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Yeah it is SHG, HUM are also interesting tho with a lot of debt. SHG have next to none.

IQAI - listened to a podcast about gold and silver yesterday and one guy kept banging on about how AI is what’s hot just now…

And that is maybe TXP’s issue. Bear market and AI is the hot sector?

Is the news baked into the SP?

Well…. I don’t think so. I’d argue that in a bull market we’d see a very different response… But even if I am wrong do we think that after 3 or 6 months production at these levels the SP will be the same? I’d expect not. But in this market who knows!

There is a gold producer making 1/2 its MCAP in EBITDA that is also unloved and unresponsive to its fantastic production position and profit. Trek knows the one. It just should not be at the price it is at either.

It is the market. It is a bear market right now and investors are wary. Conversely this means there are quite a few interesting buys out there!

Back to TXP and whilst it’s frustrating not to see the SP respond to fantastic news I guess we just need to recognise the state of the market and (for me) settle myself with the fact it is a safe investment that will - one day - respond more positively than now. If the SP pulls back - and you have money - buy more. It’s as much of a sure bet as you will find! Just have patience.

Volume has been low compared to last week, crusty….. so maybe you are right there

Buys £270k vs £193k sells… if they are to be believed.

Looks like 20 day SMA is the resistance level. What is it they say? The more attempts to break a resistance the stronger the final move?

I’m sure we will break through this week. GLA

Part of me isn’t surprised at the SP reaction. I’m half expecting a positive response and rerate a few weeks down the road. Sometimes these things are just a slow burner. Fact is this massively derisked now and a safe place to be invested.

The share price will respond - eventually.

Candid - thanks for getting back to me, much appreciated.

Uranium certainly on the move, and hopefully has some legs to go so it’s between KAP and yellowcake for me to get some exposure.

Thanks again and all the best

An *account* with H&L … flippin phone

Candid, how do you buy this? I have an accountant with Hargreaves Lansdown- I can’t see this as an option with them.

Thanks in advance

Not read the full board today.

Anyone seen power metals RNS? They are detecting Helium…. Pump and dump rampers on there today but maybe worth keep an eye on.

I would add - to me on the chart we have seen a breakout of the downtrend and a backtest of what was resistance.

The resistance is now support. The chart does look like we are at that breakout and the start of a new trading range backed by production from Cascadura. This is (about) the bottom of you are happy to hold and wait.

JAdams5000

Well… yes.

Anyone familiar here to the chart showing the share price and cycle of mining stocks?

SP starts low, explodes on a substantial find, drops back as funding is needed to get to production then takes off again as production starts - and ramps up.

TXP is starting production and will ramp up from the existing wells and adding more wells. It is not overnight but production, cash flow will change the SP but it takes time to ramp up and generate more and more cash day after day, and exponentially as more wells are added.

But this is derisked - they should be able to fund production expansion from the wells they have.

Patience is needed.

Maybe the SP will respond to the next bit of news, maybe not. But the SP can not ignore forever the increased cash flow from Cascadura.

I’m going to bite, scoredagainsteps.

I’m in TXP. What’s the story here?

TXP we are talking about 10,000 boepd - how much are JSE looking at producing?

Geldautomat - exactly.

There are a few shares at or below historic lows which gives me the dilemma … this could re-rate … or in this market this could just keep putting in new lows. Then what if they need to raise money? Or what if the miss deadlines or have poor results?

TXP is at a point of inflection, it is a safe place to park your money at the moment. Flip side is we aren’t seeing the immediate big re-rate. So what, money is safe, it will re-rate and this is about as good as it gets in these markets.

LV1991, being late doesn’t change the fact there is now gas and condensate which will generate sales. Flow rates will ramp up gradually. Sales will ramp up gradually.

Being later than your expectations, no offence, doesn’t matter a bit. They are irrelevant. Making money, oil and gas sales, they are all that matter. Cascadura has started to generate cash and it will ramp up.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey.

As for the market, I’m seeing many stocks on my watchlist at or below historic lows. It’s a bear market just now. A bull market and we’d see a more positive response.

It doesn’t change the fact TXP is getting there and the outlook is improving day by day with no threat of dilution or fund raises. If the biggest problem is that TXP moves a bit slow for your liking - I can live with it - if we get hit by a fund raise at 50p. I’d be annoyed, but that will not happen. This is the floor and the SP will only climb from here, albeit with the odd wobble (profit taking).

Chill out, relax and wait for the return on your investment if you have one.

Zan_TM - couldn’t agree more. A great post.

I can’t remember who it was but back in December someone on here kept asking ‘why has the money not been drawn down’ and suggesting it wasn’t looking good. 2 weeks later the finance deal fell apart.

I gave little to no thought or time to these posts and labelled the person a deramper. My BIG mistake. If I had listened and perhaps sold some of my position I’d have done better.

Ultimately you don’t know anyone on these boards but there are a few people I think are worth listening to, no matter how much you don’t want to hear their contrarian view.

LW - I have a lot of time for. His/her posts may not be what you want to hear but they do show the potential pitfalls and any investment choice is a better choice when fully aware of the (potential) upside - and the (potential) downside.

Good post Zan-TM.

As an aside, as a risky punt this is a good price .:.

Ugggh should read ‘I’m sure there’s better at charting’

Hi Trek. One things I see on (almost every board) is investors getting excited about news, then being disgruntled about timeframes. We all want results now but these things take time. I do however understand TXP are slower than most, but they do seem to get there in the end!

Ultimately with TXP, news really is imminent (next week). As you say, Trek, the big question now is what are the flow rates now and how long to full capacity?

I’m better at charting than me out there, but last week last month it looked like we broke out above a resistance line, then back tested it. A strong bounce today and next week and hopefully that confirms the end of the old trading range… strange that since news is due :)

From what I can tell, from what’s posted here. First commercial gas has been this week, RNS will however be next week?

@glenfidrich - have you seen any of the analysis from northstarbadcharts? They seem to produce good analysis but also brought my attention to how (in the past) when gold has gone on a bull run, silver lags but then eclipses the gold bull run.

Quite interesting, and given everything is pointing to gold just about starting it’s big move… then if it happens silver will subsequently move (later and more powerfully). Which could be useful to anticipate.

All the best

Put another way, smasher

- if it were a duster, you wouldn’t keep testing it, would you.

There’s oil in that hole but how much, or rather - at what rate it flows, is the question we wait to be answered.

It may be frustrating waiting but to me I find the deliberate and patient approach taken by TXP reassuring. Of the testing is this thorough then come production there will be no nasty surprises.