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Shareseeker
There are 2 drilling operations going on at the moment, both of which should increase the resource and upgrade 'inferred' resource'' to Measured & Indicated.
The drilling at Empire is targeting a high grade gold zone which is included in the one billion dollar resource (May 2020) and that resource includes the 9.5m ozs silver you mention - silver and gold often occur together so a decent chance that some of the inferred silver will be upgraded to M & I. By way of background the May 2020 resource was reworked from the May 2019 resource by expanding the pit size used to calculate the May 2019 resource and as that had the effect of doubling the silver inferred resource in the May 2020 resource, its that (or at least part of the 1.3m ozs increase) which may be upgraded by tis drilling I would guess - but we will only know when the updated resource comes out.
Additionally there is a drill team working at Red Star to increase the much smaller resource there (103m tonnes containing 580k ozs Ag plus Au, Pb, Zn etc) to get to a size to sustain a mine, which I would guess means maybe 5 or 6 or 8 times (?) larger resource (but nobody knows if the silver content remains consistent - but CEO has pointed to silver bearing mineralisation photos so maybe that's a hint ?)) given they were talking about a mine of 155 tonnes pa - again difficult to know until the updated resource is released although drilling data might allow a slightly more informed guess.
All my guesswork, but worth doing your own research to see if you agree on my deductions from RNS's etc. Hope that helps though.
Positive RNS on drilling at Red Star or the Empire high grade gold zone - or indeed anything else like the unexpected/left field metallurgical RNS a couple of weeks ago - and 30p/share could be something only seen in a rear view mirror.
Lots of potential in this share yet.
Copper price fell down a cliff as the pandemic hit, but climbing back nicely to its previous levels at just under $ 3/lb today - http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
Think the Brokers note you refer to was Hardman that was only valuing the Red Star project in its 31p target share price as it was likely to be the first mine in production....... and did not include the Empire open pit with its billion dollar resource (Measured and Indicated - copper, gold, silver etc ) at todays values, with the resource being announced in May 2020 in its share price calculation as I read the report. Metal value in the ground is a great start, just need to understand next steps of producing it.
After this years drilling is complete, new updated resource and new Project Economic Assessments released, IMO the brokers notes will have significantly higher share price targets, not least if Phoenix is positive about going into production. A multibagger ?
Just my own opinion, as always suggest you do your own research on RNS's etc
https://twitter.com/Phoenix_Copper/status/1278722661078773762?s=20
'The Empire Mine drill site at night, where drilling continues 24 hours a day!'
https://twitter.com/Phoenix_Copper/status/1278718284066627585?s=20
'This just in from the team at the Empire Mine in #Mackay, Idaho. The core rig in action at Red Star - exciting times! #copper #silver #drilling'
https://twitter.com/Phoenix_Copper/status/1278725154781134854?s=20
'Great photos are coming in from the #PXC team at The Empire Mine! What looks like "rusty dirt" is a significant outcrop of high-grade gold-bearing magnetite skarn at the southern end of the property. Head to hxxp://phoenixcopperlimited.com for more!'
Just click on the links to see the original tweets which are quite interesting !
Some good pictures - mainly of drill rigs, rock that has been identified as being high grade ore etc. All good stuff
Just found that Phoenix copper has a twitter feed with a few interesting photos on, which I'll try to post :
First one :
https://twitter.com/Phoenix_Copper/status/1278717210022809601?s=20
'The Red Star zone at the Empire Mine is a very exciting prospect! Now fast-tracked for exploration and into production! #mining #silver'
Mindblowing RNS as I've said elsewhere.
1. The gold grades of 12.8g/tonne in the sample are WAAAAAY above anything I've ever seem mentioned for Empire. That is in the same category of some of the richest gold mines around - so if there s enough of it (which drilling will prove) it'll be enough for another 'starter mine' like Red Star. Worst case it'll be added to the resource at the Empire mine, perhaps enough to turn it from a copper mine to a gold mine !
