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Will
Thanks mate good spot on the Case!
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Sorry folks no point in commenting really on BPC now without news.

Jim
You were probably right a few weeks ago when you said you were not going to comment for while.
We wanted your input for obvious reasons and thanks for carrying on regardless.

The world and the bbc ((n.b. Small caps) in particular have gone mad in their reporting and causing panic.

N.B. WE DO NOT HAVE BOMBS FALLING ON US!

Andrew Marr “this might go on for years!”

Irrational populist journalism at its worst! IMO.

The other thing is that there is no sport. They have to fill the news time with something else and Brexit is dead now.

“OL D PEOPLE ISOLATE FOR 4 MONTHS - REALLY! No evidence for this whatsoever.

Sorry rant over. Ironically BPC will possibly benefit from these nuances in being able to fine tune the finite details.
GL

IK
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QED.

My comments of a few hours ago -politicians only put their heads above the parapet when they KNOW it ain’t going to get blown off and that something to their kudos is about to happen.
This guy knows everything that is going on and is (look @ the picture) basking in the sunlight.

Anytime now folks!
GL
IK
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Jim
Totally agree with what you say there - succinctly put!

Just one observation is that of course we want more info , however I think you will agree that this is such a moving feast, particularly now, and The BOD have been battered for so long that they possibly have a right to be circumspect.
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Whilst drill date has changed by a few weeks.
The possibility of News any day now re farmin etc. has not changed.

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Jim

Sorry brainstorming on the hoof - would explain insurance delay to nail down required timeline cover for rig.
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Jim.
Extrapolating that:
Might explain the 31st March date for CLN to nail down payment for first month from CLN AND retain funding for second drill / continuation of equal partnership I.e. 50:50 split!
This would keep BPC firmly defended from a cashflow perspective
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Jim.
goodpost mate.
I understood what you meant re resignation irony is lost on some folks.

Like what you said about rig availability.
So possibly the reason no rig contract - and I believe e.g. Exxon have West Saturn from July but wanted to change that to May if possible - BPC pay for April drill month. And EXXON pay for May/June?
Bearing in mind that the Major will take over actual development of the well once “Black Gold” is gushing!?
GL
IK
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Lint

Like the tremendous winds the Bahamas experience - the politicians blow with them!
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Prospect.
So thinking laterally Ferreira’sBlack Gold!!

Hi Folks.

Ruminating on Ferreira’s latest comments:

Politicians do not put themselves out there unless they want the glory or are covering their ass.

Bit of both going on in his dialogue all of which is fairly obvious – blame the previous govt if it goes wrong and take the credit if it goes right.

My instinct requires me to ask – “Why comment now?”

Answer seems obvious – we are about to get the deal announced big time and he wants to be associated whilst at the same time playing politics with the naysayers whose votes he still wants whenever.

He WILL know what is going on as the Minister responsible and a bit like The AG who commented just pre Major exclusivity he wants the kudos.

Otherwise he would keep his tin hat on like any politician does.

The other possible nuance is that he is pushing for a fast conclusion by implying that future licenses are not up for grabs so MR MAJOR get on with it. – we want a drill in April!

The other thing about the referendum etc is a smokescreen – if we hit “black gold “ ( his deliberate words IMO) there is no way that the general population is going to say no. Fait. accompli.

IMHO and all that and for what it’s worth!
GL
IK
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Steve.
Can you point me to the evidence of where BPC
“use the virus as an excuse for not fulfilling statements made over the last few weeks and months” please.
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Share.
Ideal conditions for the whales to be sitting eating up the crill.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see big after hours buys this evening/ Tom a.m.
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Only

I know 1000s of folks and not one has been affected. Except Tom but I only know him from his superb films!

GL to all who have been affected though.
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Yonny.
Thanks.

