Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

*agree with Sorry - sausage fingers

I was meaning a bit more generally with my timeline... SIPP would you agree with those milestones, and would you are glwith the dates +/- 1 week and the months +/- 1 month?

Good post Glamrocklover.

So is the timeline something like this: 16th Dec - depart 20th Dec - arrive + hookup Feb - all commissioning and setup completed May - ramp up of production finished and RNS about pressures and info about reservoir knowedge etc

I had 6 days travel in my notes...I really sure reference where these numbers/dates etc came from!

Good post Ovets

It won't move 10-20% unless PoO moves something similar...everything has been sideways the last month almost

Yep sorry I repeated the 19th as a date someone mentioned but it wasn't sourced from anywhere. I can't remember where the 16th came from (arrival +2 weeks or something?) but that document about hazards for fishermen I think mentioned after the 15th for departure.

Nigoil, I suppose it's possible a deal has been made in advance to sell Zama to a 3rd party. Either way it's worthless until Zama is appraised which will take time...IIRC the earliest that can be is Feb, which is after the FID timeline end. Also OM arbitration for RKH could be positive and supply some cash - not sure how that'd work though as RKH aren't the ones needing funding to kick off SL, I'm not sure exactly how that'd help but logically it should help somehow! Here's to hoping!

Nigoil, My thoughts are that selling Zama to fund SL is an excellent idea, and I would support it - for what it's worth. I think the timelines don't quite work out though...if we waited to get max value for Zama then we'd be late for FID for SL...so that'd be a tricky road to negotiate while keeping everyone happy

Correction, +11% positive

I know the RNS was positive but surely it wasn't +8% positive. Here are my two theories: 1. Some kind of takeover precursor...or at least makes us more attractive 2. Moving pieces to allow some big fortuna announcement to be made 3. We are being pumped, ready to be dumped Any thoughts on which is happening? I'm hoping for 1, scared it's 3 and think 2 is highly unlikely

You're talking complete nonsense carrot. I'm not that much interested in Nigoil's extremely optimistic view either, that said. However: Dec 2018 being a trailer for 2020 - nonsense Perhaps FIG could ... in 2020 - nonsense We've got forecast timelines for things to happen way before that license even needs to be discussed....many many things could happened between now and 2020 making any of your prognostications absolutely moot.

If it is a draw of 4m I'd expect PoO to increase ~3%

The market ain't right when there's a cartel involved!

If we're leaving Rotterdam on the 19th that puts arrival on the 25th!

I thought the biggest worry about the whole thing would be if the wells didn't get depleted too quickly, meaning the fractured basement concept, which has been successful elsewhere, was pushed too far in this instance. I wouldn't be here if I didn't think there was a significant possibility of the probabilities being on our side. But I accept there is a possibility of the modelling/data interpretation being wrong as this is a largely unproven theory/model. What I can't figure out is when this will be known one way or another. Maybe someone more informed can explain a little from experience. I guess it'll be shades of grey over a period of time, but indications would be good. I guess blocked pumps would cause a delay to when we will know, and cause an annoyance and increase cost if it was an ongoing issue. It's more +/- 10% of the share price as opposed to multiples of the current price; this being dependent on whether the Doctor just 'gets' fractured basements and will add his name to the history of oil.

WT I don't think it's childish to hold people to their word. The truth is when announcing what you're going to do as a company and when these are significant things that investors then expect to happen. If they don't happen then it brings in to question their credibility and all the other things they have said when you have taken on trust, such as the potential profit of the assets. It's massively important to follow through on what you say about the relatively few things which do have a published timeline. Still a hold from me for now.

Somm - I agree the develop non-exec portfolio is basically a non-reason, I guess we'll never know. That said I'd be quite happy to develop my own non-exec portfolio, it seems like a sweet deal. The bigger worry is the sacrifice of options. Surely if it was voluntary then she didn't believe in the future value of the company. How about if it was involuntary, wouldn't she be allowed to keep the options if she was 'let go' as opposed to sacked for anything misconducty? I suppose if the cash in hand offer was better then maybe she took that instead. The additional month delay is bad news. I agree with the other poster, why said it's 4 weeks delayed now when you knew the deadline was missed weeks ago?

No surprise considering updated forecasts PoO mostly being lower