2. These gold recoveries from metallurgical tests are extraordinarily high at over 97% will be higher than used by analysts to value Phoenix so that by itself makes Phoenix more valuable. With it being a non cyanide method will bring forward the time tom put it into production. And investors looking to finance LOVE environmentally friendly mines.
As Empire is so close to Red Star, its likely these recoveries will be similar at Red Star (already a more gold/silver project than Empire), so its almost certainly good news for Red Star which will be have even better economics.
3 Almost perfect RNS
- More gold almost certain from drilling
- Great recoveries for gold and silver
- Non cyanide metallurgical recoveries brings forward production
In summary the project will be economically more attractive ( more gold and higher recoveries) and non cyanide much more environmentally friendly = investors will want to back = financing much easier.
Just a mindblowing RNS.
Wait until market wakes up to it.
Its not just nice news, its a game changer.
BTW, Happy Birthday - you are right to bring it forward a week !
2Daman I don't understand why you are suspicious of people posting and discussing information in RNS's ?
This is a share chat/discussion board on Phoenix Copper. What else ae you expecting except for talk on past RNS and people's interpretations and extrapolations of the news ? Maybe where people think the share price is heading ?
Would you prefer people who haven't researched Phoenix to post ? If so why is anyone going to bother to read it ?
My take on Phoenix having followed it and researched it is 'its got legs'. Big resource to buy for a small cap company and likely another near term mine (Rd Star) coming - with drill results from a known vein coming shortly.
Thoughts ? Which way do you expect the share price to go ?
Correction - very cheap with lots of good news coming soon.
Would you like more copper now sir ? Or more silver sir ? Or more gold ?
Are the biggest bets on more silver or more gold ?
From RNS announcing placing.
Use of proceeds:
o Diamond drilling at the high-grade Red Star silver / lead deposit
o Additional drilling and metallurgical engineering on the precious metals extensions at the Empire open-pit
o Gold exploration at Navarre Creek
Share price forecasting is a bit of a black art for mining companies like Phoenix, but just looking at how WH Ireland have come to their 34p target price, there's only about 4p value in there for Red Star as they've only included 10% of the value they are projecting from the project exploiting the mineral resource they are expecting the current drilling program.
I'd guess when the drill results start to come in, and subsequently with the NI 43-101 resource they get from that drilling on Red Star, that shareholders will see much more value in the Red Star project - especially if the drilling of that high grade vein generates a resource in the US$ 500m to US$ 1 billion category.
With Empire already having a billion dollar resource, adding Red Star resource could take Phoenix total resources to circa over two billion dollars (including inferred resources. Need to wait for the Red Star resource to be announced, but.......the drill results will tell us what's possible.
Quite something for a company valued at well under £20m (although perhaps not for long !).
Really good timeline of activity going forward in the presentation.
Drilling on Red Star going through to August means that with RNS 28 April saying they started drilling the 1,500 metre (20 hole) programme on 27 April that should be completed by end June or before (75 metres per hole is less than a day drilling plus add a day to move the drill to next location = 2 days per hole or maximum 3 days so 20 holes is probably 40 working days meaning it should be complete by end June) so that implies drill programme is being increased .
Only reason to do that is they can see the drill core on the holes drilled to date (maybe half the initial 20 hole drilling programme complete already ?) looks good, so even before the assays are done aim to fund extra holes being drilled (and initial program was only 700k so not expensive to add an extra 10 or 20 holes on). And that means management confident of an increased resource at Red Star which is viable to raise 25m-30m to put into production in 2021.
Fantastic news.
Think the next announcement will either announce the increased drilling programme or the first assay results - which are bound to be good if they are saying they are increasing drilling already !
Paul Mylchreest’s from Hardman put out a research note as well as the one from WH Ireland.
Both are serious analysts who have put out some detailed research on Phoenix - I see the WH Ireland one has already been posted, here's the Hardman one :
https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Phoenix-Copper-Ltd-Initiation-of-coverage-22-August-2019-1.pdf
and an interview with the analyst on Phoenix
https://vimeo.com/358978196
Harman says a price of 31p now - but based on Red Star and Empire copper/zinc and no/minimal value for anything else so a big upside due when the Empire gold/silver is included (in a few months when Phoenix releases its economic model on the Merrill Crowe process to produce the metal (probably in a few months ?) , cobalt projects, Empire sulphide project and Navarre Creek gold project which may be longer term.
