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I don't think a full timeline has been indicated for the additional wells....are we thinking they'll be done and tested before the end of the year?
Also PMO might be interested, if they sell Zama, but my gut feel is they'd just pay off debt and/or go for Sea Lion (if they find another interested party). Maybe someone with more cash like RRE would be better placed than a company with loads of debt. DNO were interested in getting into the N.Sea so maybe they'd stretch to UK onshore? I don't know enough about other companies, but Ineos are always linked to assets...and the people that did but the Chevron fields (an Israeli company I think?)

I don't know how they find the time (and money) for all that!

The market capitalisation ignorance is baffling. I've seen it come up a few times in the past few weeks.

Sorry, what's the WWN deadline?
Is 2 and 1/2 too short to pop in the freezer? :P

It's interesting to think that the Yemen war is basically a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both of which have a big interest in oil price rising due to their production and need (Viz-a-viz keeping in power by paying out generously from the state coffers). Does that not mean they can dial up or down the war intensity/attacks outside of Yemen as and when they wish. Admittedly it is mostly Iran driven but SA might be inclined to 'allow' some infrastructure damage to ensure PoO gets a decent bump.

We'd be worth more to BP than the share price as they have the ability to spend more rapidly that HUR in developing up production of all those reserves. Considering what we have in potential reserves, producing 20kbpd is low compared to what's possible.
They'll be waiting until the risk is low enough for them to be sure they weren't just buying a bunch of tiny fields.

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

I wonder how long it will take to sell off WN. I suppose the plan changed with the oil meaning decent production is now available for low CAPEX. But what happens after that? It's not like we'd be looking for a small company to come in, take over and want to develop up the area using its cashflow. In that scenario we aren't likely to get a good price for the asset.

We need someone with deep pockets who can develop it fast. The being the case, I can't see how much difference the early development makes. The key step is flow testing and updating the CPR. After that's done surely it's a sales exercise with the fallback plan being to do a bit of production to pay the bills and ensure we aren't forced to sell quickly. I'd have thought we'd want to have sold it within 3-6 months, not be mired in a multiyear field development plan.

Any other thoughts?

DrB, although the BOD may have spent some time discussing why the share price hasn't risen higher on good news I doubt it's a major focus. A good BOD should be following through on the plan of proving up the reserves and generating cash flow to expand and delivering on the expansion of production. Maybe they'll decide to do things a little bit different media-wise but I think the sp reaction isn't extreme enough to influence the mechanics of the plan.

Patience is key if you still believe in the company, and I can't see any reason to have changed your beliefs. That said, having invested in a few shares for a while I think more and more the only way to avoid companies being undervalued (or sometimes massively overvalued) is to pay a reliable dividend. Therefore I think when we can see the vision for HUR in some years time paying a dividend and be convinced they can make it there without major risk we'll be golden.

I'd have to go back and check if the 8 weeks contingency could be considered as mid-Nov + 8 weeks = end of Dec/Q4.
I'm choosing my optimistic view so I'm hoping for early Oct :)

Considering the SD plant made it to transportation mid-Aug on time, the 'live' due date was mid-Nov and this included an 8 weeks contingency could we expect SD to go live any time now.
I'm thinking mid-Nov minus 8 weeks takes us to the 20th Sept. So technically any time after that we could be up and running!
I know it's wishful thinking but I'm hoping the board are able to overdeliver from now on to restore confidence, and would be busting a gut to do so.

Let's hope so! I will wait to see the delayed trades first though. Price was kept low all morning with very little going on, seems to be on the up now though.

Yep good points.
Takeover would be too expensive.
Merger wouldn't work because of the different models!

Let's hope they both just find something nice to buy :)

I quite like the idea of a merger (I'm also in both companies)...however, I do agree with your list of differences/issues. Also, who would be in control and which model would be followed?!
All considered though I'd argue the combination would reduce risk and make more cash available to invest, enhancing both companies.

They're over on RRE at the moment wilfully misunderstanding some cash flow figures!
Plus ca change....

I gave you the stats for RRE, that reflects more recent data post merger. Similar production to HUR and loads of cash yet mcap is £240m.
Serica is maybe a poor comparitor but their gas prices are hedged so the equivalent bpd is somewhat relevent.
I said Genel's mcap was £535m, I wasn't trying to hoodwink you! Yes they're in Iraq but minimal CAPEX is required to maintain production. Swings and roundabouts as they're just comparisons not identical.

As you've set the bar so high where is the carbon copy of HUR valued at £1.5bn?

I've provided examples of companies broadly similar to calibrate price expectations.

Rockrose - RRE - 22kbpd, £240m mcap, £240m cash
Serica - SQZ - 30kbpd, £316m mcap, £136m cash
Genel - GENL - 38kbpd, £535m mcap, £110m cash
Those are the ones I follow as they seem like they have value to give.
Where's the £1.5bn mcap producer in that range of production?

Where is the similar company producing the same amount as HUR and is valued at a P/E of 15?
I've never seen one.

I'm only here because I think it's undervalued, but it's not undervalued based on where we are right now (give or take 10-15p). I think it's undervalued based on what the company will become (i.e. more in line with the broker forecasts).
Lancaster hasn't produced long enough for us to have evidence that there are many years of production there, that's what you need (plus some more) to be worth £1.5+.

I suppose I mean more the promise of 60kbpd in the next few years. You're right if we produced that we'd be £1.5-£2bn probably. I think once the plan to 60kbpd is clear how it'd be funded, relatively low risk and delivered in 1/2 years then we'd see £1+

I'd say at the moment we're valued at company which produces around 60kbpd so I think already some of the growth is baked in.

P/E of 15 is highly optimistic for a small oil company!
If you look there are plenty of oil companies producing around this amount and are worth about £300m.