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Post PM press conference:
More testing required as the roll out of vaccine is not progressing as fast as planned.
What was not mentioned was that the FDA has issued a statement not allowing the the extended time period between 1st and 2nd dose.
What we also know is that existing tests are not working as rapid Covid tests
In addition we are talking about a very short time period before Avacta will be on the scene.
The demand will be in billions!!!

Meanwhile back to the stock market,
Over the last 4 weeks, the two vaccine manufacturers pre AZN,
Moderna and Pfizer are down respectively 26% and 9%!!

From the FDA :
“
We have been following the discussions and news reports about reducing the number of doses, extending the length of time between doses, changing the dose (half-dose), or mixing and matching vaccines in order to immunize more people against COVID-19. These are all reasonable questions to consider and evaluate in clinical trials. However, at this time, suggesting changes to the FDA-authorized dosing or schedules of these vaccines is premature and not rooted solidly in the available evidence. Without appropriate data supporting such changes in vaccine administration, we run a significant risk of placing public health at risk, undermining the historic vaccination efforts to protect the population from COVID-19.”

More trouble for the vaccine companies, testing is required regularly .

With the upcoming COVID testing news from Avacta it is worth reminding us of what the company said in their latest update, as we are facing extended total lockdown,testing at the Borders, Tier one group requiring regular rapid testing , frequent home testing,large businesses etc will need repeat rapid testing :
From their latest update:
“In addition, the Group has made excellent recent progress with its SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow rapid antigen test programme and we anticipate data from the first clinical trial soon. Our clinical evaluation of the BAMS™ laboratory assay is ongoing at two UK clinical sites that Avacta has established and we have made significant commercial progress for all of our coronavirus testing solutions, establishing scalable routes to market for these products to meet the anticipated very high demand. I look forward to reporting on progress on all these fronts in the New Year and to a very exciting 2021 for the Group.”
Note the comment” establishing scalable routes to market to meet the anticipated very high demand”, well that very high demand is a unit number much higher than any forecast out there and that is off course just domestic,overseas buyers will be lining up.
As the Ceo of Roche said, we need Billions of tests for a long time and with the Vaccine companies not coping with current and est. demand, Avacta will be like Arm Holdings prior to the IPhone took off!
Avacta is very similar to Arm Holdings and will be recognised as another triumph for UK science based in Cambridge.
To be able to pick up Avacta at current prices, will be considered the bargain of 2021.
PS
US buyers entering at the usual time of the day.

Great news that we have AZN fast tracked and good luck to them.HOWEVER the upcoming est demand for testing is to be in billions according to CEO’s of leading pharma’s incl. Roche etc.We have several variations of the virus spreading and mandatory testing will now not only involve front end workers, such as hospitals, nursing homes, police etc but also UNI’s, schools, supermarket staff, we are then moving to large organisation, airports etc, the most recent £950 mill tender from DHSC will not feature the three “ existing “ CE testing manufacturers, as they have all shown shortfalls and will not be invited to participate.There is only one manufacturer that can and will comply with the requirements and that is Avacta!

Back to reality!
The slower-than-promised rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. prompted a series of frustrated social-media rants and other expressions of outrage on Tuesday, with public health experts blasting the federal government’s failure to take the lead, while President-elect Joe Biden lamented that “the effort is not progressing as it should.”
The U.S. has so far vaccinated just 2.1 million people and distributed 11 million doses of the two vaccines that have been granted emergency-use authorization, one developed by Pfizer Inc. PFE, +0.62% with German partner BioNTech SE BNTX, +0.19% and the other developed by Moderna Inc. MRNA, +2.68%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
That is far below projections made by “Operation Warp Speed,” the federal government program created to accelerate the development of treatments and vaccines against COVID-19. Biden noted that leaders of that program had set a goal only recently of having 20 million Americans receive a first vaccine dose by year-end and, with just two days left in the year, stand one-tenth of the way toward that figure.

The actual number of vaccines delivered is a small fraction of what was promised.
“
In October,” said Kavita Patel, a primary-care physician and health-policy expert who served in the Obama White House, “we heard from Operation Warp Speed that we would have 100 million doses by year-end,” she said. “We kind of thought that was unreasonable. Then the expectation dropped to 40 million and then to 20 million by the end of December. We have dosed 2.2 million, which is far short of that 20 million.”

More news from Avacta in the short term i would have thought and MHRA ready with the check book.
If you want make this Christmas good at all, buy more Avacta.
Come January, it will have a new target price north of 550p

Matt Han**** about to announce further lock downs.
Much more testing required.
John Hopkins Medical institute in the States have released a new report on required testing, real number is 6 million test per day required vs 1.9 mill at the moment.The virus is spreading faster than ever.
Interesting Paragraph in the study:

The minimum targets for testing symptomatic people are based on modeling growth of current outbreaks. It assumes a modest two contacts per infection get tested, because of the difficulties many states report conducting contact tracing. Since as many as 1 out of 2 infections are spread by people without symptoms, more ambitious testing efforts are needed for communities to screen high-risk, asymptomatic people.
"Just focusing on testing people who have symptoms or their close contacts is really not enough. That has been the Achilles' heel of our entire disease outbreak control," Jha says. "We've never really had a strategy for identifying people with asymptomatic infection."
To capture those cases, Jha and his collaborators propose that communities should be testing, at a minimum: 20% of students and teachers in K-12 schools weekly; college and university students, prisoners and guards, health care workers and first responders weekly; and nursing home residents and staff twice weekly.
"What we need is a jump-start of our testing if we want to actually move to an offensive strategy around active screening of our asymptomatic individuals," says Dr. Thomas Tsai

Follow up on today’s License Agreement with Astraea Bioseparations owned by Gamma Biosciences.
It is worth remembering the objective of Gamma Biosciences as set out by KKR.

