Part 429 Feb 2016 12:48
The ag-chem market has seen a reasonable level of merger and acquisition activity in recent years, Shore says. Over the next decade, the use of biological solutions is set to record double-digit growth, and by 2030 could represent up to 10% of the global crop protection market. This is positive for Eden's prospects. Listing several deals, Shore points to Bayer's acquisition of Agraquest for Euros 340m (£230m) plus milestone payments in August 2012. Shore thinks Agraquest had revenue of $7m in 2012, so it is probably the most comparable company in the chosen deals to Eden. At 16.25p, Eden is capitalised at £26m. Shore says it could be a potential target in sector consolidation.
That is a summary of the broker comments, and they point up the attractions of Eden to investors who may have been hanging on, grimly believing, while a tight financial position has brought risks galore to an otherwise enormously attractive proposition. Few shareholders would want to see Eden taken out by an early bid, given the modest share price in recent years. Medium to longer term, however, that is a clear prospect.
The potential applications of terpenes, coupled with the encapsulation process, appear massively wide-ranging. The Shore note fills in some of the gaps, but must remain vague on just what might accrue from which deal. So far, the numbers have been small. But the markets Eden's products could be addressing are massive, and a big money partner could help move things fast.
There is little mention in the report of opportunities in America, where the market must be vast. There appears to be general confidence that Eastman will go ahead and exercise the option next spring, pulling in a decent milestone payment, and covering some of the American opportunities. But the lack of comment about America, north and south, is surprising. Could there be big new opportunities there, and in the Far East, where Sumitomo is an obvious player. If anything, the Shore sweep of potential developments looks on the conservative side, which is where it should be.
Eden itself remains constrained by a shortage of cash. It is debt free and ought to have cash in the bank after the recent TerpeneTech deal, while Lachlan will bring what will presumably be a modest milestone payment. No-one would, however, welcome a dilutive fund-raising at close to current prices.
Hopefully the Shore note and marketing presence will help bring more institutional investors into Eden, perhaps reducing the volatility of the shares. The problem remains the glacial pace of regulatory approvals, despite the obvious environmental benefits of Eden's products. Even now, we are not completely clear of all of the red tape holding 3AEY back in Europe. Though the process ought to be somewhat faster for subsequent products, no-one can be sure of smooth and timely progress.
As it has for so long, Eden still looks an excellent growth opportunity. No guarantees, but much of the risk has go
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