Member Info for Hosai

Just to edit myself looking into it again they actually had similar debt in 2018 it increased the year after but you get the point.

As has been said before...they rejected £3.9 billion offers 3 and half years ago in 2018 when the business was significantly smaller and with more debt. This is what makes it hard to believe MM has not tried to buy this back now. Obviously the macro factors are worse now but not stark enough to make sense of these differences in valuation.

https://news.sky.com/story/the-hut-groups-value-hits-4bn-as-takeover-spree-continues-11488943

Any specific catalyst for Boohoo/Asos?

Fair points Ste, though worth pointing out they liquidated "most of their portfolio" from the fund that invested in THG but didn't sell any THG. https://www.ft.com/content/197c32a9-cfed-418c-9351-ec8eefe54328

RBC said in late Jan they "did not expect softbank to walk away". Market clearly isn't pricing that they will take up the option or even are still interested, it wouldn't seem to make sense to exercise the option but perhaps something else is being negotiated?
https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/rbc-capital-ups-rating-on-thg-to-outperform--9088704.html

Interesting Okehurst, the thinking about "best environment" in the "days, weeks ahead" comments at results from MM would hint more going private, but the comments so far from the chair about reviewing the strategy over the coming months seem to point more to remaining public.

Matt M gave a hint at taking THG private when it was 204p in the GQ interview in early Nov:

"... we do have other options in terms of I'm a big shareholder – more than half of the business is owned by me and a few people that I'm close with. So, you know, the share price only moves because of the balance of shares that might trade around. So I'll just… open mind.”

https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/thg-matt-moulding-interview

Do we think this was just an empty threat considering price is now £1.08 and they have not pulled the trigger? Will be interesting after the 10th with softbank and sofina theoretically able to assist in a buyout at a price under £5.96. Could this be why MM didn't tell us the PE offer amounts, to not have the price go up?
My hunch says he doesn't want to take it private, but I suppose I'm bored so just putting it out there. The comments from the chairman seem to point more to a long term still deciding perspective. It does seem strange to not tell us the PE offer amounts as you would think the share price would push up to nearer these amounts which I would imagine have to be a lot above where we are, especially as they said one of the parties made a second "indicative approach".

Maybe it's less of a thing in UK due to less billionaires but seems more common with US companies and isn't cheap - https://www.protocol.com/ceo-security-pandemic
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-silicon-valley-ceos-spend-on-security-and-protection-2019-5?r=US&IR=T#dara-khosrowshahi-596500-4

Anyone know how it works in terms of paying back their loan? I don't fully understand debt and interest in terms of accounting.
They have the 600 million euro loan (£513 million or so) loan to pay back by December 2026. Their annual interest payment is around £50 million which I guess is a bit of interest and the principal?
So I'm just wondering do they make a large one off payment near Dec 2026 or do the interest payments go up in future years as it seems a bit low at the moment? Cheers

Today is even more volatile than usual for THG

If you look at the predicted inflation chart from BOE it's predicted to fall just as hard in 2023 as it rose in the last 4 quarters.

Agreed Anacott...Ocado down 30.77% in a month.

I was wondering the same Okehurst...if Matt M was indeed waiting to buy with sofina and potentially softbank after May 10th they might be welcoming these macro falls.

Well if you time any stock right you can make money trading it. THG at-least has been more stagnant overall and actually gone up a bit in the last month as opposed to a lot of other UK growth stocks which are down recently.

How is this down but boohoo up 6.7%?

THG obv is unreliable but you can't ignore the wider UK growth market, in last month:
Boohoo down 26.27%
Asos down 21.5%
Just eat down 31.92%
deliveroo down 16.81%
THG up 13.34%

Arguably the bad results from boohoo and also slightly from asos and amazon show how well THG are doing. Obv some of THG's revenue growth for FY 2021 and predicted 2022 was/is from their 2021 acquisitions but boohoo and asos also had 2021 acquisitions.

Commonsense they actually had offers for £3.9 billion in Sept 2018 - https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/09/hut-group-rejected-3-9bn-takeover-bids-continues-aggressive-growth/

Anyone wonder if MM is waiting till 10th May for a buyout? That would be when softbank could also be involved in buying it and be able to to have a price at lower than £5.96. Until the 10th May if soft-bank are involved in a buyout the price would have to be £5.96 according to the takeover rule. If MM is planning in this big expansion you would think softbank still want to be involved.
T Rowe bought at £2 in November and Sofina bought at £1.90 then too so they wouldn't be able to buy it for under this either realistically.
Also as others have mentioned if other PE are making offers he would have to also match this.

Remember some of the parties "had put forward multiple approaches". Which I would say indicates more detail.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/thg-warns-cost-pressure-will-result-flat-earnings-this-year-2022-04-21/