Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

I was thinking the same CF. Is this why they put EPS info in the RNS, this is not according to plan and has delayed testing? After all they only said they'd update is if anything didn't go to plan.

Does the article say what the market cap/debt/production is of those who went bankrupt?
Also, are who is picking over their assets?

Yes with reserves but not with a much less attractive investment. Where even shake is looking a little...Argentinian, shall we say?

I'm not sure why the production per well has increased in the last few months in the Permian, recent data is always a bit shaky though. It takes months to get the accurate data out. I can't imagine a few months trend would be enough to change forecasts?! By what do I know?
I always saw the new infrastructure as reducing OPEX now allowing any new oil in. Lower OPEX might increase production but considering the trend of shale at the moment I think they'd just take the free cash flow and pay off some of those $100bn+ of debts.

I think part of it must be that the rigs are drilling further horizontally and therefore produce more per drill. A lot of the rig deployment efficiency gain was drilling multiple wells from the same pad meaning less delays in redeployment.
I don't think that accounts for all of it though and am expecting shale oil production to drop in Q4, maybe Q3 also...

Hi GTLD, yes I see what you mean. Also good point about the increased efficiency Beerbull. According to Shale Profile, the efficiency increased in 2016 but has stayed constant since 2017 when normalised for horizontal length.

However, I was thinking more along the lines of this: https://postimg.cc/4Yrp9Mvb
Rig count has dropped off, CAPEX has reduced yet production is still climbing...that's the bit that doesn't compute for me and it's significant as shale production drops off so rapidly.

Too much oil because of an 80k bpd increase? Yet you say a 10% decrease in shale drilling activity over the last 9 months is insignificant?
Perplexing...

How is is meaningless? Are you saying it's insignificant compared to other factors?

Another drop on the US rig count is bullish though. -12 from 916 to 904. It's been dropping pretty consistently as shale driller reign in the CAPEX. As wells peak in the first 6 months it wouldn't be a surprise to start to see a drop off in shale production, which IIRC satisfies about 7% of world demand.

Also the Chinese reduced their imports from the US, so it's even more surprising it's a massive draw. Shale slowing down or has balance been restored?!

NI is a pro...in my experience thus far it's best to tune them out.

I totally agree at least in so far as we need to see progress is within guidance...and we're getting close to the next milestone now

It would be nice to get confirmation of the arrival of the CPF. The FAT seems to have finished 1 week late though and there are 7 further weeks of contingency which could get used.

Therefore I'm expecting end of Aug, but let's hope the good news comes this coming week.

Crude is -2.19m according to investing.com

My money is on all of the above (Divi, buyback and buyout) all before the end of the year!
They've gotta do something with the cash and they'd have to spend it quite badly to result in market cap decrease...not impossible though.

Ahh ok, not sure why I had 15th August down...mid September it is then

It looks like last year our half year results were mid-Aug. Is there any reason to believe they won't be around the same time this year?

I have 15th in the diary based on last year, but there were director share purchases in the 31st. So maybe we need to wait until the start of September.

P.s. topped up again this week as I couldn't resist the price dropping under £19 when considering the growing cash pile.

Also that's with another step down in CAPEX and shale production drops off a cliff for new wells within 12 months.

The big question is how long will it take for everything to rebalance? I think in the 1-2 year timescale oil will be 60-70, but the next 12 months it could go to 50 or up to 65 dependent on Trump/China, shale production, Saudi Arabia, global economic slowdown...

Shale will not be able to pay it's debts with WTI <$55...it could barely pay interest in Q2 with WTI averaging c.$59 (iirc).

I might be being thick but I still don't get it. I understand if the price of 1 share is high then that can limit trading.

After that it doesn't really matter if you're talking about 100 shares or 100,000 shares in my mind.

I accept it's significant if a small proportion of the shares are held by the market makers, but that's their job to get fluidity and increase the price if shares aren't available.

I'm happy to hear an explanation as to what the difference is of having 13m shares in issue Vs 13bn!