Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

We just don't know if they are out or not, there's enough flexibility in the system for us to be left unsure for a while. I don't think it matters too much, the company just need to show some income in the near future, that'll change things.

I didn't realise the cash flow would be so significant! I can't wait for the share to be unfrozen...it's going to be exciting alongside a new prospectus

Not just any draw in products but 8m!

Thanks Mr.B. I actually meant completion of the facility can be done in H1, I guess putting it online is another matter. But that's what the end of year reports state. Agreed, full production in Q4 wouldn't be completely unexpected or disappointing considering where we're at now.

True, a fund raise is like pressing the reset button. It really could go either way. I guess it depends how promising TA looks and what the financial PoO environment is at the time. Still you'd hope if TA came good any fund raise surely wouldn't wipe out all of the losses...would it? It'd have to be quite a failure to do that.

Total CAPEX forecast is $36m for 2019, with cash at $17.4m. 2018 was about $38m CAPEX and cash only dropped $8.5m over the year. Obviously the timing of the spend is the sensitive bit. 2019 CAPEX breakdown is: $4m in Meseda seemingly in H1 (2x drills and 2x water injection wells) $18.5m on South Disouq pipeline seemingly in H1 $3.5m in South Disouq exploration (2x exploration wells) I'm late Q3&Q4 $10m in Morocco drilling in Q4 and maybe after (12x drills) It looks to me like H1 for SD online is achievable cash-wise and worst case it'd be Q3. However, there could be plenty of other reasons for a delay...

It's hard to read much in to the 'market's' value of RBD. We invested for the suite of potential successes; so far we're not too far in but it feels like we aren't doing too bad. There's more certainty about a few assets, some good and some not so good. Overall, I think we've just derisked a bit. Sentiment is down based on Coulter which has dragged the SP down. I don't know about the big seller, nobody does. In the absence of actual $ in the companies bank account I'm inclined to think it doesn't really matter too much what the SP was until that point. I guess that's fine unless I had to sell or the price was too high not to sell some, or I'd invested too much. Good luck all

Ahh ok, I also consider myself as part of the numpty brigade!

Nope it's not the only share. I guess PMO may have been a bit overbought prior to the drop in PoO, on reflection. They're not totally out of whack with others. I guess the exuberance led some, including me, to think we were getting re-rated this week and wouldn't lose most of the gains at the first sight of PoO wobbles. After that wobble the rig count came out with a 1% decrease. So I'm probably with Hawkey. There's no need to be rude. Trading might work if you have the time and the money. Most of us can't access sufficiently small buy/sell ranges to not have the house stacked against us. And we might just prefer anything. Honestly being a LTH seems to absorb enough time as it is!

I don't have your appetite for the risk Lolly but I do admire it. Having looked at the numbers, as has been said by a fair few others, it's hard to see much downside from here due to cash + production numbers...I suppose that all depends on PoO though, but if it goes that low then we've got bigger things to worry about. It feels like minimal future opportunity is priced in, and TA must be the next significant potential upside. So your choices suggests, consciously or not, that you still believe in a TA, likely if successful, multibagger/significant profit. I was hopeful before but the latest communications haven't felt as open as I might have wanted after the SP/market basically tells us that the company has negligible upside in the near future. I guess the reason I'm holding is because, with small companies, sentiment and lack of news seems to kill shares so easily. However, all of a sudden the SP can reflect the positivity you feel about a share and a big piece of news, surprise or anticipated, can change everything. That kind of change is much easier to be significant with a small MC company. Personally, at the moment I feel in the future I'd only use profit from other investments in such a small company. I can't see much downside or upside for the foreseeable, so if I can see it out to TA results then I'll do it. Then I'll be in for the result which was the reason I invested in the first place. The AIM game indeed...good luck all and thing long and hard about your investments and what people say on BBs :D

I like it Hawkey, leading the charge of the optimists after a surprising large, hard to explain, fall today!

Martine traffic is the site

I'm anticipating market cap of £250m-£300m post reverse takeover based on c.24,000bpd production. Amazing move by the board from my perspective!

Ditto, I'd expect around 50p. So on the less optimistic part of your range

Thanks Ocelot, very interesting. Also, API crude draw of 2.58m tonight.

Oh I don't doubt you at all. I guess like you suggest even if it is their plan A then it's always wise to have a plan B or C. After all, selling it requires a buyer willing to pay the right price, and that's out of PMO's control. Here's to hoping as the optimal plan for PMO and RKH and hopefully the buyer of Zama too

Thanks for the info Ovets. I agree that selling Zama, once appraised, makes sense as the less attractive investment proposition. I just worry sometimes that I'm being biased and doing wishful thinking. Either way it's enough for me to want to stick with this and see what happens.

Ovets - yes no doubt your useful posts have helped to nudge me in this direction and helped my understanding. The same goes for many others. My only doubt is that PMO really want to sell Zama, I feel less like that's their objective...it's just a massive asset that needs developing. I do hope you're right though. Nigoil - hymn sheet is a good analogy. I always used to mumble along when signing the hymns at Xmas, whereas maybe you're more like one of those who belted out the tune :D I do appreciate your posts though

I've just read through the whole PMO end of year results transcript while flicking through the slides. I recommend it for all here as I found it gave a lot of good context to Sea Lion's priority in their thinking. My general conclusion was the PMO need either Sea Lion or Zama to take them to the next level in the next few years. Catcher is keeping them going now but will start to decline over the next few years and they'll probably need more drills and maybe a N.Sea purchase or two to keep them stable. Tolmount is on its way and should start generating FCF in 2020. The way I see it is that they should be looking to be pouring money to develop some assets in that period and Sea Lion fits the bill perfectly. Naturally, anything can happen between now and 2020 or whenever one might try to predict into the future, which will completely change one's outlook. I just feel a bit more comfortable having read all that and noted the route export finance funding.

Are we not 'post-hearing' after the February hearing? That's what I'd read into it, although I admit following progress in the arbitration is incredibly difficult for me.