Member Info for Interestking

Hi Bapuk.

Don’t apologise to me my friend our collective opinion is what stops us from getting carried away and
I CERTAINLY APPRECIATE YOUR VALUABLE OPINIONS.

I think the point I am trying to make is that yes, even up to a few months ago most of us would have been ecstatic to see a MAJOR come on board almost on any terms - probably hoping for 20% retention.

However Eytan and Simon have proved themselves more than a match for the big boys and indeed this inspires me because one of my investment criteria is always that there has to be quality management at the top of any company before I invest.
Alan Burns was my driver initially and SP was his chosen number 2 and that fit the bill.

They have surpassed themselves with their negotiating skills and I suspect may yet surprise us by getting a better deal than the original CLN before the drilling commences.
Bear in mind McQ have achieved nothing in these negotiations - it has all been S and E.
Our guys have proved they are looking after shareholder value as a priority.

I believe we are more likely now to get an equal shared partnership of some kind although if the MAJOR/S stump up significant cash to cover expenses thus far that may be a negotiating position taken so we may end up with slightly less than 50%. I do think we will end up with a consortium of say Shell and Ophir.

I do believe we can drill 2 wells with the cash at our disposal as the $25-30 mio per well is worst case scenario and from my calculations I think we will expedite much more quickly and reduce capex significantly.

Furthermore if we hit the min strike of 200mio BOO that is $1BN NPV and would almost certainly re-rate the other drill prospects. So exponentially we would advance on almost any success IMHO.

This would in turn enhance our ability to further fund if there is no MAJOR on board.

I think BPC will keep operator status now for P1 but if Major comes in at any point it would be strange to not use their power to further the drilling programme optimally going forward. Unless the BG have a desire for home-grown oversight.

My base case for this until I see actual results is that any result keeps us very much alive and I am assuming 1BN BOO over the whole project as a minimum. This is massively below potential according to seismic data and Moyes so I feel comfortable with this strategy.

SP pricing will have to be a moving feast and possibly a small hedge pre/during drill but by then I think a 20% hedge will leave us in free.

GL mon ami.
IK

Pr0 your welcome.

Seeing as were such good pals you can call me IK!
X

FYI FOLKS
Looking v positive:-

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/BPC.LN/opinion
GL
IK

The question to our recent posters quoting NPV figures etc is where are you getting 10-20% BPC share of farmin from?
That is so out of date now.
We are almost certainly looking at farmin in the 50/50 range.

Would love to hear your logic for only 10-20%
GL

Hi Fatal

There speaks a wise man sir .

I can just imagine:-

RUMOUR:
“EA facing stumbling blocks.”...............SP down to 3.3p
Oops sorry “EA facing no stumbling blocks.”...............SP up to 6p.

“CLN signing off course”..............SP down to 3.3p.
Oops sorry “CLN signing on course.”.............SP up to 6p.
“ Sorry - damn spellcheck.”

They will hit your stops if they can, anyway they can.
BEWARE!

Good luck all.
IK

Hi Oldtrader - just like me!

No names no pack drill in this day of mass media trolling etc.
I prefer anonymity.
My initials are GA and I worked for: NWB/Union Discount/Chase/Investec/Family office. Various centres including London, New York, Zurich, Geneva, Channel Islands.

Hi Stew

Thanks vm for your comments much appreciated.

Absolutely right on OO and MF.

Had to rewind on that and determined that 3 things IMO probably accounted for me being off the mark:-

I was so convinced that 2p was a steal ----------------------?

Pis were understandably battered and bruised by 10 years of false starts etc so more reticent than they perhaps should have been.

I know the Bahamas scene very well and knew there are many family offices there and assumed they would take up the MF big time.
(Eytan beat me to it and got all $10.5 mio in the new CLF!!!)
Joking there but I know there are billions in the Bahamas and thought some of it would be interested.

Anyway excuses over I was wrong and unequivocally don’t get it right all the time.

Just for fun my mantra is:-

6/10 is ok.
7/10 is excellent.
8/10 is once in a blue.
9/10 you’re a liar sir!
10/10 In nomine Patris et Filii et Spiritus Sancti.

Re Hedging:

Taking some off the table pre spud is wise. Ill probably do as such myself not sure how much.
I am doing strategic thinking thereto and will report back if you wish mon ami.

Do not short it at all IMO. I believe this will roll on into next year in terms of potential development with possible takeover at some point.

Always welcome for a drink sir - hoping to see many of our friends at Langan’s when the Amarone and B/H is on me!

GL mate.
x

Hi Only

Thanks vm for your comments.

Specifically I am suggesting that any Stop loss orders will only be oxygen for the MMS.
They target them to create volume/fear/volatility - their life blood.
This share is now “in play” and very much a one way ticket barring real set backs like a “duster.”

