Member Info for ID78

@jerseycrew - I always appreciate your posts. I hope you do well here.

Never say never, maybe I will buy back however for now I’m out.

All the best

Thanks Trek, appreciated. I can not fathom the production figures at GCAT. The fact they can’t steady the ship from production is beyond me. That then leads in to IF they got the funding could they ever do the 2000oz.

Anyway, I bought a bit of TU today… might buy some TXP.

Re TGA - thanks, saw the pullback and so maybe a good time to buy but I’ll look to TXP..

Enjoy your holidays!! Where in the highlands are you heading to?

Apro-

Plant 3 - fully agree regarding the wording re closed and mid cycle.

I expected Q3 to be poor it was. I expected Q4 to be better. It wasn’t. There was nothing in the update about measures to increase production which suggests Q1 will not be good either. And this is why I sold.

I full agree - yes they need to get funding but that is in the hands of others to some degree. What IS in their hands is what they produce and sell and it needs a reboot (to put it mildly) … but from that update there is no focus on this. Previous updates laid out measures, steps going forward and expectations. There was nothing. This is why I sold up today. There seems to be little to no focus or direction on production. .

@legalwolf - correct (re higher production earlier in the year and the loss).

What I fully cannot understand is how plant 3 is closed when it is full of ore. Surely this is poor communication? Plant 3 is full of ore and mid cook cycle, it was closed to more ore being added. After completion of the cook cycle it will be emptied and recharged with ore? So surely it is working away, leaching??

I also am confused, I thought it was several pads at various stages of the cook cycle, which at most was 3 months?

It should not be hard to write these updates more clearly. Unless they don’t want to tell the full story and leave us guessing on purpose?

Good luck everyone.

I will add - given the financial concerns - IF Robbie thought they could produce enough gold to pay the bills he would say this and talk of the steps forward to increasing production from the low figures reported.

Nothing is said on this subject. At all.

So they are not capable of significantly increasing production from that reported? (Without finance and the mine expansion).

So it all hinges on the finance - how much, how soon, and by what means???…

Trek - finally bailed on GCAT after yesterday’s news.

Very annoyed I didnt buy TXP below 60p!

Are you aware of TGA? Any thoughts??

All the best to you RP (and congratulations)

I’m afraid I’m also out. It seems they need funding to keep going. This shouldn’t be the case. With the improvements made to production (HL) I would have hoped for near 1000oz a month. The average from the Q3, Q4 numbers are 1/3 of this. I have my doubts of whether 650oz is enough to pay the bills, but they can’t even hit 650.

I can not understand why the production is so low. February last year the Q2 ops update was talking about implementing the final phase to double production to 2000oz. When have they ever hit 1000oz a month for a quarter?? That was misleading to say the least. Here we are 1 year later and 1/3 of that 1000oz!!

They badly need funds - but are unable to concentrate on gold production. HL plant 3 (according to the Oct presentation can do 200oz a month. Again the update in Feb last year talked of near 2100oz gold on carbon for that quarter (no HL).. so near 700oz a month? So 900oz is achievable and they are doing less than 400oz??

No talk of how to increase gold production, nothing about stabilising things and just meeting costs. It’s all about finance. So… how soon do they need it and what happens if they don’t get it? Simon Games Thomas - his departure I think tells us what he thinks of the financial state of play.

For now I’m out, GLA

@Aprogerson - I agree with the back to basics.

Again you have gone through the production numbers and you as always have a better handle on this than me… but going back to the October presentation

Assuming they had the money for the mine expansion

Plant 1 - full production - 10515 oz a year.
Plant 3 - full production - 2343 oz a year

Assuming plant 1 produces half this as the mine expansion is not financed then total production = 2343 + 0.5 x 10515 = 7600oz, which is 634oz /more month.

This is close to your 650oz number, Apro.

So Robbie - are you able to come up with a plan to get to 650oz (plan B) or does everything hang in the balance as we hope you get the finance? (plan A).

@Apro- agreed the HL cook time makes no sense.

I think the funding issue should surely be concentrating minds on generating cash. Making what they have work as best they can.

Mine Expansion, drilling for more gold - all secondary. Start paying the bills with what you produce!

