Member Info for ID78

Good to hear from you Aprogerson.

Going concern - completely agree. The high grade ore has given breathing space to get the prospectus out and get funding sorted.

I see that….

‘Fitch cuts the U.S. credit rating, from the top AAA to AA+ Fitch cut the federal government's top rating, citing rising deficits and a steady deterioration in governance over the last two decades. The action drew a sharp rebuke from the Biden administration’

Could boost the POG..

Did they not drill to find the extent of the high grade ore, that’s why 3 months became 13?

Not to say there isn’t another sweet spot elsewhere, but for this section I think they have delineated the high grade ore and I don’t see it growing.

It will be good to see Aprogersons take on gold sales. I’m sure he (or she) will post a detailed breakdown of the production figures.

I thought they needed funding to get to 2000oz a month? Maybe I’ve lost track of the story here.

Compared to MCAP - the profit is decent but this high grade zone is to last more 3 quarters - this production can’t be banked on going forward.

So.. they made something like $1.17mill profit, £0.92mill.

So by then of mining the good stuff, £3.6mill profit for 12 months of high grade ore vs the current MCAP is decent but I think more was anticipated - or I at least by me. If the hadn’t missed 2 weeks maybe that number would be £1.1mill.

Clearly the mine expansion is vital in 9 months…. at least the days of the CLN’s are hopefully behind them.

For me it’s another one of those RNS’s where the production doesn’t match expectations, however it is a good shift to profitability for the next 3 quarters and that is a big big difference

Less than 550oz a month gold sold.

I was expecting significantly better gold sales, closer to 1000oz.

Thanks hound dog, much appreciated

Hi lucky - the $122mill net debt was in the 25th July Q2 update.

The $15mill - BB2 corrected me - that was in the Q1 update and I should not have included that. I’m sure it’s now baked into the Q2 net debt $122mill.

Hi Tornadotony - thanks for that.

As I said on the HUM board Im kicking the tyres of a few gold companies at the moment so thank you for taking the time to post it’s much appreciated.

Yep, true bonker99 - which is why I’m kicking the tyres of a few gold producers …

That would be huge selling Dugbe, I was looking at which is the most undervalued - assuming the sale doesn’t happen so worst case. £50miles would be huge.

Billyboy - appreciated thank you, you have a better hold on the finances than I do. I do think there is more pain to come in Q3, however after that…..

Off topic, BB - the name, is it a nod to your football team? If so, good choice ;)

* food for thought

Ok - so IF in 2 years SHG begin work to increase production then they may have pocketed something like $180mill in profit between then and now. Which they will need to use some of as CAPEX for mine expansion… how much I don’t know.

HUM in 2 years…. Debt now is $122mill and they intend to draw down another $15mill so $137mill.

My calcs (200,000 oz, $1950 POG and $1234 AISC) - profit is $215mill. So in a year debt could be repaid. In 2 years HUM could have more than $215mill in cash with no CAPEX needed to get to 200,000oz - as they will be there already.

SHG MCAP is $107mill.

HUM MCAP is $72mill.

So thinking like that in 2 years HUM is ahead of the curve vs SHG with a MCAP 2/3 that of SHG…

As lucky says - investor sentiment is everything logic doesn’t always work!

Anyway good for thought.

Thanks Equinamity- ultimately IF you believe in both, and both are undervalued the answer is to hold shares in both.

It’s that simple (from a simple person!)

Hi, thought I’d take the SHG chat off the HUM page as I’m sure it will irritate someone.

Are you on here?

So… WK will take 2 years + capex (any idea how much capex) - though by my basic calcs SHG is making $96mill a year profit.

So they can surely self finance (if a couple of years away?)

This is the curious anomaly with SHG - debt will be repaid about now, and the market says ‘meh’… SP really isn’t responding.

In terms of news on SHG - brought a second mine into production in March to add 40% to gold production. SP is the same as in Jan. Go figure. As for news going forward - not sure.

SHG appeals, so does HUM. I don’t think fair value is currently reflected for either.

Then there is the POG.. and where that may be going. I try and follow northstarbadcharts on Twitter. Time will tell if they are accurate or not.

To be clearer I’m saying the MCAP (of no debt) would increase to the value of current MCAP + current debt levels.

This is the valuation of HUM (a basic valuation). But the markets must be pricing the debt into the current SP

Thanks bonker99, I’ve seen your name over the years. I know you’ve been in the markets a long time - which is a good thing.

Equanimity - once at full production- I’d argue HUM is slightly more undervalued than SHG based on current valuation vs profit.

I have SHG MCAP (or valuation) is about 1.5 x the annual profit from gold sales.

Hum (once at 220,000 oz) …. Well you if we add the debt to the MCAP and say this is what the market values HUM at (ie MCAP currently reflects the debt level). Then HUM valuation is 1.37 x annual profit

So HUM is a bit better.

This totally ignores resources in ground and life of mine- which I need to look into.

Well yes - obviously!

I went back through some gold shares yesterday, comparing them and HUM went from the most undervalued to ‘forget about it’. .. this changes things everything back.

The question is when will the SP react - before or after full production is reached. Certainly buying and waiting HUM you will do well at some point.

- and you too bushy, appreciate the responses

Ahh ok, thanks lucky

GLA