Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

IANAA 95p BULENT 96p ROCKLAWN 102 Withoutt 105 Hawkey 111

boyobach 215 IANAA 220 broadland 225 Bunks 227 Withoutt 230 PostieRemy 233 Hasiba 235 Ocelot 240

PoO seems to have recovered, for now at least. Also the USA is sending a strike group to the Middle East to counter Iran. I think the only thing we can be confident about is volatility. I for one am glad the UK market wasn't open today as it would have been an unpleasant morning.

Interesting lecture, thanks wheelman! I suppose all it really showed with respect to HUR is that unless there's a incredible change in the status quo the relentlessly increasing population of the world is going to demand significant amounts of oil. Although shale came along and changed the graph it still signals a likely increase in price to extract, meaning good assets will be profitable. However, it showed that the UK worrying about the paultry emmissions of 70m people is negligible compared to the 2/3/4% growth of countries with billions of people. If anything we should be saying let's make hay before the storm comes...because it's coming and no electric car subsidy is going to save us. We need either a massive reduction in population (mother nature will take care of that one with climate change), a massive technological leap so capturing GHGs is cheap (so that's down to the physical limitations of our universe really) or a huge globally agreed restraint on consumption, negative growth and population reduction (which will be heavily reliant on global political consensus). Unfortunately, my my hope is with technology but my money is on the failure of politics.

It's true the Market Makers aren't obliged to maintain an exact number of shares in stock...if that was the case then they wouldn't really have a purpose. As much as I'm also sceptical about manipulation there are explanations about how this is possible. It is not a perfect market and sentiment does influence prices. There are explanations out there about how share prices can be worked down, triggering stop-losses, shares accumulated slowly, then the share price increases and those shares then sold at the high. Doable given enough money, and much more likely to be successful when there's not really any imminent news expected (like here).

Gas!

I can't remember the last time someone came into my house to read my electricity and had meters

RRE gets a decent mention here: https://www.ft.com/content/d9e06710-60fa-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e Thanks to user flexmw on the Serica board for the original post.

Without 215 JL 217 IANAA 220 SCRDAG 223

MrEMC2 83 I-Spy 89 Jbatch 92 Givingthelowdown 97 Withoutt 102 Mrd5432 102.5 Bulent 107 Rocklawn 109 IANAA 110 Hawkey 111

Thanks, my mistake - I was looking at the publication of the report not the RNS!

That's fortunate you got some back with UKOG, what I've learned in my short time of being involved is that it's very easy to lose big and take a long, long time to get back to neutral. I had a big loss late last year, had to pile in to PMO heavily at the lows to earn back my losses...thankfully I'm there now but am mostly out of PMO as ENQ is much more attractive in terms of being priced cheaply. PMO price seems to be based in future production where ENQ is seemingly priced lower than current production...similar to GENL, but they have a risk factor of being in Iraq. I don't know if I'll hold to 75p but maybe, I'll take some off when we get around 28p+ and see how it looks from there.

Is that different to last year then? As the 2017 results were released at the end of May.

WEny, It sounds like you've made some smart moves over the years...have you been trading in and out with part of your holding? In my portfolio with about 7 different oilers in it's the one I have flagged with the most potential...aside from RRE which is frozen. I'm hopeful that RNS based confirmation of our production and a cashflow update will force the market to re-rate, as I imagine a dividend might be a few years away!

I suppose that description is all well and good, I think previously it was signalled to be completed in Q2 and I read a comment previously that it was pushed back by BP due to Iran. In all honesty I was struggling to make sense of the whole thing. I know these things are always more complicated than you imagine but almost a year to get the well online sounds crazy to me.

Was there any reason given for the delay of R3? On any conference call or anything that I may have missed? It doesn't seem to make sense to me as simplistically there's more than enough money to do it and it will increase income. Is it a spiteful delay to 'save' the income for when the %ages change?!

It'd be nice if the prospectus came out now with PoO riding so high... I imagined they'd wait and not release an annual report if possible and release all the info with the new prospectus. That's all assuming they can do that within the required window for publishing results.

Maybe you're right, the reserve currency thing is only a matter of time! It would cost America dearly.

Rangor 216 Boyobach 219 IANAA 220 Hawkey 222 Scoredagainsteps 224 Bunks 225 Oilheadgame 228 Withoutt 230 ocelot 233 broadland 235 Klassic 238 Hasiba 240 PostieRemy 245 JustinD 254

Albi, interesting post, however I can't see lots happening in the next 2 years really. For the point about divestment I only see that as a temporary price depression. Oil still brings in an absolute truckload of money for companies and country's economies. If you say the objective of a company is either to pay dividends or get bought out it shouldn't matter if the price is depressed by economically irrational selling. Once the selling is done the MMs will put the price back up as those who are holding will value the share relative to its potential dividend or target takeover price; no amount of selling will change that unless at that point you need to get your money out or the company needs to raise money. Those are the two scenarios in which I could see long term damage done by selling....otherwise they are great buying opportunities, which incidentally is the reason I'm here at all. I had the impression oil was dead but now I know much better than that. Which leads on to the second point about reduction of demand. If all electricity was generated renewably even that would only be a segment of oil demand...have you ever tried using a renewable powered generator? That doesn't work so well, and I think we like to think about well maintained, flexible national electricity infrastructure, but a lot of the world isn't like that at all. From the other energy perspective we need to also replace every car with a non fossil fuel version, rapidly. Again, maybe possible thinking about the rich west but what about the rest of the world?! Also what about planes, boats and militaries...I think it'll be a while before we see electrically powered Humvees, tanks and aircraft carriers used. The other major area is in plastics, textiles, as well as in detergents and pharmaceuticals etc. So that all needs replacing with an alternative, which presumably costs more to produce than oil based versions or are inferior (or both). All in all, despite the need, I can't see things changing enough quickly enough to be 'safely' below 2deg warming. The problem isn't people's desires and morals to do better, it's a globalised world where the cheapest wins...so no country can undergo decarbonisation alone without destroying it's economy, unless we all do it together. I will say though that the transition has begun, maybe a decade or so ago...however, it is a multidecade transition. Good luck with your rebalancing, I will rebalance too at some point when I think the PoO is looking unstable. There could be a black swan though, like a horrifically difficult hot summer which could push the world to acting much more quickly, I can't see it happening yet though. Who knows what else will happen in the next decade!