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Rivaldo is right to say you have to look at risk and reward. I guess you also look at momentum - if there is a wave ride it for a long way before strepping off. Its also maybe a long term hold with factors like brexit, supply chain, hgv drivers, emissions all playing in to the need to maximise on local production/yield. Plus a runway for the company to expand in Europe and North America
If you want back in without paying higher then worth noting that IIG didn't move yesterday or today - now about 20 per cent undervalued because its LST stake isn't being properly appreciated
1m of LST at 20 per cent discount for 8p - LST now closing in on quadruple that price - close to 3m profit. Haven't worked out IIG NAV but must be over 11m - with the share price 20 per cent short of that as an MCAP. Bargain.
Clearly most market participants are seeing it as a potentially much larger cap stock over time and are reacting accordingly. Sector opportunity and specific quality of companies tech. Who knows when it settles or settles back.
I hate coal but if Welsh govmt drags its feet maybe SAE should make a public point of exploring who they could licence coal production to for the duration of the licence. That might promote some horsetrading and get them a lengthened licence for their less pollutive and more green plastic/wood pellet solution
Linde is an obvious potential purchaser - either very soon or at the latest once the first DMG is built and working. This is a growing market fits their activities well. They have the money to build out the units at a fast pace and make a notable difference to their carbon footprint and popularity with their customers who are attempting to do the same. I would not be particularly surprised if they made an offer within a year - perhaps trying to buy low for 10 or 15p a share if the sp has not already burst up to these levels, 20-30 if it has.
good place to be if it was him you were looking for.
Been reading a bit about offshore combo energy source projects - seems to strengthen the economic case and opportunities for tidal when its combined with wind etc.
while we are on the subject of eggy I thought he sold out of RMS at break even or small loss. Management was a **** show there. Great product though those masks
EGTP. I agree he's always been more interested in the therapy side. But you cannot seriously say he played down the testing side.
He was happy to say it was coming soon last summer prior to the placing. He was happy to talk last christmas about a transformation q1 that left the impression the lft was going to be selling and maybe BAMS in volume too. And this spring he was happy to talk about inking deals, high demand for the test and the 30m European production capacity as well as potential to use govmt machines.
The fact is that whilst I trust affimers to be the basis of amazing diagnostics and I trust AS and colleagues on the science, I don't trust him to convey the story of commercialisation accurately. He told it wrongly on time frames. He gave us reasons to have high expectations. He underdelivers. And now he simply moves the narrative to therapy being the near term driver which says to me he doesnt have the carpe diem mentality for rapidly advancing commercialisation of what is a truly amazing lft. Some of the smarter market player sussed this at the late spring presentation. I wish I had been smart and sold it right down from a very large to very small holding at the mid 2s level. And then bought in again at this price because the price is now an overreaction downwards given the platforms and potential.
of course massive market. We need to see some much better speed in capturing a decent slice of it
hi gmcc - good post on traction points. The break even one is largely a case of how well the lft does. There are still possibilities for more substantial contracts for it, esp. with the added data (which also strengthens specificity)
jsp what is the point of that until we know that govmt is not going to purchase more?
We are on a list from which purchases can be made. Does not mean that any public body plan to purchase. Though they bloody well ought to.
personally I would be happy for another company to take diagnostics for a few hundred million. I think its a great side of the business. I am massively impressed by the products that have been and will be produced. But mightily disappointed with commercialisation efforts so far.
Sounds like they were trying to diversify range, and maybe get economies in production and distribution. Purchasing avacta diagnostics is a slightly different set of benefits. But plenty of them - specifically affimers would enable them to lower input costs, get more consistent product, improve performance of existing products and develop new ones that antibodies wouldn't be sensitive enough for, better meet ethical standards (no harm to animals in producing affimers)
There is a shortage of global tests + We have the best test + We are selling around 1million = big disconnect somewhere. Clearly the story of us being the best test is not being properly told and sold. Its not enough to say that we are a small company etc. We manage to combine with the likes of LG Chem and Moderna for therapeutic innovations and with Cytiva for making the test. So their is not really a good excuse for not selling the **** out of the test and ramping production to match. It feels like everyone's volume when they look at the potential has been turned down to virtually mute when we should be asking what arrangements they are making to have some effing ambition.
You seem to be describing a sentiment driven trading strategy that results in loss of capital. if the fundamentals of a company are **** you may want to sell it. If they are good and you bought it at a price you regard as cheap isn't it better to avoid acting on the depressed sentiment and simply wait out for the sun to shine again (or buy even more to average down)?
Ophidian - I loved your plane analogy. And of course it is quite right. To expand the trial they must have found that the attempt to target had at least some effect - if it was just the same as bog standard dox they would have packed up the trial. And to be 'very pleased' with how its going so far perhaps suggests that the targeting went very well. Doesn't mean as good as in animals necessarily but it doesn't need to be. Added to this we have a patient who one might guess is having a better therapeutic effect so far than would be expected on standard doxa and has probably had the same or perhaps less ill effects.
A long way to go and quite a bit of guesstimation about what's happening. But its all material. I am personally very excited here. Just trying to keep feet on the ground too.
don't understand why just royalty? why not more ambition?