Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

Labongus, Fair point, I only do it because I'm intrigued. I see this share as a % chance of sanction multiplied by PoO multiplied by assumed reservoir size. I did however see % chance of sanction is influenced by PoO, with a step change at around $70.

brent $60.87 it's rising. Just supplying some balance to DBNO

I looked at the relationship between RKH sp and PoO converted to GBP, and there's a reasonable correlation... I haven't checked if that is better than a straight RKH sp vs PoO in USD correlation, I guess because I see no reason why the correlation without the USD conversion to GBP would be better.

Still, that'll keep us busy while the debt comes down :)

I had something similar too Andy. The start of the simulation programme is imminent. If anyone knows about the time to results please share! Also the Tapi Aike seismic is due to start soon, but will take c.5 months, does anyone know if there'll be any interim updates on progress? If no, does that mean we just have to wait until mid-2019 for any feedback once the results have been analysed?

Fgawdsake, I suppose the difference with this Christmas period is that it sits within the 3-6 month FID timeline, so it's a different kind of risk to be out this year.

Nobody knows if it'll be higher or lower over the next few years...which is what's important when thinking about RKH sanction. To my mind the main reasons to think the price will increase are: OPEC would want prices higher Speculation that KSA can't sustian high production rates, and may have peaked...or at least peaked in their lower cost oil areas (hence no SA floating on the market) Fraking may be incredibly short term (c.1-2 years) or at least require significant ongoing investment to keep producing significant amounts Population growth and increasing oil use (the pop is 7.7b now, geez) And finally...don't forget, lower sun activity may lead to colder winters (I can't remember if that's northern hemisphere or for the whole world)

The same Qatar that produces approximately 1.5% of world oil outputt that's like saying Hungary will bring down the EU.

What RNS? I dont see any.

I'm sceptical about TA anyway, but surely considering all the external factors at the moment they would blow out of the water anything the historic analysis and patterns would tell you.

It looks like they use a language toolkit for the RNSs to judge them on sentiment and subjectivity. I'd imagine it's using the same kind of thing to parse your messages to judge if you're more positive than the average poster. Congrats on the positioning all, I guess I'll have to post more often and use more positive words :)

Can I have 1,100 please? No real logic behind that though :)

I think Eric is saying 1 metric says the share is overbought and another is say it is neither overbought nor oversold. Make of that what you will!

Yes as PMO so has a strong correlation with the PoO. It's not PMO = x * PoO, but it's not that far away.

I understood that the fall in the share price was linked to the writing off of the Fortuna license. I read that it expires at the end of the year. Exactly what the outcomes are I'm not sure: 1) it expires, so the SP drop is appropriate as time ticks away 2) someone takes over OPHR and funds it quickly...time is slipping away for this one 3) it gets funded for development internally...maybe they're desperately trying this one 4) the license is extended...only likely if 2 or 3 is a believable near future scenario Am I near the mark at all on this?

Are we expecting to see an RNS on the Zama appraisal well being spudded? I believe this was due for the end of the month. Is there a possibility of good news, or is it just 'functional' and ticking a box?

I thought we measure in Brent around here! And doesn't the market open at 7.30am?

Who are the 3 largest UK 'international' oil companies, or at least who owns the 3 largest UK portfolios? It seems strange they aren't mentioned in the article.

DRS1 - Wow 1987! For my sins I have shares in RKH, PMO, HUR, OPHR and ECHO... I'm just trying to learn more about this oil world, as it's fascinating to me. At the moment though it feels like it doesn't matter which company you picked POO has been the bandit robbing us all. I guess that's par for the course though, how long has oil ever stayed stable for?

Haha, how much do you think they spent on it?!