Plant 2 doesn’t contribute much (I think).

Plant 3 has reached capacity and is stopped. This doesn’t make sense - if it is at capacity it is working at full capacity, it is not stopped.

Q4 treated tons = 19613 tons when this is the tons throughly the CIL circuit (alone) and an a FURTHER 6895t passed through HL? Also makes no sense.

I’m beginning to think it’s me that’s stupid.

*production not prism

Legal - yeah, not even thrown us a bone with ‘Q1 prism anticipated to be significantly higher due to (something).

So Q1 anticipated to be poor?

Q4 2021 - gold sales were 1047oz

Q4 2022 - HL in play - gold sales 835oz

So after a full years progress gold sales are 80% lower than before. What is going on?!!!!

Less than *900oz* for the quarter

@Apro - is it 900oz a month? I’m reading it as less than 800oz for the quarter…

Also, the ratio of gold produced to sold was 99% I think from Sept on…

Confuse me

Assuming 75% recover from CIL and 40% from HL

- Q3 CIL = 23790t x 1.61g/t x 0.75 / 31.1 = 924oz
- Q3 HL = 29919t x 0.99g/t x 0.40 / 31.1 = 381oz
- Q3 total = 1300 oz (far above the reported 806oz)

- Q4 CIL = 19613t x 1.80g/t x 0.75 / 31.1 = 762oz
- Q4HL = 6859t x 0.86g/t x 0.40 / 31.1 = 76oz
- Q3 total = 837 oz (close to the reported 835oz)

Don’t understand the Q3 numbers. Don’t get why the HL is so low in Q4.

Produce and sell gold and make money!!!! Less than 900oz a quarter is just making no sense!!

@Jerseycrew - great post.

Looking at the SP, and the value of my shares - well it’s hard. And emotion comes into it, hard not to after where we were before Xmas.

But most of what you say I keep reminding myself.

MCAP is what £8mill… if they produce 500oz gold a month that’s 500 x (1900-1150) = $3,750,000 a year profit from mining and selling gold.

If, and we suspect this is doable, they can manage to sell 1000oz a month then they make $7.5mill profit from gold sales a year - and based on that a 20 year life of mine. MCAP is £8mill with over 1mill oz gold. The MCAP just doesn’t add up. The worry is of course that they are selling enough gold to pay the bills. We need that clarified - unequivocally

The business case remains there for all to see. As you say, worst case - some dilution to push the gold sales on further to 2000oz. Worst case…. Funding can still be achieved.

How Robbie handles this will give us an idea of the metal of the man. I do think he needs to recruit and wisely. He’s spinning too many plates just now.

Legalwolf - agree’d, they are firefighting just now and they need something positive to report (Q4 update).

If Robbie could come out and state they are generating enough cash to keep going and dilution is not needed that would be huge. If he could then state how much gold they can sell without expansion and without a fund raise, to show this. That again would be a step forward. Assuming of course they can produce enough gold.

Then if he could to state the funding is only needed to get to 2000oz, and that as of Q4 the gold sales are sufficient to pay the bills and fund exploration at Kilimepesa (even if they delay Tanzania … if needed).

Right now we are in the dark, completely, and releasing the Q3 figures on their own I suspect will just cause more panic and worry.

Q4 and Q3 updates will be released close together to show the company is moving in the right direction (I hope!)

Dmors, legalwolf - It can be read either way. But let’s face it he’s not going to post on LinkedIn that he made a mess of things and was pushed out (note: I’m not saying by that is what happened- none of us really know).

Ambiguity and leaving it open to interpretation does his reputation minimal harm is what I’m trying to say here, and this is what he has done.

I also wonder how much he can say, would he have and NDA being in the position he was in?

Ultimately I’m not sure what we can read into his linked in statement with any certainty.

I also remember the words of a neighbour- in any dispute there is one side, the other side … and somewhere in the middle lies the truth.

So to me this is noise, GCAT needs to get producing and selling gold in reasonable quantities.

Thanks legalwolf, but credit to Aprogerson tbf, I just waffled on about what he/she said :)

Always appreciate your posts legalwolf