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short post for you Win. I almost ticked it up.
2-3m pm uk with european and asian capacity standing ready to progress though tt if/when it is needed.
Sp got taken down for a range of reasons. Large insti seller, realisation big sales weren't coming as soon as thought, panicked holders selling/forced out on way down, shorter coming in, continued lack of big sales. We have a great lft but lack of big sales so far have made some people legitimately question whether the ramp will come and, if it comes how steep will it be.
Outside long term holders sentiment is shot and amongst them their is a bit of serious bruising to confidence on the lft and also perhaps on management. On top of that pharma is not really flavour of the summer or of this point in the cycle.
But there is a distinction between saying that these are the rational causes of the drop to using them and other factors to invoke FUD - which is the provenance of shorters, trolls and those looking for cheap entries. Most of the time share actually overshoot on the way down. I believe that to be the case here. But in any event sentiment is always fickle. If there is HUA, lots of medusa sales to consumers and/or other developments like a large contract of two sentiment will shift not just because of what that brings in profit but because it will bring a degree of restoration of confidence in the potential of the lft and a less negative view of management. if that doesn't come as well as we might think then there are still multiple shots at multi-billion markets on the therapeutics side and further opportunities in diagnostics. 85% of my holding is stowed long term in SIPP and ISA for these reasons.
Thanks for your posts Mowzer which I think are excellent and thoughtful. They expose the antics of two narcissistic incessant posters who just love to play victim. And with their antics exposed these posters come out of the woodwork to try and throw shade. Its classic them. Faux indignation writ large when Fun-time exposes them.
I find it difficult to be positive Myles due to the sp action over the past few months. Not quite well off enough to be completely phlegmatic about it. Esp. when I am overweight pharma as a whole and its not been flavour of the last few months. Still like many on this board I am happy to be a bloodyminded large holder and wait for one or more of the large opportunities to come good before even slicing.
Infowars? FFS Prof cheese can't you use a more reliable news outlet to air to us your legitimate concerns about the vaccines. I won't even read it because I know it will be full of distortion.
PL and Agent - I think things may be less considered than you imagine. Government has many moving parts not all of which always move in a co-ordinated fashion.
Start with the fact that this Government is led by a lazy and self-absorbed person who sets the tone. The approach to procurement is influenced by the desire to allow themselves and their mates, families and donors to benefit. They are populists and have a right wing dislike of the state providing solutions - thing of them as like a lite version of Bolsonaro or Trump.
When Cummings was there he had a plan that clearly was big on testing but no-one else cares enough about it. Like Bolsonaro and Trump they like to pretend everything is normal when it is not. That and a lack of general foresight and care means that they don't like restrictions, don't even like masks and aren't really very keen on testing.
Vaccination was a gift to them because they keep effing up and it is one way of making them look like they are ahead of the game and suits their whole anti-restriction agenda. Of course they privately and sometimes publicly air the idea of natural and ultimately herd immunity because they don't have the right ideology, motivations or attitudes to handle a pandemic and just want it to be over.
As has been said before they are probably two minded about accurate tests anyway - accurate tests mean more accurate and specifically higher representations of the numbers having covid. That doesn't suit the pretense it is all over. On the other hand if they can let most of life rock on as normal but use contexts like schools, healthcare, workplaces and travel as gateposts for testing they can pretend they are 'allowing' freedom whilst actually maintaining some kind of lid on rates going into winter. So we don't use testing to aid a move to zero covid but simply to keep a simmering pot of hospitalisations from boiling over. Sorry to say that this means the domestic fate of affidx is linked to how bad the crisis is. Of course as many note this is a global product though.
There will be some churn - though whether placement buyers /adders can turn a worthwhile profit after costs @16 is doubtful. May be some disgruntled existing holders selling. But they shouldn't be - the company has a self declared buy and build strategy - and sometimes before they are big and highly profitable its inevitable that they can't digest some of the acquisitions without placement.
A lot of this is how well you think the company can/does select acquisitions that are not just good value taken in isolation but astute in terms of their having a range of activities that are sufficiently proximate to the existing business and yet avoid or minimise duplication of what the business can already do without the acquisition.
