Member Info for ID78

Actually, that’s a thought; drilling will cost money so best guess debt will be in the 70s…

On that …. When are we expecting to hear results from the drilling?

Exploration was expected to re-start in Q1, ph4 & ph5.

So phases 1 to 3 presumably complete? I haven’t seen any RNS with drill results..

I imagine they are not in a massive hurry, that’s business going on quietly in the background whilst producing and selling huge amounts of gold.

PC fired up.

$1.33mill to $2.5mill profit next quarter dependant on variables (POG, average grade, AISC).

The average is $1.94mill (£1.57mill), same as I posted earlier Mickey so I’m not sure what important detail I missed earlier.

Pretty much the same numbers as on my phone and decent profit for the quarter.

They can mine the tonnage of ore, they have done it before.

High grade ore goes through CIL plant - can it process this volume of crushed ore? I don’t know. I’m unsure if the capacity is 250tpd or 500tpd.

The ops update from Q1 last year (no HL just CIL);

54000tons processed - this is more than 500tpd, so yeah they can probably do it through Plant 1 (CIL circuit).

Also in that Q1 update, from a grade of 1.75g/t the gold sales were 1226oz. So doubling the grade to 3.5g/t gives 2450oz gold for that quarter. Yesterdays RNS mentions grades 3.31 to 4.74g/t.

It all stacks up and if they can just do what they did in Q1 last year then they should make around $2mill profit next quarter, maybe more.

The following quarter (Q3) the massive HL comes into play - and the question there is can they feed that monster with the tonnage of ore needed??

Again, time will tell.

4 months to know if they hit the expected gold sales from this high grade area announced yesterday.

7 months to know if the massive HL works out (Q3 reported in Q4).

Hi CV7 - should the SP reflect that?

Id have thought

profit
free cash flow
potential future profit (amount of gold still to be sold)
debt

Come into the equation. Past CAPEX doesn’t help pay a dividend.

Flip side is that buying now after all that money has been spent and is now generating high profits each month, means that fund raises are a thing of the past. This is now a cash cow…

So debt end of last year was $81mill, down from $92mill the previous quarter.

So debt end of this quarter could be down to $70mill? If they mine the same ore then below $70mill with the higher POG?

Getting there but a few more quarters to go.

Flip side, SP you’d hope would increase by $11mill (£9mill) to reflect the debt running down.

Morning JC … I am still half asleep (still). But….

‘Up to 1000tpd’ - and I’m saying yeah, they did so that for a full quarter (Q3), so yeah ok. Fair enough.

‘In order to achieve our 1000oz production target’ - implies they achieved the 1000oz production target. And really, they didn’t achieve, not even when they mined the 1000tpd in Q3. They did hit 1000oz for 1 month, over a year ago.

That’s where I’m think come on Robbie, that’s maybe slightly pushing it.

Just read the RNS again.

In the past we used to process 1000tpd in order to achieve our production target of 1000oz a month.

Umm…. the 1000tpd - well they did 64000t one month so that kinda adds up assuming 5days, 13 weeks

The 1000oz a month. Pushing the PR a bit there Robbie.

One month, over a year ago, you once produced this amount. Since then - GCAT has produced nothing like 1000oz a month.

Ugh still half asleep but hopefully you get the just - hate posting on my phone.

Numbers stack up tho, $2mill profit ave, $1.4mill worst case.

Well… he is right about the track record.

But the ore mined last year averaged 46,000t a quarter. The max they mined was 64,000t in a quarter.

360 tons per day is less than these numbers - so they can mine enough ore..

Taking the lower numbers (3.31g/t), 0.75 recovery, 0.85 days, working 7 days a week and 13 weeks in a quarter ( and say $1850 POG)

Gold produced = 360x 3.31x7x13x0.85x0.75/31.1= 2222oz

Taking the 4.74g/t number; Gold produced = 3183g/t

So… I would say RM expecting 950g a month is on the optimistic side? The average of the numbers above is 2700g (900g a month)

Still, that’s not bad.

So worst case scenario: 2222oz and $1900 POG - assuming the AISC ($1250) doesn’t reduce (it should!) ….

Then they make 2222x$650 = $1.44mill profit in the next quarter

Assuming better numbers (3183oz, $2000 POG, $1200 AISC)

Then they make 3183 x $800 = $2.5mill profit next quarter

So the average is say. $2mill

The tpd they have done before. But, again the gold from the tpd didn’t add up in the Q3, Q4 numbers didn’t add up (was lower than it should have been - MUCH lower).

