Member Info for ID78

I’m a bit behind, haven’t even read todays conversation.

The HL timeframes annoyed me when I first invested and tried to understand the length of a HL cycle. Robbie in an interview stated ‘20,000t - and that’s EVERY MONTH’ (he was talking about plant 3). It seemed to confirm the cycle is 1 month. APG, your numbers tie in with the June presentation, so I am prepared to ignore Robbie’s comment. As you say the recovery factor will go up for a 90day leach, not included in the presentation figures.

One question, APG. If HL (plant 3 +4) is 140,000 tonnes every 3 months, 560,000t a year. Then the remaining tonnage is 364,000t (from the 924,000t figure).

This is 30,000 t a month through plants 1 and 2. But (I think) your numbers stick with half this, 15000 tonnes a month through plants 1 and 2;

‘15tpm x 2.5g/t x 91% / 31.1 = 1,097oz’

Using 15000tpm does give gold production numbers that match the presentation but there seems to be a missing 15000tpm? To balance the 924,000tpm plants 1 and 2 should be processing 30,000tpm?

Knowing me I’ve probably missed something.

Looking forward to going through your posts properly (tomorrow) APG. I’m certainly glad you realised I was joking :)

Wake up Aprogerson, you need to re-do all those calcs with 15.71g/t.

‘The first target identified for development is Kilimapesa Hill where samples of vein exposures recorded grades up to 8.74 g/t, the second target is Teng Teng where underground development and drilling returned average grades of 15g/t and RC drilling intercepts include 2m @ 28.11 g/t and 1m @ 57.41 g/t.’

Average grades of 15g/t….. lovely

‘Ore >3 g/t is considered high grade and mined. In 2017-2019, average underground ore grade was 4.1 g/t and ROM ore from the underground mine has traditionally been supplemented by tailings from artisanal mining activities which have accounted for up to 40% of the process plant feed’

Lots more info and certainly more appealing to investors..

Yeah, go on APG, I think you do. Maybe even take the full week off??

Thanks for posting, I have little time to go through this but hopefully tomorrow as there is a wealth of information there to pick through.

I’m going to assume most people here will have been on the GGP BB. In comparison to this BB it’s a s**t show.

There are some really cracking posts here and not just from APG.

Just catching up on todays posts.

Again some very detailed posts by APG, thank you. Your numbers are quite different to the latest presentation and I understand where they come from and the reasoning for using them is sound. It shows what I was trying to say- the grade of gold previously mined and the volume of ore they are intending to mine (in the presentation) does not produce the amount of gold in the presentation. Using the grace of gold previously mined will completely smash the gold numbers in the recent presentation.

I was very confused last week when I saw the amount of gold they anticipated producing, the numbers didn’t stack up, even with low recovery factors. One thought, was the HL could, as suggested, take 60days but then the recovery factor should increase.

It all comes back to grade, the amount of gold for the volume of ore just suggests low grades. But this is good for 2 reasons first it helps boost the gold resource if you drop the cut off. Second when we mine higher grade areas then the gold produced will go through the roof (relative to the numbers in that presentation). Everything just feels very conservative and worst case. And so yes it adds to the sentiment that risk is being removed as they progress the project.

One other thing - the gold from plant 2 is so small. Is it even economical (135oz) ? Is something else planned for plant 2 further down the road??

As APG says the main hurdle (provided the MRE comes in as we expect), is that they need to mine so much more ore!

Still digesting some of the posts- Greg, thanks for the posts about the finances.

Itsyou - yes that does look like a second ball mill and do you notice the plot in the slices with the drill holes is more detailed, circular patterns and ore concentrations instead of the rough blocks. It doesn’t do anything to help my predictions, it is just interesting to see what the drill results do to change the model.

Anyway, thanks all for the posts, have a good evening, and here’s hoping we get the MRE next week.

There is one thing I think I’d maybe lost in translation.

The hill is just not high grade when you compare to the potential of the other prospects. Vim-Rutha, Teng Teng, Maghor all suggested to be 12g/t against the hill having an average of 2.44g/t. It is classes low grade in comparison to the regions we have not yet drilled (or just started to drill).

Thanks, APG - I think we are saying the same thing in that plants 1 and 2 will treat the high grade ore once they find it. Currently the pesentation shows plant 2 producing 10% of the gold of plant 1 which is low.

If they start mining higher grade ore areas (higher than the hill) the gold from plants 1 and 2 could easily double. For plant 1 that is 21000oz alone.

I guess they have to base projections on what they know, and they know the hill and have yet to drill much elsewhere.

My long winded point is that again everything seems to be based on worst case (eg lowest gold grades in the licence).

There really is huge upside to the numbers in that presentation.

And if you read the prospectus there is a table that suggests 130,000oz could be in the hill and a total of 300,000oz for all the gold in the licence. Of course, the JORC moved that figure of 130,000 up significantly as will the ERM when it lands.

But using these numbers, just under half the gold was expected to be in the hill. Just over half in the rest of the licence. At the same time, the hill was assumed (and is looking like it is) low grade. The other areas, high grade with 12g/t suggested.

My point. If we get 4 plants running, if we get to 2000oz. They might switch plant 2 to high grade ore and that 2000oz could grow significantly - if we they find it. Just more thoughts about how 2000oz could be a low ball figure. If they can mine enough low grade ore.

Greg,

Safe to say I’m not quite as bullish as you, but I sure hope you are right and I’m wrong

ATB

@onlyoneshareme- I’m of the same opinion, it is production and gold sales that will move the SP properly into an upwards trend. Production is the last thing niggling me, and in particular mining that amount of ore. They need to mine each month the tonnage that they mined in all of Q1 of this year….. and that is for the 15196 oz a year figure.

Anyway, MRE predictions….

-Greg: 1mill oz now, 2mill by end of year
-Aprogerson: 1mill oz by end of year
-Me: I think we could get close to 1mill now (if we still count red ray), but I can’t see 2mill oz by the end of year.

Interesting, suddenly my calculation of an average grade of 1.11g/t through plants 2-4 doesn’t look so stupid.

I really would like to see the EMR. Meanwhile the Caracal website is down. I wonder what they changes they are making.

Hmmm the presentation from last week. Slide 11, they 3D block representation on slide 11. The gold grades turn ‘hot’ (turn red) at about 0.5g/t.

I just don’t know, but extending the strike length and dropping the cut-off grade, it all has to help significantly grow the resource.

The HL pads were a great move, helping to make the low grade ore in the hill more economical to mine .

Interesting because 3 of the plants are to process low grade ore, so ore from open pit mining?

So does the cut-off grade drop to 0.5g/t when previously it was 1?…..

Ooooh naked mole rat you say…. Suggins I’m listening

While we wait - there was some chat about gold grades. I found this:

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/index/gold/gold-grade/

For open pit 0.5-1.0 g/t is average grade and 1.5+ G/t is high grade….

interesting but not as interesting as a naked mole rat

JC - I agree the MRE may not give much of a lift, for me I’m keen to see the MRE as it will give me additional peace of mind. As I see it there are 3 main risks, and having enough gold is one, which I am relaxed about but seeing it in the MRE would out any niggling doubts to bed.

(Another if the risks is financing and thanks to many posts on here and Treks post last night, I am completely relaxed about that side of things)

Drilling started in December 21. There has been 7 months of drilling… if the culmination of all that work (EMR report) slips by a week or two then so be it.

Delays to the report don’t change the gold in the ground, the gold being poured or that the company is self financing.

Trek, you’re probably a little used to delays (TXP) and not bothered one jot.