I am in tils and this. profited by trading parts of my holding at various times but these chunks I have left are practically in a deep water trench. Sticking to them with bloody minded patience. And will buy more once I have better cash on the side
Timster's comment on ava got me thinking about when the sp influencing points would be along ava's path. I have heard it said that right now no news is good news as it suggests nothing bad is happening which in itself is materially significant. people talk about first set of results at christmas being relevant and I can see that but what kinds of impact on sp could we speculate (and why) if those results are good
we can reasonably predict that Medusa won't be passive - that they have the resources, knowledge, skill and contacts to market the hell out of it once they are selling for home use. As for Avacta well we don't know what they have done exactly or have in the works but my default instinct is that they have been far too passive and slow to push it out and to get FTI to help with that.
you couldn't have bought / licensed two better platforms
there are conspiracies and conspicaries. on its dictionary definition the word means 2 or more people/entities privately coming together to do something illegal or immoral. There is plenty of that which goes on in this govmt - including all the routine flavours of corrupt activity like private messages being passed by what's app to influence contracts. Corruption, incompetence and lethargy go hand in hand and I think that's what companies like Avacta and Mologic have suffered at the hands of the Govmt. We know that Porton Down processes are inept and that should have been clear to the relevant person's in or working with govmt. But clearly nothing was done. And one reason is because under the bluster of supporting the domestic industry the govmt don't care enough to be proactive and supportive and are actually quite happy to just go on with cheap chinese tat . Why? maybe partly because it suffices to give the impression they are doing a lot and does partially work but maybe also their are vested commercial interests at stake. Quite astonishing that Bethell can get away with the argument that he had a new phone and doesn't have the old when just an ordinary person doing self asssessment is supposed to keep many years of records....
yeah two of them are Tanner and Medco which pretty much just look like suppliers. So this is prob chinese tests.
Of course dvrg don't have the funds - they have 7m capital is that right? But nothing stopping them doing a placing to raise the funds and/or doing a mix of cash and share offer. Good time to do that with msys price constrained by overhang selling
Today's purchase is being just more than half funded by a share placing of 12m GBP at 15p a share. That may generate some short to mid term selling pressure though that could easily be offset if it is a good purchase that generates a much better business for e energy overall. Acquisition does not look expensive on ebitda basis and is sympatico with existing business.
Timster is right its 1 for the LFT. Its not even binary for sales. It is selling and sales will almost certainly get to a very usefully profitable level. The only binary thing is whether they go from that level to something that could multiply the sp. For example, demand that utilise european and rumoured medusa capax to the full on top of gad/abdx would see a run rate of about 720 million tests a year and margin of about the same amount leading to Templar's 5-10 quid sp scenario.
Wyn I think saying this is binary is misleading. It has two incredible platforms from which many radically sp changing opportunities are likely to emerge in the next months and years. Its one reason I am steadfast - no matter if certain specific projects have limited success or fail their is a rich seam to mine and a large poss of T/O.
The price has more than halved for a bunch of reasons. First price rose to high 2s not because us diehard holders thought it was worth that and more based on potential but largely because a bunch of short term traders piled on top and many of us added on the basis of what we felt were likely to be massive imminent contracts. It was also buttressed by a big institution in US. When they started bailing and the massive contracts were not materialising around the same time the price understandably went down. The downward momentum no doubt led to some who wanted to stay in fully deciding that it was prudent to bail or reduce. And many more probably bailed in the high to mid 1s because they were fed up sitting on losses or seeing their profits down.
As for why it stays down at these levels. Well we have heard so many rumours and had so many hopes and most have not materialised yet and some never will. People know this, they know the inaccurate company messaging and don't trust it. So we can reasonably expect muted reactions to everything except hard and very strongly positive fact.
That said you can of course trade against the general malaise of lack of confidence in this. If you agree with Templar - as I do - that 5-10 quid sp is possible (if not as early as christmas then at least some time in first half of 2022) then it may be worth punting some cash if avct is not in your pf or is a small proportion of it and for those of us who this doesn't apply to it is at least another reason to steadfastedly hold.
Myles is good but also sounds like a cheerleader for his holdings at times. On Ava6K his 50% CoS prognostication is an example. A little research shows me that in Oncology the chances of successfuly getting through phases 1 and 2 are on avarage closer to around 20%. It has wow animal results and should not fail out for want of funding but its hard to put a percentage uprate on that. Doing so with such confidence as he does is disguising a speculative guess as an informed estimate and is therefore too rampy. Nonetheless even at, say, 25 or 30 per cent this is a superb punt of a share in the long term especially with other major shots on goal