So wait and see, if the numbers come short all confidence will be lost that they can run a gold mine, never mind the expanded gold 2000oz a month mine.

If they do it, it restores some confidence…. Wait and see

I was thinking that myself driving to work, that on-site lab has suddenly become a great investment.

The sceptic in me thinks he got lucky hitting some good grades rather than keeping an ace up his sleeve!

I did say in January they need to concentrate on mining the richer, higher grade areas given the immediate concern was generating enough money to pay the bills.

Make enough money to be self sufficient and not rely on CLNs, whilst working on the funding.

The grade coming through CIL was very disappointing for Q3 and Q4. But the grade didn’t explain the low gold numbers, they really did not add up at all.

Anyway, this is good news. Now it all depends on whether the team actually deliver on these numbers. Again, the numbers reported before Xmas just did not add up.

Let’s hope that in 4 months there is a Q2 update with near 1000oz a month reported. Q3 (provided they can min enough ore to feed the massive HL) - Q3 numbers will hopefully take care of themselves.

GLA

Well…. Unlocking the value has been the issue ‘till now and some investors may wait to see if the gold produced matches the RNS.

(Again, they’ve just never produced the gold they said they would - so some investors may wait to see if they really can do it. This remains the BIG question)

But yes, those providing funding WILL love this news.

Or those maybe thinking of doing a JV …. : )

Fantatsic news.

And by the end of that quarter that massive HL may be commissioned…. So even if the grade drops the 1000oz a month can (probably continue).

Back to basics. Mine gold, sell gold. At last.

User2007 - just yes, a cracking opportunity here… BUT

First gold from proof of concept (at best) is in December

Then - funding (next year)

Then investment in the line to production (next year or the year after?)

So… a fantastic opportunity but why would the SP drastically change now?

I have to admit Suggins, BMV are on my watch list, the experience of the management team is compelling.

However first gold from the proof of concept (hopefully) in December, then finance, then however long to get the mine up and running …. So maybe end of 2024 they should start production?

To me a JV is not the best finance option; something similar to OCIM is.

However, with that in mind, this ‘second best’ finance option is quite palatable, I think. And, like dragons den, they can maybe bring something to the table to help/advise going forward. They know how to produce a lot of gold…

And it’s TRX… my phone seems to prefer TXT and TXR for some reason!!

Exploring this a bit further….

I think everyone here would be happy with 20% dilution to raise the $10mill needed for the mine expansion. Clearly at this SP that can’t happen.

So a joint venture, 80/20 split …. exploring that a bit further

Assuming $1750 POG, AISC $1250 (figures are probably redundant now with inflation and POG increase) - but assuming $500 profit per oz.

GCAT get $400, TXR $100

I’m 24,000oz a year that’s $9.6mill profit a year GCAT and $2.4mill a year to TXR.

I forget how much gold there is, but assuming they finally prove 1mill oz (I think RM expects 1.5mill +)

Then that’s $100mill profit TXR, $400mill to GCAT over the life of the mine.

$10mill investment gets TXR $100mill return ….

Shareholders don’t see any dilution…

Seems a good way forward?

Thanks JC and SW.

Like I say I think the large HL pad changes everything here.

Part of me remains a bit sceptical. Without HL (Feb 22 maybe) they nearly did 1000oz in a month. Without HL.

So… why did that never happen again? Is it because it was high grade ore which is mined under the mountains in narrow veins? They just got a lucky or good run at one of the veins or was there a stockpile of high grade ore waiting to be processed from other months??

What I’m saying - the high grade stuff I think without the real mine expansion - is difficult to mine in meaningful quantities.

The low grade stuff (I think) is closer to the surface. And as you see they can dig that up quickly and easily and get it off to the crusher then the HL - i(assuming they need to crush the ore first!

My point, the HL numbers are (probably) more achievable. And 1000oz a month from HL would turn the economics of the mine on its head and the MCAP becomes stupid. Furthermore it underpins any investment case.

Truly, I feel this changes everything but remain cautious as, again, they just never produced the gold they said they would ….

As I say much more bullish than a month ago - or even 2 weeks ago

Thanks Hamm, I just bought a few.

Wish I’d bought at 2p (which is where you kept saying it was going fall back to)

@ Thorngoson - thanks for the response.

@Bprophet - yeah I’ve come to keeping an open mind to the contrarian view or more negative view is not a bad thing. You are made more aware of the risks. Are you invested?

I think I can see Hamm’s opinion, I’d maybe even say he or she is very bullish…