I actually do take note of conspiracy theories as occasionally they prove correct.
It’s true that The Democrats are making hay while the flu spreads as to be honest any opposition party would in an election year.
TBH it’s about the only chance of them gathering momentum through panic/fear.
It will IMHO make no difference - Trump will win a landslide victory in November.
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FYI

WHO REP just said live on the BBC that they have “labelled” it a pandemic not “declared” it a pandemic.
Subtle difference but worth bearing in mind.
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Revisiting The CLN scenario I think that a JV is being negotiated as I write.
The option to release 50% commitment to CLN makes sense if BPC want to nail the first well finance down as proof to partner prospect of full funding whilst reducing dilution. The fact that we incur “no cost” as opposed to “minimal cost” (original CLN agreement) is possibly indicative that the Bizzell guys are aware that we have funding come what may and a Major is in the frame. Therefore their investment is as underwritten as it can be within the context of its speculative nature.
The partner may be willing to do a 50/50 split if there is no reimbursement of costs to date.
S & E are probably playing hard ball in order to retain shareholder value and this might be an acceptable arrangement for a Major as If the drill is a duster it will be quite difficult for BPC to raise funds again and The Major may see this as a way to get a foot in the door with The BG re license issuance for the long game.
Just guessing really but would make sense when you consider the end game on the finance is really now 31st March. This is probably the forced date set by BPC to the prospective Partner in order to drill in April come what may.
Very important to remember that we have the funds committed to go it alone BUT we do not need them immediately and we have deals to drawdown cash when required thus reducing interest expense etc.
Ask yourselves why do we need to create the CLN 50 % option with timeline specificity if something specific wasn’t imminent?
People assume that because the CLN dates have been changed that it affects April drilling – it doesn’t necessarily.
People think we have lost our rig because of the “definitive contract” quote – we are supposed to be inspecting the rig and insuring it so definitive = long-form contract IMHO. We probably have LOI for Simon to have been able to say “ We have our rig “ a few weeks ago.
We have a propensity when things don’t quite come out in black and white the way we think they should to think the worst I.e. something’s wrong.
The “contingency twins” have proved that they have sophisticated planning credentials and I believe that they have things in hand and will keep the April drill promise. We are simply fine tuning as negotiations develop.
I believe we are down to the wire of final negotiation detail.
Not long until we find out whether I am talking out of my backside or not. Oops more loo paper required!

Excellent Budget by the way and what a performance from our new Chancellor – good choice Boris!

Wow these equity indices! Worth bearing in mind that now we are officially a “Pandemic” that apart from numeric evidence in theory the worst has been declared. Some bottoming out may occur. Although trying to catch a falling knife can be very dangerous as they say! Whoever “they” are?
GL
IK
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Whistler
Probably means markets will scream up on a contrarian basis!
Good luck mate.
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This is a brand new prospecting region with massive potential. Yes it has been checked out in the 40s, 80s etc however never have the portents been so aligned.

The Bahamas used to be the playground of the few. International tourism exploded in the 70s as did offshore finance. (The Bahamas boomed.)
Combine the 2 and The Bahamas was never, in most eyes, going to allow drilling to occur. Majors probably thought it was nigh on impossible to be allowed to go for it with any COS.

The game has changed:
The Bahamas is broke and recent cataclysmic weather events have exacerbated this.
Offshore finance has near as dammit been killed off by concerted Anti Money Laundering collaboration worldwide.
Tourism has spread to all corners of The World and there are many many alternative destinations.
Ergo The Bahamas have realized they have to do things differently.

This therefore means that a new oil prospecting region is up for grabs/control.
Make no mistake the Majors are desperate to get control of this new potential goldmine.

This translates into: Whatever precedent is set in this first farmin will set the trend and why the Majors are playing very tough AND trying so hard to “kill” BPC IMHO.

This sort of is my central case for a prospective “mongrel” consortium as all types of oily participants can see a potential bread and butter earner for the long term.
(The reality I still think will be one Major.)

S&E are unequivocally excellent strategists and it would not surprise me to learn that they have surmised similarly.

Long term plan time:
Get all interested parties working as one with us As key players.

This may be a leap too far but these guys, like their mentor AB, always think out of the box!
GL
IK
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Jim

My thoughts EXACTLY.
I have always believed a farmin was going to happen. The question was about leveling up the equity playing field.
To that end our BOD have done an amazing job and indeed I believe surprised the potential farminees.
The “delays” on criteria are specifically managed to optimize BPC ‘ s negotiating position.

Message to Majors - we are going to drill in April. We are fully ready so put up or shut up!

Talk of rig games is just that. Our board have proved their contingency planning credentials. N.B. Increase of $5mio in drill costs which have been fully funded.

We are on the cusp one way or the other.

My belief is that we will partner, whether single major/Consortia or mongrel with mixed elements of the oil business e.g. Oiler/s + service provider + rig provider.
GL
IK
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