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Workers could be tested for Covid every day to avoid them needing to self-isolate if they come into contact with someone infected with the virus, a top scientist claimed today.

England's 'pingdemic' chaos has led to warnings that supermarkets may be left with empty shelves and lead to the 'most serious' food shortages since WWII.

But Oxford University researchers say the rules could be replaced with daily swabs in workplaces.

Their trial revealed the scheme was just as effective at preventing outbreaks among children as sending home an entire 'bubble' for ten days whenever someone tested positive.

Professor Tim Peto, one of the experts behind the study, said the testing approach could be applied to workplace settings.

If No10 adopted the policy, it would allow millions to return to work and would stop industries from collapsing in the face of quarantine chaos. A record 1.3million self-isolation alerts were sent out across the country last week.

Absolutely, however it puts the company on the radars screen of US Biotech funds who monitor these FDA screens

Novartis interview

We have FDA phase 1 trials commencing, domestic and overseas contracts around the corner, daily contact testing at schools etc and further confirmation of the above, will easily have + 35% on the share price for starters.
If you read this week’s post Q1 result’s interview, with the CEO, you can see how excited and committed he is to expanding in the Radiotherapy area, with more acquisitions and Capex being spent. Avacta and Friday trading always goes well.

UK food workers to be exempt from Covid isolation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57937342
Daily tests !!

Great advertising for the phase 1 trial

ClinicalTrials.gov was created as a result of the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997 (FDAMA). FDAMA required the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through NIH, to establish a registry of clinical trials information for both federally and privately funded trials conducted under investigational new drug applications to test the effectiveness of experimental drugs for serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions. NIH and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) worked together to develop the site, which was made available to the public in February 2000.

Follow up on the rumour of Quidel bidding for Orasure Technologies, latest is that Orasure is starting a sales process after the bid.
This will only gives us a proper idea of what Wall Street values their COVID-19 rapid antigen test division to be worth and would be a huge read across valuation for the sector.
From Orasure latest Q1 Earnings conference call.
The Ceo:
“However, as variants continue to spread, testing will continue to play a crucial part in mitigating the spread of the virus and helping to safely reopen workplaces, schools, and other places where people gather. A recent McKinsey report notes that rapid, accurate testing will play a key role as the transition back to pre-pandemic routines continues.
The emergence of new, more contagious variants of the coronavirus underscores the importance of testing to detect infection even as vaccination campaigns continue. Scientists are particularly concerned about the rising prevalence of variants, which they say could prolong the pandemic. When you factor in vaccine hesitancy, it becomes apparent that achieving herd immunity may take longer than hoped for – or even be elusive. Experts estimate that 70% to 85% of the population must be vaccinated to stop the spread of COVID-19. Yet, a quarter of Americans say they probably or definitely will not get vaccinated. In some states supply is now higher than demand.
Outside the U.S., however, the vaccine rollout is slower. Bloomberg projects it will take years to achieve significant global herd immunity, while McKinsey notes that herd immunity may look different across the world, with some areas achieving it, others moving in and out of it, and some failing to achieve it due to vaccine hesitancy.
Market research reports forecast a robust testing market with estimates of total global volumes for molecular and antigen tests in the range of two billion to four billion tests in 2021. Consequently, we believe the need for convenient, safe and accurate testing will continue alongside vaccination rollouts, and our tests and molecular sample collection kits will be critical to this effort.”

Raymond James Human Health Innovation Conference will commence tomorrow, June 21-23, with Quidel presenting as well as Orasure Tech ( the Covid test manufacturer, rumoured to be acquired by Quidel!) presenting .

Ask FDA about orient gene....

With all the billions of European Pension capital available for mandatory ESG related investments, a COVID related fund, testing etc is on the cards and will most likely be launched any time.
Another interesting fact is that the Scientists are particularly concerned about the rising prevalence of variants , which they say could prolong the Pandemic.
Buy NOW

Interesting development in the sector.We are faced with strong uptick in home testing, future OTC sales of Avacta LFT, overseas sales confirmation and now we have have the first potential M&A in the global pier group of LFT’s manufacturers.
Yesterday US based Quidel Corporation was rumoured to be acquiring Orasure technologies,with both companies refusing to comment.
It will of course give the sector a firm guidance of what valuation Wall Street puts on the Covid Testing sector!
Market research reports forecast a robust testing market with estimates of total global volume for Molecular and Antigen tests in the the range of 2 billion to 4 billion tests in 2021!
With Avacta continues to be looking and talking to the overseas markets as well as domestic opportunities,the above development will put a re rating on the sector and indeed Avacta with current total est monthly manufacturing capacity of 60mill !!

