Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

BHX thanks for that. I was probably reading in to it too much. Whenever something is imminent then it would be sensible to overcompensate and be super careful.

I can't see anything 29-30th. However you're right about the 28th...the window is narrowing and getting later. Now it's >9hrs, <12hrs. Still enough for a try I think.

True, we're doing the same just we don't get paid upfront and could lose money :D

Let us know how you get on with the out of date cheese Bloo. Personally I'd probably give it a sniff and take it from there!

NewKOTB, Thanks for the reminder about that. I suppose that might explain the share price slipping over that period, as that's a lot of shares to shift. I guess they didn't want in if Fortuna wasn't happening.

Mytton, I see what you mean now about the price. I was seeing it as people getting in, and pushing up the price, to take the gamble on an offer being made and making a quick buck. On the other hand, if the offer isn't made, they will quickly sell out along with those who bought in when the offer was made. Maybe in a month or so we'd stabilise back at 48p assuming PoO is at a similar level like you say. Hard to tell really when the share price has been so distorted since the offer.

I find it an interesting observation. What would they have to gain by being painfully deadpan about it? I'm not saying they should speak in code to get anything positive out there but I don't think emotion requires too much restriction/filtering.

It's clearly not pure speculation. They have a thesis about the forces influencing the oil price and how they will be influenced by other developments. They're using that to model the future. It happens all the time in businesses and governments around the world. Sure it is often not correct, but you don't need to be 100% correct for it to have been a worthwhile exercise.

What's XEL got to do with SL sanction?

How is >48.5p guaranteed? There might be no offer by the end of Monday and the share price drops. What it drops to, who knows, but it's quite unlikely to rise.

I get the feeling selling SEA is the most likely deal - @55p, or somewhere around there. The would be the 'tax efficient' sale which was mentioned with respect to optimising the assets (I can't remember the exact wording from the RNS, but it was along those lines). To me, having had plenty of time to reflect on that RNS, it also suggests that there are other offers on the table for the assets, so potentially it could be someone new who we actually sell assets to. Hopefully something positive happens on Monday, I'm 65% confident of some type of offer...not long to wait now

Monday 28th seems to have a good >12hr slot. I suspect we'll try again then if the forecast stays the same. I don't think anything has changed following the last attempt. Something went wrong and they had to abandon the attempt, that's all we know. I won't conclude that it had to be abandoned because of the sea/weather conditions.

I don't think anyone breaking wind merits an RNS

Tess, I appreciate the sentiment but question whether you really mean that. What if a Chevron deal mean debt in 6 or 12 months was proportionally lower as a ratio to revenue or even fcf? Would that really still be a bad deal? I don't think so...but it remains to be seen what is possible until an offer is on the table or a deal is done. Overalls I'm skeptical as to what deal the market has priced in here to drop the SP by 10-15%...I just can't see how it could be worth -£100m market cap, that's just nuts

MrD is correct. After his is here https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/talo or search for it. That's 7% up after the news dropped on Market cap of $1.1bn.

So, Zama is as modelled but measurably derisked. Matte the $2.5m punt didn't pay off. Is that enough to have dropped 5% before end of trading, doesn't seem like it to me. It takes us a step closer to selling Zama which can only be positive.

Hmm, I'm not convinced that's the case. Considering RKH has dropped 5% too I'd say it's either bad Zama news or something negative Sea Lion related. Imy confident any Chevron purchase would reduce our debt ratio pretty quickly, otherwise it wouldn't happen.

Excellent, thanks for the link. They're always a good read. Where's Nigoil - were you offline writing the Edison report? :P

Haha, I was thinking exactly the same as you...I can't make head nor tail of what they're up to. If anyone does know it would be appreciated if they shared.

NYforever, That's almost right, it was from a Q&A but wasn't quite that specific. Something along the lines of: 4 weeks to stimulate, clean out treatment fluids and then test. 4 weeks straight up takes us to the 5th Feb, so I'm taking it is any time after that news is increasingly likely to drop.