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FATAL

Oh dear and you were doing so well!

You are the only person on this board who has to revert to ****ging off - rather than the sometimes required constructive criticism of posters.

I thought you had learnt your lesson with you’re apologies etc. I for one have uncompromisingly. supported you in your “recovery.”
However it appears it was all in vain.
You’ve obviously been down the pub (probably all afternoon /evening ) and off you go - grumpy old man erupts.
Go and do one and certainly leave Bonum alone who is considered to be a valued and hard working member of this board by many here.
I’ve now lost interest in your “recovery” and I use the word advisedly!

I suspect the EA has been signed off with a specific rig allocated to BPC on a go alone basis e.g. Saturn OR provision for a MAJOR’s own ship which the BG would obviously be happy with without question.

Keith.
My thoughts exactly.
So FARMIN in the frame behind the scenes and those in the know positioning accordingly?

SHAMI
I believe there is one other positive rarely mentioned.
In the event of any oil find the other target sites will be significantly rerated.

If we hit top end 1.4 BN BOO folks will start speculating about the 28 BN BOO.
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P_I well kidnap you for the event whatever the wife does!
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TIB
Thanks.
Specifically on the financing I have never quite got the costing as I agree $13 mio per drill and ancilliary expense ain’t going to take us to 25-30mill. That is my central case for at least 2 wells.
Fingers XX.
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TIB
THKS VM - appreciated and helpful.
Cheers
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Hi Tatty.

BPC - EYTAN AND SIMON have said on several occasions that the drill is economically viable with oil @ $30 a barrel. This was when their estimated cost of a well was $100-120 mio.
Obviously with drill estimate @ $25-30 mio that has to be lower now.
Plus oil extraction is forward looking.
Do you really perceive the Corona effect to last for years?
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Hi Keith

Serious question to your good self and everyone actually as I want confirmation of what’s left to RNS going forward apart from FARMIN of course?
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Bon - Nice post mate.

Going to concentrate on relishing the thought of a few pints and a Chicken Bhuna madras ce soir!
Enjoy the ZEN-day!
Bon Chance.
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Keith love it -finally the end of restrictive Communism.
Always thought The Chinese would get around to sharing eventually!
Have a guddun mon ami.
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Spellcheck killed a bit of the message - apologies.
Last line of Part 1 should read:

"N.B. It is only 10 years ago that the DOW was below 10,000."

The Corona virus is no worse than others we have seen and indeed if you look at the “normal” flu statistics, more folks have contracted and died from it during this “epidemic” by a multiple than from Corona.
The media are panicking everyone primarily because they have nothing else of note to report and this exacerbates the problem.

I think Id better stop now, getting on my soapbox, but hopefully you get the message.
BPC is affected a bit by events but only because no one wants to get involved due to the MACRO.

Hold fast and we will win IMHO.
GL
IK
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Good Morning Folks

Not really going to comment about SP today as it is undoubtedly being buffeted by a variety of factors. Not least of which is Stock market volatility.

So today more discussion re nuances from Simon and some overview of said markets to try to see the way forward once stability resumes.

Simon IMO was very interesting in his podcasts yesterday particularly VOX where I thought he was more dynamic.

I felt that he was baiting the MAJORS.- he has proved himself to be a smart player so look for the underlying in anything he says:-

Alluded to RIG confirmation but did not name the ship although he virtually named it by Build Date reference and some description of type - Do the majors have their own rig available and “ we’ve got ours do you want to use yours type joust?"

Alluded to American pronunciation Of Perseverance - Taking the Mickey perhaps - US MAJORS involved?

I really believe the white washy “lots of logistics” comment at the end of the interview was designed to say - if you want in its now! As your expertise/infrastructure can be used or not but were getting on now so chivvy up.

He’s playing Texas Hold’em and has gone all in with the Majors.

MARKETS

Might be worth bearing in mind a few things about the MACRO investment environment that is prevailing and buffeting our SP.

This is nothing to do with BPC obviously except to dampen investment appetite generally.

From a technical perspective the US market in particular was very very very overbought.
The INDICES were in the process of completing a 5th Elliot wave long term move.
They were absolutely ripe for a very big correction.

The catalyst was Corona.

WE have had The Financial Crash, Bird flu, EBOLA etc. before and the market bounces back eventually.
I am sure we will bounce again.
HOWEVER! IMHO This one will take some time and nothing to do with Corona.

There is virtually no safe instrument in the major financial markets for folks to park their cash/pensions
ETC. This includes the investment vehicles like pension funds.
Interest rates are returning minus numbers and so folks as usual due to greed go hunting for some return.

The only environment offering potential investment income is stock markets.
ERGO everyone piles in - which is easier than ever in these days of platforms etc.
AND everyone becomes an overnight expert.
What is forgotten or indeed not realised is that Stock Markets can go down as well as up and on a macro basis always have major corrections.

This is therefore a major correction of over exuberance (as Alan Greenspan would say!)

I would say however that this one will take a lot of turning around and don’t expect it to fly, for quite a while. There will be a lot of newcomers to investing who will have panicked and lost a lot of their wealth during these events and they will probably go back to “putting it under the mattress” at least for a while.

N.B>
It is only 10 years ago that The Dow was be

Hi Monk

Exactly what I deducted (Watson.)
GL
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Hi London.

Good post with valid advice.
I would point out that IMO there has never been a more de risked prospect than BPC’s.
15 years of constant “grooming” of the data after the initial prospector honed in on the area. Alan Burns is recognized by most industry experts as the no.1 diviner of mineral resources.. $100 million + spent on derisking. COS of 25-35% when I believe the average of most new regions is 11%.

All of this has to be incorporated in an investment decision here.
The odds do not get any better.IMHO.
GL
IK
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SHAMI.

THANKS VM for that excellent post!
GL.
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BYN
Thks vm - much appreciated Sir.
GL

Jim I’ll stick with the cigar thanks and of course Amarone!