Conclusion from this month’s article from BMJ:
Incompetence, corruption, and outsourcing to the private sector are the hallmarks of the UK government’s approach to both testing and tracing during the covid-19 pandemic. The extended authorisation for Innova tests and the basis for the extension must be published immediately, along with all of the evidence of performance and evaluation of these LFTs, if a modicum of public trust is to be restored.

50000 new cases, highest since January

Indonesia’s daily Covid-19 case count has passed Brazil to become the worst in the world, hitting a record 56,757 on Thursday as the highly-contagious delta variant rampages through the nation.
Avacta’s indication of overseas markets,Indonesia,Vietnam etc is right up there on the leader board!

U.S. COVID-19 cases more than double in two weeks as delta variant spreads fast, and WHO warns ‘pandemic nowhere near finished

Meanwhile the usual post market prints and closing price at 137

Thanks for the update, however is the EUA only extended to end of August?
Ie. Before the new school term begins?

COVID-19: More than half a million people in England pinged by NHS test and trace app in a week, the highest figure recorded
A total of 520,194 alerts were sent to app users in the week to July 7 - up 46% on the previous week - as fears grow about the number of people being told to self-isolate.

Off course the FDA recall does not stop our government using the tests on school children etc!

From the original recall letter in April from Innova, mentioning the possibility of death, because of incorrect test reading !!

The FDA has identified this as a Class I recall, the most serious type of recall. Use of these devices may cause serious injuries or death.

Reason for Recall
Innova Medical Group is recalling its SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test. Labeling distributed with certain configurations of the test includes performance claims that did not accurately reflect the performance estimates observed during the clinical studies of the tests. The performance characteristics of the test have not been adequately established, presenting a risk of false results.
False-negative results may lead to delayed diagnosis or inappropriate treatment of SARS-CoV-2, which may cause patient harm including serious illness and death. False-negative results can also lead to further spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, including when presumed negative patients are grouped into cohorts in health care, long-term care, and other facilities based on false test results.
False-positive results could lead to a delay in the correct diagnosis and the initiation of an appropriate treatment for the actual cause of patient illness, which could be another life-threatening disease that is not SARS-CoV-2. False-positive results could also lead to further spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus when presumed positive patients are grouped into cohorts based on false test results.
Who May Be Affected
People who were tested using these devices
Health care providers who may have access to and use these tests or whose patients have used these tests
Organizers of large testing programs, such as on college campuses, who may be using and distributing these tests for diagnostic use
What to Do
On April 23, 2021, Innova Medical Group sent all affected device users an Urgent Medical Device Recall letter. The letter provided the following information:
Do not use these tests to screen for or diagnose COVID-19.
Identify and remove all affected tests from inventory.
Either destroy the tests by placing them in the trash or return the tests using the FedEx return label that was included with the letter Innova sent to its customers.
Complete and return the form Innova sent to its customers, indicating the number of destroyed or returned tests.

As the management indicated last in his LFT webinar, his current monthly maximum manufacturing capacity is 30mill, with an additional overseas manufacturing capacity of 30 mill.
With orders imminent U.K. and abroad and if we were to adopt an ultra conservative unit price and margins, we are still looking at earnings including Therapeutics milestone payments etc, which would easily exceed current broker target price of 285,which they have also pointed out, carries significant upside risk.
Let us see what happens in the very near future, in particular with government using LFT tests both being classified as tests no longer should be used or distributed for COVID-19 by the FDA and Innova had to write to all users and ask them to return the test kit, as it did not work. All stated on Innova letterhead paper.
It is also certainly worth looking into how and why the Innova order was signed up by the Government, being advised by the instigator of operation Moonshot.