Member Info for ID78

Thanks Bryn

Not exactly a full comparison but clearly shows MTL are undervalued. 72k oz and a MCAP £34mill

Q3 results took 6 weeks to be released, we’re now at 8 weeks for Q4 results… must be next week surely?

SHG vs MTL

Does anyone here know the AISC for MTL? I know SHG is $1200-$1300 / oz.

Anyway, a rough comparison

SHG - MCAP > 100mill, debt =?
- production = 65koz a year
- AISC = (say) $1250/oz.
- Life or mine at New Luika = 5 years

New production coming online soon at Singida
- Production = 32koz,
- AISC?
- Life of mine = 6 years

So, assuming additional production is priced into the MCAP then 97koz a year

MTL - MCAP = £34mill
- 72koz production
- AISC - I have as similar to SHG but don’t trust my notes!
- LOM = 6 years.

Long winded way of saying

- same LOM, similar AISC
- SHG production is 35% more
- SHG SP is 3 times MTL…

MTL undervalued?

700tpd (target) is 42,000 tonnes of ore a quarter (700x5daysx12weeks). I think the W3 and Q4 updates showed they were mining this amount of ore but producing something like 350oz a month?

Ultimately the numbers didn’t make sense.

I’m a little curious about the CIS plant being called a ‘pilot plant’.

Good to see them going about the business of producing gold, let’s hope the Q1 update shows more than 350oz a month.

The 70% drop reflects funding is not a certainty but more to the point is some distance away and money was needed (CLN) to pay the bills in the meantime as the gold production was surprisingly low in Q4.

Ultimately the drop reflects the financial health of the company. The CLN means they keep going for now but another CLN will be needed unless production increases or unless the mine expansion funding lands. Neither are a given and the SP reflects this.

High risk - high reward potentially

Swampmonster the ‘mood swings’ are based on facts

- little mine expansion funding despite the announcements before Xmas and desperately needing cash as a consequence

- particularly poor production figures after a years work on developing the mine and heap leach (ie worse production numbers in Q4 2022 than Q4 2021 despite apparent improvements)

- needing funds (CLN) to keep the lights on, otherwise GCAT would have ground to a halt and gone belly up

Instead of mood swings it was a complete loss of confidence. After a year of promises little was delivered.

IF 1000oz a month can be produced then this changes everything. Again, not a mood swing but simply they have finally managed to produce gold in significant amounts and hopefully remove the need for further CLNs which are very unwelcome.

Make no mistake - current production levels can not pay the bills and CLNs are required as things stand today.

The 1000oz a month would change everything. Based on the facts. However they apparently did 1000oz one month last year which gave me confidence in the production numbers being achievable. then we saw the shocking production numbers for the year were well short of that.

The jury is still completely out and gcat for me and could go will either way. I watch from the sidelines. Any significant change to production or funding does change everything. Not mood swings, just facts.

Ahh ok, thanks SW

@sw1000 - where is the new chap?

It’s been 5 weeks since Simon Thomas resigned. Have I missed the RNS? Or has nobody been formally announced?

* their own money not other end money

Flipping phone autocorrect

(apparently new is not a word on my phone- nee, however, is)

* decent chunky buys not guys!!

I went through the Director purchases since October and I’m seeing it as £333469 of their other end money spent on buying shares.

£242,298 of that was at a price of 35p or higher….

That does give a bit of confidence.

The CFO has spent £154,000 of his own money (I think).

Decent chunky guys IMO

Ummm - did he buy them or was he given them? I’m seeing at as shares awarded for performance?

However in the last 6 months the CFO has spent nearly £154k of his own money on shares.

The rest of the director buys have come to another £180k, I think. Pretty significant buys.

All but £90k of the total £333k are at prices 35p or above…

TPX - dropped from 225p to 25p. Noticeable director buying recently, institutional interest. Paying out a minimal dividend.

Also - Portfoliopower- I like the look of MEN… thanks to your fine notes

As a Scot living in Scotland - I’ll be glad to see the back of her.

I suspect her replacement will be someone else I also can’t stand. Ho hum.

Trek, I actually completely agree with every word (even the higher pay).

Attract the right people, and get them to do the job properly.

Legalwolf, this is what made this board so strong. The parts you focus on (finance) - I’m just not great on it. Yourself and Trek are strong there.

