Member Info for ID78

JC, you could well be right there, but having made the comment I wish he’d clarified the position in the next interview he gave.

So we are 2 months today from the finance news, I was hoping 3 months for DD but I think Robbie suggested it could take up to 6 months?

One comment I have - it’s been suggested that the mine has been used as security so there is nothing left to back up an additional loan. This can not be correct.

1) If it were no longer viable to be used as security then they’d have to RNS the funding discussions that we are waiting on are now are over.

2) The mine is worth more than the CLNs just announced

The mine has been used as security but not all of it, and so it can still be used as security.

I was the one going on about 6/7 lenders and to be fair Robbie first stated there were 3 lenders doing DD last year and all 3 had been in touch the day the funding fell through.

He then stated later and additional 3 or 4 lenders were looking to do DD and they had a data room open.

I also remember Robbie talking of buying shares ….

Trust me, I’m not waiting for a better price…. unfortunately I’m waiting for funds to invest.

So maybe nearer $20mill FCF than $23mill.

I’m not invested (yet) however MTL is certainly catching my attention

So…maths gives me $23mill free cash for Q1 assuming $1235 AISC.

$18mill x (1850 - 1235) / (1715 - 1235) = $23mill free cash

If the POG reaches $1900 then it’s $24.9mill free cash a quarter and $100mill free cash a year.

Feel free to correct any mistakes..

Ahh ok, thanks pwlx

I’ll change that

- mountain permit
- proof of concept
- funding
- mining licence
- mine development / commissioning -
- production

So from here… the news flow will be

- Mining Licence
- Proof of concept
- Funding
- production (commissioning of mine)

Meanwhile Philippines is a free carry.

The tweets are useful in that they tell us

1) they mine is producing gold, but it implies that prior to the CLN and the subsequent flurry of tweets that the mine was not producing gold (other than what was baking in heap leach).

Therefore I suspect that in January not much was happening.

2) this quarter they have had one gold pour. How much gold that is I don’t really know.

In summary I think the Q1 gold production will be similar (or worse) than Q3, Q4 last year.

That’s as much as I can get from the tweets.

For me the biggest thing is the guys have done this before, developed an unloved asset and then sold the company.

The other one could turn around but the progress last year leaves you wondering if they are up to the job.

I also believe (here) they have a lot of skin in the game, £2mill of their own money?

Not invested here yet, but very keen to get involved before finding is announced

Thanks zaphod.

I made the assumption that SHGs price already includes the 50% increase in gold production - which is imminent - if that assumption is incorrect and IF the SHG SP increases 50% .. then

SHG valuation = (£113mcap x 1.5) + £20min debt = £189mill

Subtract MTLs debt of £67mill ($81mill) from £189mill = £122mill , however the MCAP is only £35mill.

And we are back to MTL producing 35% less gold but being valued significantly less….or am I making a mess of this calc?

Thoughts appreciated, these boards can be useful to bounce ideas.

Echo1 - had a quick look but I must have missed it. I did find a valuation but didn’t have any costs of mining (came up with a SP valuation of 6.8p but wasn’t overly detailed to me)

Jscapper - thanks so $180mill in diamonds to start with, could increase.

I’ll need to try and find the economics.

I’m right in saying the mining permit is expected in Q2?

Try again

SHG = £113 MCAP + $ 24mill = £133mill

MTL = £34 mil + $81mill = £101mill … and SHG (will) produce 35% more gold soon. Depends if the increase in production at SHG is already priced in.

Also depends whether the debt here is still $81mill

So assuming the MCAP is discounted by the debt:

SHG = £113 MCAP + $ 24mill = £137mill

MTL = £34 mil + $81mill = £101mill … and SHG (will) produce 35% more gold soon

SO evenly priced then… if MTL debt is still $81mill?

SHG debt = $24.3mill as of 18th Jan (Q4 update)..

Yeah I think so, and that’s the one I’ve lost faith in.

My plan was to start moving profits from there to here…. but that’s good obviously fallen apart.

Are you still invested here? It’s beginning to look interesting.

-Love the free carry for Batangas.
-$7mill capex to get to production at Kochang
-AISC is $630 an ounce??

I have lost a bit of faith elsewhere, meanwhile these guys have done it all before, grades are excellent and the headline figures (above) are exceptional

Thanks 799boy.

Is there a scoping study? Do we have any idea of how much they might mine and sell each month? Any idea of free cash flow? Had a quick look but found a reference to a scoping study in 2018, but they didn’t publish it

@legalwolf - the calendar probably fell off the wall

Sorry, crap joke everyone.

Borrowedfundsfrommummy

What is on Twitter happened all of last year, mines ore, produced gold. The thing is the amount was very low and didn’t pay the bills.

This is why there is negativity. Pictures on Twitter tell us nothing about how much gold is being produced