idea where else to put the money lol but profit is profit, especially after a 23% rise in a short space of time. Eager to know where people think Easyjet will go next.
I may be back. It's a great board, apart from a few 'nuts' ;)
GLA!
What was the MCAP at that price?
What some fail to realize is that the current MCAP accounts for the TopShop asset. Selling TopShop is simply a case of turning an asset into cash, likely to pay down high interest debt. Cash flow is a big problem for Asos right now so it's a survival action.
The question then is, how much of an impact with the loss of TopShop have on Asos. Clearly the brand has intrinsic value if indeed there are multiple potential suitors.
Asos reported a pre-tax loss of almost £300mn, net debt up at £648.5m, a revenue drop of 10% from £3.9bn to £3.5bn, a fall in EBITDA of 32% to £124.5 million from £183.9 million and to top it all off, forecasts between 5% and 15% drop in sales in FY24.
Asos needs to raise cash and it will likely have to do that with either more debt, a share raise or by trying to sell TopShop. It's a lifeline to shore up the balance sheet. Whoever buys TopShop will be in direct competition with Asos in the fashion front.
ASOS target demographic is primarily 16-34 year olds which I why I made a point on my aunts age.
So my 45 year old auntie just randomly forwarded the ASOS sample sale site URL https://www.asossamplesale.com/ in our family group chat. It appears to have been doing the rounds and forwarded many times over.
The fact that a 45 year old is forwarding the link, that too when she never ever forwards anything, gives me hope that the sale site went viral and the numbers are likely to be pretty good.
ECB
The European Central Bank (ECB), has announced it is increasing its deposit rate to 3.5% from 3.25% , while hiking its main refinancing option to 4%. The move takes eurozone trading bloc interest rates to their highest level in 22 years as the ECB battles persistently high inflation. Estimates from Eurostat, suggest that eurozone inflation stood at 6.1% in May. The official figure for the month is released tomorrow (Friday).
US
The US paused borrowing costs unchanged at 5% to 5.25% for the first time after 8 consecutive rises with inflation having fallen to 4%
UK
UK inflation stands at 8.7% – more than double that of the US – but is expected to fall when official figures are released next Wednesday. A day later, the Bank of England will reveal its latest interest rate decision, with markets predicting a 25-basis point hike. If accurate, this would take the UK Bank Rate to 4.75%, its highest level for 15 years.
To celebrate and assist the turnaround strategy
Brought my average down to 600p with a net holding of 28,000 shares.
The BOD have managed to turn this around during their most difficult period and with inflation predicted to come down and other economic factors looking to improve over the medium to long term, this is now an opportunity to buy into probably the best recovery play on the stock market.
There are still risks of course as is with any stock, but with US inflation at 4% and the FED having paused rate rises for the first time after 10 consecutive rises, we may be starting to see a shift in the global economic outlook.
UK inflation data is out soon as it is expected to read positive. Interest rate rises are still going to cause a pain in the UK until they start to come down next year but with ASOS being able to hold on till 2026 with new finance arrangements to weather the current economic storm, I'm more hopeful now than before that we have seen the worst of it.
GLA
Clearly the BOD are not interested in a takeover but rather the long game having rejected a £1b offer, but instead elected to securing new financing till 2026. PIs should also realise that thing's won't really turn around this year because of the cost of living crisis squeeze. Inflation has sky rocketed prices for food and other goods. Interest rate rises are going to cause further pain to mortgage holders. It currently stands at 4.5% but the general consensus seems to be this will rise to 5.5% by the end of the year.
With lots of mortgage holders coming to an end to their fix term deals, it's going to wallop a lot of wallets and further reign in household spending. I mean that's the point of the rises.
The only saving grace at the moment is that energy prices have come down, fuel prices have also come down from their peaks and some supermarket costs savings for essentials such as dairy products and others are also starting to come down. I noticed this on my weekly shop yesterday.
I'm currently heavily underwater here, nearly 6 figures, and the next 6-12 months are going to be crucial I think in terms of the global recession/recovery dynamics which will directly impact ASOS ability to survive.
If Russia/Ukraine escalates, things could get worse for ASOS and the global economy as a whole. If OPEC+ decide to further reign in oil supply, energy prices could spike again causing pain for ASOS due to increased expenses and lesser consumer demand. If China continues to slowdown and/or the US enters recession, things are going to get worse for ASOS and the wider global economy.
This is an extremely risk share at the moment having been brought down to it needs due to external risk factors and poor monetary policies for rainy days over the last several years. The SP doesn't lie, no matter how PIs want to spin it. We are in a very precarious position.
I've got money to bring my average down to around 600p which could be a massive windfall of 7 figures if the company does recover to previous highs but it's just too darn risky to gamble at this stage. This is firmly a hold tight and hold onto your knickers stock at present.
I'm just praying the global economy starts showing sign of a turnaround and that the Russia/Ukraine situation resolves, perhaps with amicable peace talks.
Can you share the details, I didn't read the board yesterday. Thanks
I'm down significantly in this stock and just had an uncomfortable thought. What's to stop Mike Ashley buying 10% of the business thereby crossing the threshold to allow him to prevent any take-overs, to then let the business fail to admin if current woes continue, and then feast on the carcass?
I initially bought 4,310 shares spending £47k at 1080p average which I saw dwindle down to 450p. Thankfully I kept my entire holding and still do to this day.
What I am kicking myself about is that I had purchased a further 18,718 shares at an average of 700p. I saw these shares rise to 810p and then back down to 700p at which point I sold most of the new shares, around 13,990, out of fright that I had averaged down on a spike and the shares may head back down to the depths of 500p. Had I kept them, I'd be around £40k richer than I am now.
I'm currently sitting on 9,038 shares at an average of 880p. Still not bad but the gains could be much much greater :s
Hindsight is a b****
What are you guys holdings/averages and where are what is your exit plan?
The wider conditions that caused ASOS to lose 90% of it's value are all improving:
Shipping costs down
Inflationary pressures easing and expected to fall going into 2023 and back to the BOE target of 2% in 2024
Dollar weakening creating strong pound
Drastic efficiency improvements in the ASOS operating model for a £300m saving
Halfway through Winter already, the worst period of the energy crisis
Oil prices aren't anywhere near as high as they used to be
I think if there ever was a time to get into a stock for a longer term recovery play, now would be the time. The potential to multiply your investment 1-4 times is very possible here over the long term. I've put my money where my mouth is and hold 23k units of ASOS stock
What shorters? ----> https://ibb.co/3WSKbCr
Spot the conspiracy nut jobs more like...LOL