The mining numbers however, and thanks to Aprogerson and others I could get a handle on them.

And it was this level of understanding from trusted posters that gave me confidence in GCAT. (I know, I shouldn’t trust a stranger on a BB but having given you are now classed a deramper by some showed you were cautious in your approach and I valued that, Trek I have been aware of for some time and have never doubted his or her integrity on any share)

To your question - we can’t draw any conclusions on the total resource estimate on the hill.

The only thing we can discuss is grade and not the total amount of gold. The MRE average grade for the hill is 1.5g/t

The ave grade through CIL was 1.7g/t.
The ave grade through HL was 0.93 g/t

The average of this is 1.31g/t - but that is not the full calc, more ore went to HL and could skew the average down:

(10kt x 1.7 g/t) + (35kt x 0.93 g/t) / 45kt = 1.10 g/t

But all we can deduce from that is they are hitting the lower grade regions of the hill.

As I said in Q1 the ave grade was 2.45g/t. … so that was from a higher grade section.

Which brings me to another question - could they not try to hit the higher grade regions to generate more money??

(Might not be easy to do, the higher grade regions might be further into the hill - and to be hit in a few years)

Sorry, rushed post and a bit of a mess there.

Anyway - Q1 : 18357t @ 2.64g/t and 26,489t @ 2.33g/t was delivered to the processing plant.

2.64g/t from underground
2.33 g/t from open pit

The grades explain the Q1 gold numbers I suspect. The grades haven’t been near this since.

I think the presentation provided an uncanny validation of your numbers, Apro.

The main thing was can they mine the ore - answer - yes (to produce 650oz gold. Probably if aiming over 800oz gold a month.

As you say H1 gold smelted = 2012oz c.w. H2 gold smelted = 1641 (20% lower) despite HL coming online and any work to bring the existing plant and extend the stopes.

It just doesn’t make sense, more clarity is needed in reporting - there is nothing offered as to why production is lower than before. There is nothing offered as to how to increase it or what level they can expect without additional investment. Just.. nothing.

And of course no idea of AISC!!

I suspect (can’t remember) if they really good 1266oz in Q1 (lol- really good, still not 650oz a month) - I think this maybe had a grade of 2.4g/t associated with it. I remember that figure appearing at one time.

So this maybe explains the bumper figure in Q1.

- Q2 was poor, 746oz.
- Q3, Q4 were 806 and 835oz….

So the average is close to 800oz a quarter. Less than 300oz a month.

One last thing - OCIM knew the Q3 mine data.

Did they know the Q4 mine data? I found it odd how they were not prepared to wait and see if they could get the security they wanted with the Kenyan authorities (Robbie suggests it could have been given in time).

So did OCIM see the Q4 data and at that point pull out as it was not what they expected to see?

All made up nonsense in my head, but I did feel a bit uneasy about how OCIM would not extend the long stop…. And try to work to a solution.

Can they mine enough ore? Always been a question.

Using aprogersons numbers and the October presentation on the Caracal website.

Plant 1
- Oct presentation = 10515oz full capacity. Assuming half this as 1 not 2 rock crushers = 5257oz a year = 438 oz a month.
- Aprogerson : 10000t ore x 1.7g/t x 80%recovery / 31.1 = 447oz
- The numbers tie together nicely
- plant capacity = 500t/day… 10000t =20 days
- assuming full capacity for a month = 15000t and 657oz a month

Plant 3
- Oct presentation = 2343oz a year = 195oz a month
- Aprogerson 35kt x 0.93g/t x 53% recovery / 31.1 = 554oz for the 3 month cook time so 554oz a quarter or 185oz/month
- ore needed = 35kt

Ore required

For 437+195= 632oz a month they need 3x10,000 +35,000= 65,000t of ore in a quarter

For 657+195= 852oz a month they need 3x15000+35000= 80,000t of ore in a quarter

In Q3 they mined 64,639t ore. So (in theory) they can mine enough ore for 632oz.

And in previous quarters they have mined near 45,000t ore (no HL - so high grade underground, assuming the low grade comes from a digger and too soil at the top of the hill - ie not underground)

To my mind they can mine and process enough ore for 650oz. Whether they can mine enough for more than this I’m still not sure (depends if the low grade stuff is from strip mining).

So I still do not understand why the gold sold a mi th is half the 650oz number!!