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Technical analysis ‘now they are stuffed’

😂😂😂

Obviously expansion of the Cascadura field will take time, and depends (in part) on how cas c2 goes (again drilling of cas c2 to start this month I believe).

This is my take as a relative newby - there will be people on here with a better handle in things than me.

Q1 production : 2139 boepd

Cas A : 9200 boepd (any time now)

So soon to produce 11,300 boepd

In addition Cas C-2 to be drilled soon. There is the potential of 4 wells at Cas-C and Cas-B with each anticipated to add around 3000 boepd (so potentially another 24,000 boepd if it all of Cascadura comes good)

In addition Royston is being flow tested…. And has been since early March..

Uggghh WOS you are one of the reasons I don’t bother with the MATD BB anymore.

I did say expansion of production from the Heron field. Expansion does not mean just one well and stopping. But in months it will be too cold to drill so it is becoming likely that the best you will see, wise owl, is a nodding donkey and one well (this year).

Please not the word ‘likely’. Before thinking of responding.

Maybe they will pull a rabbit out the hat and drill more wells this year but the clock is ticking - Heron 1 workover has not been announced nevermind any other wells which will take time to drill, they are not 2 week workovers. So it is becoming more and more unlikely.

Now. TXP - is it this week that or next week for that waterfall of cash to start flowing? It is likely to be this week I think, but if it’s next week then so be it.

Hi corpse, I’m not so sure of the time frames. I was invested there (MATD) for the market response to the licence. I made some money, but could have made more if I’d sold earlier.

No doubt there is profit to be made there again but they are far behind TXP wrt selling their product. From here on in (I expect) TXP becomes a cash cow whereas MATD will need funds if there is no oil this year - or even if there is oil from only 1 well. That’s not even looking comparing the NAV of the oil / gas finds.

Completely relaxed with my TXP holdings :-D

MATD - pure exploration. Until now(ish) - workover of heron 1 will take 2 weeks, whenever they can get a team to do it, then MATD will be a producer from 1 well with a nodding donkey, filling a tank, emptied by tanker. Expansion of production from the Heron field will happen, but it is probably more likely to be next year.

In contrast TXP has spent how long building the cascadura facility?? This facility is a bit more than a nodding donkey and - tank and is is to handle significant quantities of gas that is piped direct to market. The gas may flow this week - or next but it is days away.

Again there is to be expansion of the cascadura field but the scale between MATD and TXP is quite different. TXP has (literally) been building towards this moment for some time and invested significant money and man hours. Heron 1 is a nodding donkey and a tank.

Hi Apro - in the Q3 / Q4 update the gold production vs gold sales did not make sense. I can’t remember the detail tbh but I posted at the time.

Now, again, gold sales do not match gold production and - maybe there is a reason for it - but no explanation is given.

Point is gold sales not matching gold production and being underwhelming is a recurring theme here. I really expected better from the high grade ore. Maybe that was just me, Robbie does say the target is 600oz a month, so predictions do seem to have been optimistic.

All the same gold sales vs production not matching is becoming something that needs answered imo.

I think the guidance is $14mill free cash flow per quarter once the 9200 from Cas-A is online. That is $56mill a year. Nevermind Cas B or C.

So £23mill debt is… well saying it is irrelevant is maybe flippant, debt is never irrelevant but … manageable, serviceable, nothing worth worrying about. It’s just not a big deal for this little company :-)

Fantastic, Trek and you’ve waited a while for this so good for you.

I certainly intend to, just wish I’d bought at 50p when you were suggesting I (and others should). Nevermind, I’m onboard now :)

Johnoxxx - I think corpse does, but haven’t seen any posts today from corpse

@gavster - fair comment on the annualised profit, the high grade body will, in a year produce £3.6mill profit vs £6mill MCAP before it is spent. By then we expect / hope to have funding and a plan to increase production …

SW - off topic - I totally agree on hydrogen vs electric…

LW - pretty decent summary of the state of play here I reckon. Thanks, as you say this could easily all come good, but we are currently in the dark to some extent.SP is in limbo until things are clearer I suspect.

@John - either there will be a slow steady build in SP or a spike, pullback and then go again perhaps more steadily - once Cascadura is online - not sure which but either way it’s a win.

@climbwooster - that MATD BB, it’s nuts (or was I’ve not been on in a while)

Thanks for responding Trek, always appreciate it. Hope you & Mrs Trek are well. ‘Silly amount’ - I remember this was your YOLO share and piled in, and it looks like you won’t be disappointed!

Dayton, yep I have a similar plan with some gains, TXP is just getting started but there will be a pullback at some point...

FAO Trek (slightly off topic)

I also bought more this morning…quick question… so you preferred TXP to PHNX? Why was that? Only asking as I was thinking of buying PHNX but chose more TXP instead.

@photographer - 😂😂 wish I’d made that mistake

Yes, sorry - pressure testing started 28th July. So they complete next week or the week after….

Well if not this Friday… 90p next Friday has to have a high probability!

Down hole plugs removed 8th and 9th July, with pressure testing of the plant 70% complete on the 31st (23days later).

I’m really looking forward to next week :)

… 1/2 the MCAP as profit

I make the profit on production £900,000ish for the quarter and the MCAP £6mill ish.

So profit a little less than 1/6th the MCAP? … it’s good but it is only to last 3 more quarters.

It’s solid, and being profitable changes the story for the next 3 quarters. Still need that prospectus and funding to land.

@aprogerson - thanks for that, appreciated. $1 trillion to service the interest - eye watering.

I’ve only just started keeping an eye on northstarbadcharts as an indicator for POG … and I think they suggested end of month for a signal for a strong gold bull run.

Or perhaps they just know all about the BRICS 22nd August conference!!

Anyway all eyes on that conference then… thanks for sharing.

Sw1000 - at this point there is no financing.

At this point GCAT is a going concern because of the high grade ore. It will last 9 more months.

After that , if the prospectus and finance are not sorted (and the prospectus has taken an inordinate amount of time till now) then GCAT continuing as a going concern becomes a question again.

So that is why I concentrate on the ‘going concern’ comment.