“KKR, a leading global investment firm, today announced the formation of a new platform, Gamma Biosciences (“Gamma” or “the Company”), which will operate a portfolio of companies focused on next-generation bioprocessing technologies for the production of advanced biologic therapies. KKR and co-investors have committed to invest $200 million in Gamma. For KKR, the investment is from its Health Care Strategic Growth Fund, which is focused on high-growth companies for which KKR can be a unique partner in helping reach scale.”
The head of Gamma Biosciences is Matt Gunnison, former Global Head of Business development for GE healthcare ( Now Cytiva, owned by Danaher Corporation),he joined Gamma Biosciences when Danaher bought GE Life sciences.
So having a KKR Health Care platform signing up with Avacta and having the Ceo of the subsidiary Astrea saying “ the Affimer platform dramatically expands our comprehensive capacity to discover and develop custom Affinty platforms for biotherapeutics and advanced therapies”, clearly suggests further JV’s to be announced financed by Gamma (KKR) and their strategy is set out as follows: by acquiring or investing in high-potential businesses with outstanding technology and accelerating their growth.
Avacta have off course the Covid tests to focus on and will create an amazing company and but at the same time building Avacta on the non-Covid side with companies like KKR.
Your no1 buy in the health care sector!

Once Avacta is supplying the most accurate and fastest tests on the market, we have a company with a SOP, which will attract further interest for a US listing in Q2 or prior to that a “ friendly take over “, in order to remain in Cambridge.
The volume of test requirements is beyond any current estimates.
As Roche, Sanofi etc said, “ we are talking about Billions of test demand for years to come.
Commercial businesses domestic and overseas will be lining up with contract proposals as well.

Could be a lively afternoon, US buying appearing again it seems.

2 Alaska Health Workers Got Emergency Treatment After Receiving Pfizer’s Vaccine
One of the workers, who did not have a history of allergies, remained in the hospital on Wednesday night. Some reactions to the vaccine were also reported last week in Britain.
Image
Vaccines being prepared in Fargo, N.D., on Monday. The reaction was believed to be similar to the reactions two health workers in Britain experienced after receiving the Pfizer vaccine last week. They both recovered.
Vaccines being prepared in Fargo, N.D., on Monday. The reaction was believed to be similar to the reactions two health workers in Britain experienced after receiving the Pfizer vaccine last week. They both recovered.Credit...Tim Gruber for The New York Times

I believe it will be a Q1 story, which would mean the Covid-19 testing up and running, which will generate earnings upside, easily validating a new target price of 700+.
If one were to look at Avacta entering 2021 and then add up the various division’s potential, well then we are in the major league.
The Covid crisis has reminded major UK companies and indeed the Government of sovereignty and it is my opinion that Astra Zeneca will make sure Avacta remains in Cambridge and not end up listed on Nasdaq and AZN will pay for that.

Astra Zeneca are key investors in both Moderna and ADC Therapeutics, both companies have JV agreements with Avacta.
Next one for Astra Zeneca to have a seat on board of is AVCT, does not come for free!!
AZN wants to get involved prior to US listing!!

Interesting trades going through

More corporate activity in the Stem Cell Gene therapy area, with Eli Lilly?s takeover of Prevail Therapeutics ( PRVL ), 85% percent premium to yesterday?s closing price.This will extend Lilly?s research efforts with this entry into Gene therapy. Great read across to Avacta-Daewoong AffyXell JV and increases the valuation of the JV.

Many variance of the virus.
Testing required even more, as Roche said, billions of test required.
Well into 2022

Avacta at 107 is quite frankly a joke and next on AZN’s shopping list

Germany entering full lock down as is several countries in the EU
PM making statement at 11.30 ref EU
JNJ , AZN etc delaying vaccine, back to the drawing board Roche talking about billions of tests needed for another year.
Several test companies have stopped their UK tests operations, not accurate enough,
We have short term traders on the boards, clearly not being able to hold to their position due to financial reasons, whilst we just keep picking up cheap stock as is the US investor every afternoon, well our average price vs the price post announcement will look rather clever.
159% profit by Christmas.

Le Week end approaching, Adieu to the EU deal, meanwhile Avacta storming ahead towards BAMS CE deal and new contracts to be announced hopefully asap.
Picking up stock at these prices is a steal.
Have a good week end everybody.
PS all milestone payments to Avacta are in USD, weak sterling for a while!