What's not yo like !.
I think the Directors are feeling pretty optimistic that the current Red Star drilling will yield a decent fairly high grade resource which can be put into production for maybe $25m to $30m….and maybe annual cash flow of circa $10m+ pa for a few years (and that by itself would pretty much underpin current share price).
Red Star $30m should be much easier to finance than Empire and once in production makes it a lot easier to finance the $55m needed to put Empire into production.
Great thing is the first assays from the first drill holes on Red Star should be available in a matter of weeks - and as the drilling is along a known vein they are likely to be as good as the first 3 holes drilled (ie. low risk).
With the Empire mine project showing 'metal in the ground' values (based on last RNS) of almost US$ 1bn in 'Measured and Indicated' category - and closer to US$ 1.5 bn if we include the inferred resource, that project's got to be worth many times current market cap, something around US$ 100m looks as good a guess as any atm.
And if we add in the resource currently being drilled at Red Star, and assuming similar grades and results from the initial 3 holes (as drilling is going along a known vein, that's got to be a credible estimate) and project that pro-rata for the 20 hole drilling that's got to be closeish to a further US$ 200m 'metal in the ground value' and a viable project by itself with the investment of US$ 25m - 30m that most are projecting.
So whatever the dilution you're expecting, the current market cap and share price still looks well short of the value of the mining assets. And that's not including the cobalt assets and gold project.
So its got to be MM's and shorters/derampers who are ratcheting down the current share price.
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Not so slow for anyone buying 10 days ago - a 4 bagger in 10 days is not slow !
Good news is the upside is still huge. And the drilling starting yesterday will kick start that - 20 holes being drilled into the vein discovered last year is pretty low risk. Majority of holes bound to come up with decent results - only question is how good they will be ?!
Just wanted to highlight this statement in the Annual Report - haven't seen too many other companies able to be so positive about their operations continuing :
COVID-19 Impact Statement
The Coronavirus pandemic has had a significant and immediate impact on the operations and funding of many businesses both in the USA and globally. However, mining was named an essential service under Idaho Governor Brad Little's recent stay-at-home order, so Phoenix employees are moving the Empire and Red Star Projects forward without delay.
To protect the health and safety of its employees and the local community, the Company, in concert with community leaders, has developed an innovative plan that minimizes employee-to-employee contact and virtually eliminates contact with the community at large while allowing the Company to proceed with the Red Star drilling programme.
The Company has closely examined the supply chain and is confident that all necessary equipment and supplies will be readily available for the drilling programme.
So drilling programme in place, no doubt there will be an update at AGM, but from what was in the Annual Report, we can expect the updated reserves and resources in Q3 2020 which is the basis for raising finance - and given the current resource is based on only 3 holes (such were the stonking grades) then a drilling program of probably less than 20 drill holes is all that's required to get the reserves and resources to prove a viable project.
Metal prices haven't cratered 2 or 3 months into the coronavirus problem proving that the world needs metals still. And USD 30m really isn't a big problem to raise - expect production in 2021 !
Company is doing everything required to prove the resource and then get financing - probably debt financing so no/minimum dilution. Absolutely standard stuff. NOBODY ever gets a financing offer until they have the resource/reserves proved.
Big players are interested - assume you saw RNS on 20 April disclosing that Martin Hughes bought shares at 15p to become Phoenix largest shareholder.
Martin Hughes is a good name to have on Board - not only founded Tosca Fund in 2000 (20 years ago so a long term investor) which is reported to have assets of circa 4 billion under management and can attract city heavyweights like former co-CEO of Standard Life Aberdeen Martin Gilbert as its new Chairman, but he's is a Director of Glencore (from 2017) a world class major player in the metal market.
Cant be too many 'minnows' with that type of backing.
What's not to like !
And always worth following the big boys in investing - reason why they are big is they got their investments right !