Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

Surely the oil will be exported won't it?

Yes true it could be a matter of priority/leadership time to make the right decisions. I hope you're right...it'd be nice to hear from the company, I've got nothing in my future timeline for SQZ except R3 I think.

It could be conserving the cash for a deal...but it's a long time it wait, if things were 'going' it could be on to paying for itself now - meaning no net cash loss, or worst case the additional revenue would help with any loan/share price or whatever was needed for a buyout.
Thanks for the info Dilberty - I'll have to read up about hydrated wells. Redrilling sounds pricy but chemical cleaning doesn't sound absurdly expensive.

Ahh ok.
I still can't quite understand why they can't just inspect then intervene quickly...it wasn't headlined as anything too complex and the outcome is free money!

The R3 intervention was pushed back to Q1 2020, it wasn't really clear why that was the case though.

I haven't seen anything which isn't defacto correct:
SDX may be a takeover target (not committal speculation - true) given the low historic valuation (true compared to historic share price).
SDX are for sale (true - by definition being on the stock market means your for sale).
Are there any more details?

Interesting but a bit suspect, is it to drive subscribers?
You can really say much about SDX and Sound bring for sale as well as explaining Rothschild's interests in just 216 words.
What's that about 2 paragraphs, so I'm guessing it's just idle speculation.

Not long now, I'm expecting -5m or something around there, -10m would be a good result.

Where have you seen these rumours?

It doesn't seem to have been published. Last year they were on the 28th August.

Maybe they agreed with a seller to time the buys/sells through the same market maker so that required a certain exchange.
Maybe it's just the algorithm trying to satisfy certain parameters...it all looks fairly random to be but I don't doubt there's some method to the madness, effective or not.

Why post some commentary from Jan, it's no longer accurate. Those Chevron assets were sold to Delek for $2bn.
What is your point?

When are people expecting Zama to have been fully appraised?
Considering the drills are now complete, is it a matter or a month or two to analyse the samples and remodel?
The only related date I've found which is talked about is Zama FID in 2020.

I couldn't see that fund with RRE in it, I saw one with IOG and SQZ in under that name. Do you have a link?
Interesting idea, but I'd guess it's somewhat priced in, I'm not sure how though.

Jan that's absolutely possible.

I agree with your points but I'd add/modify a few (but maybe I'm just a pessimist):
1a) Election year trump also wants to see low 'gas' prices
3a) Putin also seems like he wants to keep his powder dry, KSA are much more transparent about what they want. I think he likes holding the balance of power for leverage purposes.
4) Interest rates and the impact on lenders seems like it will be the decisive factor in how long shale can carry on for in its current for (+PoO of course). The decrease in interest rates could prolong it for another 6-12 months, who knows. If rates stay the same and shale is really not profitable then I see a spike coming.

ATB to you too

Must it not be RNS'd? GENL's are each day with each trade reported, but maybe that's a strategic choice!?

Jan,
I didn't express a range just greater than, anyway I'm talking more about confidence than absolute numbers or ranges - the point is that the volatility of the last 12 months has spooked the market and it's enough to believe oil could go down to 50 and stay for a while just as much as it could go to 80. And the reasons why the recent volatility was there are still unresolved.
Also oil has absolutely been >$65 for over 12 months, where were you 2010-2015?

Kraken performing well is great, however shale dropping off like it seems the market should force, as others mention, would be the game changer.

My interpretation is that it is the higher production costs which has suppressed the price (at least when compared to PMO, I don't know TLW well enough to say). That combined with the heavy debt burden means we're more vulnerable to a lower PoO and that's the threat.
It was different with higher prices when they peaked in 2018, there was less trade war stress, less worry about a downturn and less data around about shale production. I think now the assessment is more sober and people aren't comfortable predicting more than 6 months ahead.
Untill the debt is paid, we've got loads of decent priced hedges in place or PoO looks like it will be >$65 or so for the next 12-24 months we are staying here I fear.

That to me sounds like unrestricted cash is more than double our MCap at suspension.
Cash (unrestricted) = £216m
MCap = £103m

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