Member Info for Hurst10

Indeed, let us apply A M&A premium, AZN will defend AVCT, keep it in Cambridge.

Interesting to see Quidel, provider of rapid diagnostics testing solutions making approaches to Qiagen, maker of covid-19 products , such as recently announced kits for wastewater testing.
The Covid testing companies carries a forward earnings PE, but no M&A premium what so ever!

Following yesterday’s update, it is important that we focus on what the company is lining up.
A consortium of manufacturers , who will be able to handle the initial demand of several millions of LFT’s a month.Avacta also informed us that they are talking to additional manufacturer domestically and abroad, to meet additional demand.
What is important to remember and focus on,is that Avacta is the test developer and the consortium is the manufacturers.Avacta put all this together.The demand for LFT’s will be substantially greater than the market have in their numbers.Not only the public sector,but the private sector will be knocking on the door, life going forward will have the LFT and PCR testing working together and will produce a society where we will be able to identify the asymptomatic cases,in many cases, can eliminate the 10 day quarantine,as up 70% of PCR positive cases are past the the infectious stage, the short window of transmissibility contrasts with a median 22-33 days of PCR positivity.
So a LFT test while they are waiting two days for a PCR result will be the answer and facilitating the economy getting back into action.
The demand for Avacta’s LFTs will be substantial domestically and abroad, with global conglomerates lining up orders, carrying an attractive margin.By Q2 Avacta will have Nasdaq float to consider.

Abingdon has confirmed, that they lost Government order at the latest result announcement, as they did not have MHRA approval by 25th December

Ps. Do we have an est. figure what the Government is paying per LFT

What we have to remember Surescreen etc do not have a MHRA approved test and do not have the manufacturing capacity.
Only one has the capacity lined up, Only one has JV’s with billion dollar Pharma companies, only one has produced about to be launched and approved Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Test.
The numbers going forward will justify a share price several times current price.

A group of leading experts, including academics from the Universities of Liverpool, Harvard and Oxford, issued a statement supporting the use of rapid lateral flow antigen tests (Ag-LFTs) as an essential tool in public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Extracts:
Most people infected with SARS-CoV-2 are contagious for only 4 – 8 days. This fits with the observed patterns of virus transmission (primarily in days 2 – 5 after symptom onset) that led public health agencies around the world to recommend a 10 day isolation period.
The short window of transmissibility contrasts with a median 22-23 days of PCR positivity. longer with severe infections and usually shorter for both contagiousness and PCR positivity (15 day) among asymptomatic individuals. Over 70% of the time an individual is PCR positive, they will be in the post infectious state.
LFT are now widely used in the UK. More than 2 million kits have produced results in front line operations and >27,000 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals have been identified (figure up to 6th January 2021) who would otherwise not have been asked to self isolate so quickly, if at all. The rapid self isolation of many of these individuals will have broken chains of transmission of the virus in ways that could not be achieved with PCR tests. To conclude, the LFT is an additional risk reduction measure not a replacement for PCR as the authors imply.
LFTs picks up people who are infectious and who might pass the virus onto other people while waiting one or two days for a PCR test.
So LFT tests and PCR tests have very different purposes.

Pfizer,Moderna,Glaxo combined year end vaccine production target, will not even cover 15% of the world’s population!
The virus and it’s various variants will be around for a couple of years to come and LFT rapid tests will be the norm est. to be 400 mill a month just in the UK.
Avacta with their substantial manufacturing partners,present and future, will be able to cover that capacity, just domestically!
Avacta,Roche, Abbott Labs,Quidell have a market of several billions of LFTs a month W/W.With initial margins that are mind blowing. As the company grows, more and more index funds will also have to buy the stock as well.
The minute we have further news, the share price will end up north of 200p within a day and then start to move forward steadily.

At least he is trying to wear a better suit than his predecessor, but that is about it.He reminds me of a door to door salesman

Hear,Hear!

Cytiva made their first acquisition this week,since part of Danaher, who will they look at next?
Have Danaher?s cash and will travel.

Surescreen has a CE umbrella of some sorts and Innova ...good luck.

The Swiss will be back

With regards to the EU and France in particular , without upsetting our friends in Notting Hill, it was not that look ago, a generation or three, that France was rather keen to open the Borders to the English. The French president’s wife is almost old enough to remember that??The French are very good at two things: hosting invasions and making wine
??
Salute

Late post market print of 14930 at 123, timed at 17.07.

REF Adeptrix and Bruker series A Investment

Dr. Rohan A. Thakur, EVP of Life Sciences Mass Spectrometry at Bruker Daltonics, commented: "Our partnership with Adeptrix is important as it enables wider access to critical BAMS assay technology for translational research using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry, which is capable of analyzing thousands of samples per day.

Well he might as well have said “ we did this investment so Adeptrix can handle the manufacturing capital required for the JV with Avacta

I have become very bullish on the timing of news, as I believe Bruker would not have signed up the collaboration agreement, requires manufacturing etc to stand by and earlier this month we saw Bruker investing inAdeptrix via a series A investment.

Agree, we are dealing with a virus with several variants, the latest story, is labs are preparing for a pandemic like Influenza!
Testing will be here for a long time.

The real est number

I believe the discussion and realisation that current vaccines have not yet showed a satisfactory result that the vaccines are as effective with the SA variant and the demand for testing will explode and stay here till next year.At current rate of vaccines delivered, it would take 7 years to vaccine the global population.
Avacta will draw a lot of attention with upcoming roll out of covid test, Government orders etc and then AVA 6000 phase one trials.The majors will start to pay even more attention to Avacta and future news flow

If one were to look at the est. “ front line “ workforce in the UK, it would give us the following numbers:
8,8 mill pupils.
500,000 teachers
+
120,000 Doctors
300,000 nurses
+
1mill employed in food retailing sector
+
2.3 mill in Hospitality
+
140,000 in Police
If we would assume the above group would require just twice a week testing,that would be equivalent to about 26 mill tests a week!
+
6 mill in the private sector.
+
Heathrow handled 80 mill passengers in 2019
We still do not know how long the various vaccines will give you immunity against the main virus and off course, does the various vaccines prevent you passing on the virus.
Still huge concern about the current vaccines incl. JNJ’s just announced and how effective they will be against all the variants.
We have Bruker etc signing up with Avacta, having done full DD and prepared to commit working capital for expected roll out of the Covid Rapid test.It is a matter of when, not if, we have Avacta pushes the button and the expected demand will 100’ of millions a month. The market will have to make significant upward earnings revision not seen since Arm holdings was around.
A long note, sorry, but buy as much as you can, because this quarter will be one to remember.
Look what guidance Abbott Labs, Quidel etc gives the market,” significant uplift to current earnings forecast”.
Avacta will make the travel stocks, hotels, airlines etc look like a bargain later this quarter, once operation Asymptomatic testing is paying off.