Member Info for ImaWinner

All - not posted on this board forever and have been following Niox in all its incarnations over the last 12yrs.

I picked up circa 100k shares at 14p several years ago.

Suffice to say I am quite pleased with developments over and above the recent buy back.

But truth be told, the offer seems a little light given the chunky tax loss and may need to factored in.

But an all cash offer is excellent. Perhaps a nice CVR too as an add on.

Well played by the Board indeed.

This is getting to be interesting now. Am sure you have seen PM re-table $1Bn plus offer for VEC as part of their 'Beyond Nicotine' strategy, this being in competition to the PE bid from Carlyle. IMHO a cigarette maker does not sit well with a healthcare company nor its clients, but may be good for this stock sentiment, as combining an asthma product company with an asthma diagnostic company is a reasonable idea. This may have somewhere to run still.

RNS's out today. Oryx looked as though they picked up the large sale as a purcase

All - I came across this company in my ordinary course of business today.

https://bellerophon.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bellerophon-therapeutics-announces-first-patient-treated

Its a US company who got emergency FDA approval to use pulsed inhaled Nitric Oxide in COVID-19 trials as its a potent vasodilator.

Mighten this be an opportunity for CIR to do the same with Lung Fit? LF is meant to be best in class and useable in any situation as its mobile and independent of any hospital infrastructure?

Perhaps the BD chaps at CIR could think laterally and follow this up if they are watching!

Yes. Good indications which will backstop their Option positions which have a trigger of 62.5p. Per previous posts, historic senior management never bought any of the stock with own funds and relied on freebie gimme options. This is an excellent indication of new teams direction, realism, and most of all professionalism.

This resolution will pass with out any issue.

Per my previous posts, CIR did not have the rights of AZ products outside of US, and I had suggested we had to wait and see if they could pull something off here against the embedded behemoths of GSK and BI to name but two. The AZ products are good ones but unfortunately they arrived a little to late to the COPD party and simply don't have the scale to succeed. Covid19 may actually prove a positive outcome for them to allow the return of rights of AZ. And so CIR for now becomes solely focussed on NioX and its FeNO operations, CIR having decided to 'write off' its respiratory technology acquisition Prosonix a while back too, and its allergy technology suffering a spectacular fail. It has essentially become a beefed up Aerocrine, the Swedish company it bought at the same times as Prosonix in 2015. Debt free is good, but whether the broker rerates are sufficiently attractive to see a material uptick in share price remains to be seen. Of worthy note in the RNS is that the performance conditions for the management new PSP based incentives still have the 62p trigger. We need to give IJ a chance and trust they can deliver. Watch out for Broker rerates in the first instance. Taking profits as and when you can in the mean time is IMHO a reasonably strategy, particularly if it goes past 30p.

@JAdam.

Was wondering where you have been for this last week as the Board is now attracting a wealth of new comments from insightful posters.

Missing your insight here chap!

FD20 and all. I suspect the quality of any prediction is determined by who you drink tea with, have lunch with, and whether or not you have any successful track record and direct operational experience at senior level in this particular segment of the pharmaceutical industry. Per previous note, this is a HOLD and see what happens and I am happy to confirm I have more than a decent size position in CIR. Early US Duaklir numbers may yet disappoint, we will have to wait and see. Yes its a fundamentally good product and sells quite well ex-US where CIR does not have marketing rights. The US COPD market is dominated by the behemoths that are GSK and Boehringer Ingelheim with very well established franchises and multi $Bn products. IG has been brought in by RG to do a job and I am certain he will not mess around. best all !

All. I suspect that CIR will be the subject of a trade sale 12 to 18 mths from today. My read of the tea leaves certainly suggests that. I had not also realised that the new Exec Chair IG is very much RG's man and they have a very strong record together as have IG and the new CFO. CIR is IMHO on a defined forward path. I suspect the price trigger on IGs option whilst being the floor price for an exit, the exit price may not be too far different to it. Summarising, HOLD and wait.

Extremely positive RNS posted at 3.18 PM.

'.. convinced there is a clear path to profitability'.

It is very clear now that with the (overdue) changing of the guard we are in for a very good few months. Fingers crossed and please lets hope that Duaklir makes some in roads into the US.

CFO departure today follows departure of CEO and SVP R&D. That triumvirate had been together for a long time...

We now have a completely different leadership team who i) have a demonstrable track record of success 2) are properly incentivised to drive proper value 3) have their own paid up skin in the game and 4) have worked together before.

Key IMHO remains Duaklir numbers 6-9 months post launch.

FYI ALL - Litigation matter is somewhat of an irrelevance and I would not worry a jot about it.

Heres to a very HNY and wishing all the best to the new Leadership team.

Well this is welcome news! First time ever share options have been granted with a Share Price performance target. There were never any such explicit targets before. 3 yr SP of 62p is 3X where it is today. Suggests IJ is in for long term with options over 4M shares and at last we have a real value accrual based performance metric.

Well this is all a bit fruity...

Extracted from the SEC filings associated with their recent fund raise...

