Member Info for ID78

I was invested here sometime ago and butted heads with some of you, I saw you as derampers. Ultimately you were right and I was wrong and the SP halved as the land permit never happened.

Genuine question, to those of you I thought were overly negative. Do you see the tide changing here? Do you think the land permit is imminent?

Some of the names I can’t remember, but 2 years ago there were a few very negative people on here- so it is to all of you that I aim this question (I just remember Hamm and Badprophet in particular).

If the doubters have changed their minds then that I find that a positive sign.

Good luck all (currently not invested but thinking about it)

Hmmmm. TRX being onsite.

SW1000 - do you think they may be a possible route to funding? A potential JV with TRX?..

Thanks SW, still half asleep and my post was gibberish.

Certainly the money already invested must work in their favour. Also, the fact they can (probably) do 1000oz a month, maybe a bit more, once the large HL pad is commissioned means they are looking at $8.4mill profit a year to service a $10mill debt (assuming $1950 POG).

So…. without the additional gold from the expansion the books will (probably) already be very healthy and the chance of default extremely low.

The large HL pad will (probably) change everything.

All depends on them producing the gold they say they can from the large HL pad...

Thanks JC

I’m more bullish on GCAT than say 4 weeks ago when I was concerned about the company continuing as a going concern. To me… 2 scenarios:

1) funding goes through and the SP rebounds

2) funding doesn’t go through - but they need on this HL pad means the route to 1000oz is now almost assured. Perhaps more funding (CLNs) will be needed until the gold starts coming from this HL, however this MCAP for a 1000oz a month gold company obviously is nuts. Of course the only caveat to this is that they have never produced the gold they said they would, so can they actually do it?

HOWEVER, I am more bullish on GCAT. Still not invested, mulling things over a bit…

I’m a bit confused about what he finance being advanced after less than 2 months, when RM suggested it would be 4 to 6 months (back in January). Bearing in mind RM is always very optimistic about timescales….

Anyway, don’t get me wrong, I feel like things have turned in the right direction but that we may not get news for a while (funding or gold pour)… and will they needs funds in the meantime?

All the best to you to JC, the wife’s Irish so it’ll probably be Paddy’s day more than the gold cup! Enjoy your weekend too my friend. I do think GCAT has turned a corner here.

Thanks P.power

Tbh it was a general comment and not GGP specific.

The feasibility study is needed to decide whether to proceed with a project and comes before funding.

Funding uncertainty and talk of dilution holds the SP back until funding is made certain.

That’s my take on things, I’m curious to see if others agree (I find these boards useful for learning!)

Question for you…

The feasibility study then highlights the CAPEX needed and so does the SP not suffer until funding is secured?

So the inflection point is more on funding being declared rather than the feasibility study?

Sorry - the £1mill from Orca pays for the HL and subsidises the mine until first gold

(Orca not OCIM)

I’m also a bit curious about the ‘profitable gold mine’ comment. It would be nice to know the AISC for Q3 & Q4. I still feel some of the OCIM funding turned the lights back on and funded the production flurry we have seen on Twitter.

The lower production numbers will mean the AISC is higher than the much quoted $1250ish number which assumes full production….

Anyway, things ARE looking up, but the gold from the huge HL is some way off and I think additional funding is needed both for expansion and to help keep the lights on as the gold production at present doesn’t pay the bills. Just my take.

Or maybe OCIM covers the cost of the large HL and subsidising the mine until first gold from the large HL?

Where did I get the 3500tpd?

I listened to the interview masqood.

caveats too my ‘things are looking up’.

1) need the prospectus

2) gold production has never matched any forecast (I can not get my head around the really poor HL numbers in Q4; 6900t, 77% less than in Q3???

JC, yeah I fully expect the Q1 figures to be even worse than Q3 and Q4. Moving on.

So… funding was needed for the HUGE heap leach pad, which can now be started. My guess 2 months?? The small pads each took maybe 1 month so I’m probably being a bit optimistic.

Open pit mining is to increase from 500 tpd to 3500tpd.

Q3 HL - ore was 29929t (500tpd x 5 days x 12 weeks = 30,000t) so that stacks up. They did do 500tpd. Q4 was miles off it; 6900t (unexplained)

Q3 good from HL was maybe 29929t x 0.99g/t x 50% recovery / 31.3 = 476oz gold

So if the ore increases 7 fold (3500t / 500t), the gold may increase 7 fold, to 3333oz a quarter; 1100oz a month.

Validating this against the Sept presentation; plants 3&4 HL will produce 11928oz gold a year (1000oz a month).

Reverse the calc

11919oz x 31.1 / 0.5 = 742000 tonne ore a year

724,000 / 52 = 14267 tonnes a week

14267/5 days = 2853 tpd vs Robbie’s claimed 3500tpd.

Where does this leave me?

With the new HL (which first gold is maybe 3 months away!!) - with the new HL and the conventional CIL thingy they can surely do 1000 oz gold a month.

Surely, even if the 3500tpd is maybe a bit ‘ambitious’ - as robbie ALWAYS is.

So I think things are looking up, but the we won’t see this reported until the Q3 numbers are reported- in Q4.

(Assuming the huge HL pad is commissioned late mid to late Q2, so full production in Q3).

Using that $35mill debt figure (£28mill)

If I assume market values MEN at MCAP and the debt, then £12mill + £28mill = £40min.

(If there was no debt the SP would be higher and MCAP maybe nearer £40mill)

Meanwhile shares in ATOM are worth £10mill?

So £30mill is the ‘value’ of everything else and profit was greater than $19mill (£15mill). Indeed the profit this year could halve the debt…

So this year the cash generated is half what the business is valued at? Still seems cheap to me despite the debt.

I’m no accountant and probably an overly simplistic view. But clearly MEN can easily service the debt.

The only thing is the decrease in reserves, from 21 to 22, assuming the same decrease every year they have 3 years of reserves?… I did struggle to tally the bopd against the decrease in reverses (MMBoe).

Anyone know the chance of success of the drill in May?

Not including debt, the valuation is simply stupid

Appreciate the post grsshaw- any idea what total debt might be?

The MCAP just doesn’t make sense to me, should be a good bit higher.

No, neither am I - thanks anyway

So profits before tax nearly £16mill.

MCAP = £12mill

Any idea how much debt there is?

Legalwolf - re the February date for the prospectus. You are correct he did say that.

This may sound harsh, but I take timescales with a huge pinch of salt now. I don’t think any have that have been given have ever been met? Feel free the correct me (everyone).

JC- It was in January, there was an interview (Stockbox maybe) as the funding news from OCIM was announced this is when RM mentioned they had 3 lenders before Xmas and all 3 had been back in touch that morning, looking to find the mine expansion. RM then mentioned he’d look at buying shares but he’d have to check with the BOD if he could.

There was another interview that month when he mentioned the additional 3/4 lenders.

I agree, his comment about buying shares will have been low on his priorities, first and foremost was funding to keep the company going, which he secured, then (in no pericular order
-the governance review,
- getting the mine running again
- the prospectus

Drill results promised in January are also on the to do list and far behind the aforementioned priorities. So yeah, a comment about buying shares will have been at best at the back of his mind.

But as an investor, these things build confidence (share purchases) when things are looking not so good.

*2 months today since the finance news we got in January.

I hoped it would take 3 months for new funding (so 1 month to go), RM suggested it would be more like 6…