So starve them of oxygen and there is only one way for it to go overall IMO.

I was part of this market for all of my career so know how they work.

Different story when we get to spud as most of the news etc. will be in the price and the SP will react to REAL news.

Of course you must apply your own risk parameters based on your personal finances.
However I would repeat that if you cannot afford to lose this money then maybe scale back or indeed not be in it..
I hasten to add I say this with great affection and repeat IMHO this one has the potential to change lives.
GL
X

Hi Yonny.

Thanks vm for your kind words much appreciated.

FYI - My understanding is that BPC joined the presentation itinerary quite late in the day so it was not widely advertised on a timely basis. We now know why - great last minute news to impart !!
X

Hi Old

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

In other words take nothing anyone says as gospel.

The BPC website has tons of research under “INVESTORS” - particularly refer to MOYES references as they are no.1 INDEPENDENT assessors of the data provided by BPC technical data.
GL mon ami.
X

Hi Tib

My thoughts exactly:-

By my calculations the funding position is:-

$36.0 mio committed funding
$2/3.0 mio cash in hand
$1.4 mio march MF issuance - this is shares @ 3.35p so should be taken up IMO.

Ergo approx $40 mio available.

My guess is:-
P1 drill Early April.

High gas evidence after several weeks (Cretaceous/Albian levels) based on Moyes evaluations.

2nd drill expedition considered.

My understanding is that the Exec believe the drill will take < 60 days which means much lower capex.
(The contingency funding of $25-30 mio per well assumes worst case scenario of 90 days drilling.)

I am doing some number crunching over the w/e re SP management/strategy and will revert.
The bottom line is do not sell any shares and do not set any stops for MMs to target.
This is only, overall, going one way pre spud.
IMO the MMs are very short of stock and have overwhelming “BUY” order books.

Becoming a £100 mio company has far reaching potential positivity as it puts us into a different league re “minimum investment criteria” for some investors, particularly professional institutions who may wish to join in.
If we don’t let them have stock there is only one way to go.

Remember we PIs own the majority of the tradable stock and have some control here.

The MOBYs are “podding” and think they have the power - they don’t - we do for once.

There will be a case for hedging just prior to spud if you feel the need, as everyone’s financial position is different.
Hopefully everyone understands DYOR and is only “playing” with money they can afford to lose.
THIS COULD BE A DUSTER.
This may also be a life changer for most and comes along once in a blue.
Take care.

P.S. If I am being too overactive and folks want me to pullback please indicate thus. I do not want to be seen as a ramper or a know it all etc.

GL
IK

A lot higher than that IMHO.
GL

Glide nice typo with”tanks” - let’s hope so.
ITS A SIGN!!!!!!
Cheers.

Glide

If on P1 we hit the top end of potential proportionate to Moyes- overall 3.3 bill boo- 28 bill boo then we are talking a£ sign as all of the Licences will be re-rated accordingly.

Just work out $5 on 28 bill and that is conservative.

I can genuinely see £££s in this primarily due to the quality of the tech analysis coupled with now proven high expertise of the management. Ultimately my faith refers back to Alan Burns who in my experience was the best in the business and has done the above before.

I will drill down to specific numbers over coming weeks leading upto drill.

My philosophy on asset management is that once every 10 years something like this comes along and you need to go with the flow and be brave. A life changer in other words
AIMHO of course Glide
GL and nice w/e mate.
X

CONGRATS FOLKS WE ARE NOW A £100 million company.

Nice w/e
GL

Hi Bryn.

All joking aside did you see that the blues population has increased massively in the latest “census?”
Fantastic news - sounds like the ban is at last paying off.
GL mon ami.

Whale at large.
IMHO

Jim
As usual mon ami you put it perfectly.

Just a quick thought:

We are approaching £100 mill mkt cap.
This is often perceived as the min benchmark for larger investors re investment decisions
Do you think this may start to permeate BOD strategic thinking?
IK
GL

Robbo
EIA cannot be issued until:-

All parties are known ———TBA
Rig is known.———-TBA
Flora/Fauna/Seawater systemic analysis is done.———-which occurs immediately prior to ops commencement for onward comparison re environmental impact. I.E. Baseline set.

The BG are not going to turn EIA down after re- issuing Licences, giving BPC until end of 2020 to drill, authorizing a MF for Bahamians to invest, being bankrupt with no alternative sources of revenue etc.etc.

At some point whilst not actually issued it is irrevocable.
Also BPC has already committed expenditure of millions of dollars and there is no way that would happen without the EIA nod of approval
IK
GL

SL

Could you remind us which ones haven’t been fulfilled because I’m missing something here
Cheers.
IK.
GL