The (CIR) Agreement shall continue until the Company’s last patents or improvement patents expire (the “Initial Term”). Commencing on the first day following the Initial Term, and on each day thereafter, the term shall automatically be extended for one additional day so that a constant three (3) year term will always be in effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, either party may terminate the Agreement upon the occurrence of certain events, including (i) material default or breach that is not or cannot be reasonably cured within sixty (60) days of the notification of such material default or breach or (ii) certain bankruptcy, insolvency, reorganization, dissolution or liquidation events

Now either party can terminate 'on occurrence of certain events'. Looking at the last one in (ii) could it be that in fact BeyondAir are claiming they have reorganised themselves via the offering, that they can unilaterally terminate?

Would be bonkers if so the Licensing Agreement allowed for that situation, and if it was this the press release would be different.

Now it says termination for Material Breach, but any breach has to be notified and the other side is allowed time to repudiate or fix, in this case 60 days. So what happened 60 days ago? They can not have possibly claimed breach ahead of their December fund raise as it would need to be disclosed as a material event in the SEC filings and Prospectus, else the raise is undertaken on false premises, a big No No.

So in summary, I observe this is a rather clumsy press release and I simply cant see how they could claim or achieve this without legal recourse from CIR. Smells like a rat, and per my previous post on this topic, its not material anyway to forward value and totally unrelated to asthma or COPD ambitions.

And if it is them trying to get the product back, such behaviour is unbecoming and I am not sure I would want them as a partner anyway.

Totally bizarre. Will post if I find out more.

Viz COPD, Duaklir is a late entrant. Tudorza is on the market and has been for a while. Again read the Prospectus from 2 and half years ago or more recent press releases to understand benefits and new labels will help against incumbents. Duaklir does a a few hundred million outside of US (See AZ reporting as they retain the rights)

The FeNO test is world leading for asthma diagnosis and control. CIRs test is market leader and is the only one used by big pharma in trials too. It has multiple regulatory approvals but is a different model to selling a drug. Ultimately its a bit of a razor blade model but potentially very high value if combined digital asthma dherence. My belief is it is the Gold Standard and China is key (very different healthcare system here and paid mostly out of pocket)

MiniBox is excellent and allows much more throughput for plethysmography than can be done with full 'BODYBOX' systems. Its a real winner for physicians as the test is fully reimbursed and its a simple method of maximising return from footfall in your office rather than sending someone to hospital. Its also a perfect channel for FeNo sales too.

LungFit follows a similar razor blade model (their is a consumable in the bedside kit) and has some core advantages over current standard of care, but am less excited about this for now as it remains early and not yet approved. Capital sales into hospitals even those with a good business and clinical rationale can be challenging.

Quite possibly yes

JA - I concur that that MrK may be ill informed one way or another. IMHO a lot. Conflating such disease states with profiteering is bordering on being utterly distasteful. FYI there has been a lot of nonsense lately in the press about the HFA propellant used in metered dose inhalers (i.e, the pressurised ones used for children in the main who either don't have the inspiratory flow or co-ordination to do anything otherwise) and their alleged contribution to global warming. This of course is a load of tosh (I shan't bore you with history of Montreal protocol etc). CIRs inhalers however are all dry powder based i,e. non propellant so can certainly considered green in this area, the PressAir device being IMHO best in class having spent more than 20 years of my life in the pharma industry and 15 years in respiratory product development in one shape or another with variety of different pharmacos and understanding the metrics of the AZ deal well (read the original prospectus for the class 1 transaction if you want more). The real key to CIR near term success will be how well it can take share from the behemoths of the US COPD space like BI's Spiriva, Stiolto and GSKs triple product, and perhaps some of the newer very very expensive monthly injectable biologicals. All 3 are once a day products, Tudorza (mono LAMA) and Duaklir (LAMA/LABA combo) are both twice a day products. But don't worry, the product labels CIR have are very competitive indeed and circa 50% of physician folk think twice a day is actually better than once a day, particularly in the key area of compliance and adherence which is key to keeping your condition stable. Lets see what the first six months scripting volume look like. If even mildly positive, we can all be super excited for the near term.

This is actually a major milestone not only for CIR but AZ and the ultimate originator of the products Almirall. Congrats where congrats should be due here. Duaklir is an excellent product in IMHO the worlds best multi-dose dry powder inhaler. CIR will also benefit from a fully established supply chain as the product is already widely marketed outside the US, the ability for patients to step up and down from mono to dual therapy and back again in the very same device, and has unique labelling to that of other products in the space. There is also a lot of data to support twice a day dosing can be better than once a day dosing for a whole range of reasons. Whilst coming a little late to the party, this really does have good potential. Fingers crossed the COPD sales force and deliver. Fingers crossed.

I agree PP10. Interesting to observe that SPs have risen quite well in other Woodford backed enterprises once he has traded out. I suspect that until he is fully out, then CIR will remain bouncing around a bit. Register will sort itself out and then we can get back to basics. Ill watch from afar over summer and revert to comment in and around interims. It is also worthwhile to remember that Woodford pretty much cornerstoned UK Biotech for the last forever, and without many companies would have gone under or would not be hear today.

All - Don't you fit ironic that SJP ditch Woodford and then pick up 4% on the cheap? Looks like good business if not sharp business real politik at play to me.

And AZ will not sell down their position. They dont need too and there are any number of inter-related reasons they need CIR to be succesful in the promotion of Tudorza and Duaklir. And the money CIR owe to AZ is backstopped by their vendor loan too.

We all just need to sit tight for now.