Member Info for ID78

Anyone good with charts? … I think I’m seeing divergence with the RSI….

Thanks 1plus, appreciate the response. Fortunately we only have a couple of weeks and we will know better the cash position :)

And yeah, I agree with you on the AISC for HUM and underground mining… Ultimately we do know the AISC for Shanta and we can hang out hats on it. But what if they get the 2nd ball mill? Isn’t it the case you produce more gold the AISC could come down?… So there’s more food for thought.

Bushy - I gave the enterprise value of both shares in my post and SHG is 1/3 that of HUM. It’s a more comprehensive way of valuing the company than looking at just the MCAP. For example, if we assume the market penalises a company by having a high debt then the valuation of the company is the MCAP + the debt.

Put another way.. if HUM paid of £100mill debt you’d hope to see the MCAP (and SP) increase considerably…

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp

So the enterprise value is a more robust way to compare the value of similar companies, IMO

I did a bit of a comparison SHG, MTL, HUM, SRB. SHG comes out tops but concentrating on the HUM comparison..

Looking at the Q2 numbers didn’t SHG do something like 10,000oz singida and 19000 nglm…. 29000oz total? That’s 116,000oz per annum and if you add the more capacity (ball mill) and get to 150,000 oz then that is 3/4 of what HUM hope to get to. … so SHG should be worth 3/4 of HUM?

HUM enterprise value = 150mill (MCAP + debt - cash)

-MCAP = 50mill

- Debt = 100mill (I think - may be 125)

- Cash = 0?

SHG enterprise value = 55 mill

- MCAP = 72mill

- Debt = 8 mill

- Cash = 25mill

So SHG are valued at 1/3 of HUM. Have no debt (now, I e expect) and could easily produce 3/4 of what HUM hope to produce.

This comparison is half assed because it only considers gold production and not profit.

SHG …. AISC = 736$/oz singida and 1181 $/oz NLGM

HUM…. AISC = 1500/oz karoussa and 1500$/oz yanfolila

So whilst SHG produce less gold (if HUM hits 200,000oz). … who thews off more free cash? Well SHG cos HUM have to pay down debt.

Once debt is repaid? HUM generate 10% more FCF based on 200,000oz vs SHG 116,000oz. But if SHG introduce that 2nd ball mill… sell more gold…. Well it’s SHG.

One final thing, which should be obvious but in the case POG stutters… SHG is the safer play with those low AISC.

So… that’s why I bought SHG :)

Praie - well … yes, the RNS did say in the region of 2 weeks; letting us know that it could be more, it could be less.

Just need to wait and see.

A very good post there, wyndrum.

Fair comment JC, and money has been spent on plant (I remember a digger and conveyor belt). It’s difficult to get a clear picture - as you say we can all make up scenarios to suit our point of view but they have to be just about break even, or better.

I don’t see a big raise happening unless they run out of high grade ore before financing comes (if it comes) but the stopclock has something like maybe 5/6 months left of the good high grade ore. A large raise before Xmas; I just don’t see it

Need for a *significant* cash raise I should say - there’s clearly a need each month for a teeny tiny one…

I don’t think there’s a rat with the high grade zone, the only issue is the gold being produced is less than 700oz and it looks like they need a bit more to be profitable. Remember AISC is higher the less they produce.

Are the massive HL pads commissioned yet? I remember talk of starting work on them back at the end of winter / start of spring. These should make the difference.

Meanwhile I think the high grade ore is to last 13months? So the needs for a cash raise IF the funding doesn’t come through would be end of Q1 next year perhaps??

And expecting … no debt and £30-£35mill cash position.

MCAP £102mill?…

Fair enough. Thanks everyone

(Or can they not clear the hole?)

I know they haven’t reached target dept, but would there be value to running wireline for the depths drilled so far whilst waiting on the part they need?

Charts - I use marketscreener.

Only get a handful of free charts a day, but I quite like it….

Seeing all these posts about LW…. I’ve actually stalked legalwolf on LSE a bit. Sounds creepy I know, but good posters I do read from time to time.

We were both invested in GCAT - legals negative posts werent welcome there but what has happened over their legal was warning about, and what is potentially yet to come, also being warned about. Safe to say the negative views still aren’t welcome no matter how valid they are.

I followed legal onto the ORCP board (read but never contributed) where legal was highly unpopular pointing out the ‘negatives’ …. SP today has tanked today and it isn’t all legals fault lol. Instead, it could have been predicted if people had been more open to a different opinion.

Point is the unwelcome contrary view isn’t always driven by agenda. Sometimes it can be altruistic.

This is a punt, they will or will not find Helium. It is not nailed on and legal is right the safe way to play it is buy the result. I bought before spud thinking (like everyone) it will rise, and it is lower. I sold out for a small loss as I’m not happy with the risk.

Anyway, point is, legal may seem to be a deramper and doom merchant but ignoring the comments as they don’t agree with you is perhaps shortsighted. It is useful to pay attention to the contrary view sometimes.

I wish everyone here the best on this. It’s a tough market just now!! If I had done better with other investments I’d have stayed invested and gambled on the drill result. Only invest what you can afford to lose I guess is my comment.

GLA

Yeah, reading the comments here suggested that might be a problem!…

Sorely tempted to average down here.

Hi legal, I can’t see Noble delaying spud till this drill is complete. Regardless of the outcome for HE1 they will spud once ready.

I see, thanks dai- appreciated.

My experience is limited, outwith HE1 there was ADV and MATD - 2 drills (dusters) with nothing announced to TD.

@legalwolf

Part of me thinks that they want to avoid the sort of situation as last time, where has shows led to nothing and that they won’t report gas shows.

Meantime in other (oil and gas) exploration I think I’ve read about oil shows in the mud during drilling.

Anyone got more experience following oil and gas exploration? Do companies normally report positive shows during by drilling or wait to the end? (mainly aiming at dia2belts here but open question to everyone)

Ps I do know it’s a helium drill :)

Earl of aim is the biggest ramper in these boards. I hate it when he turns up.

That aside; dia2belts, is the SP not following what happened last time. You had a nice chart showing the SP fell after spud, and rose when DM got all excited about some helium shows.

SP is following the same course.