Member Info for Hosai

Steve perhaps it makes sense to be paranoid. Numis self-reported themselves to the FCA after being caught out emailing a note about "accounting irregulaties" they had to then apologise for. The telegraph made up a story about suppliers which I also believe they had to apologize for or retract when THG challenged them.

Interesting Jmak, a similar ratio of revised offer would get us £3.60

B1inky there was no significant bid speculation at intra-day 70p beyond people thinking "it's so low surely PE will be interested" etc.
It had all gone quiet on that front but still slowly moved up from the 70s to 125 and back to 116 on its own. The proper bid pricing in happened from Thursday.

I believe it had recovered with no bid speculation to around 116p (after falling back from 125p) so why do you say it would go back to 70p with no bids? Especially with the separation due end of next month at the latest.
The fact you added "and stay there for years" even more strange. Inflation is 75% influenced by energy prices and is predicted to fall quite quickly next year (we've already seen this a little with whey prices falling) and this could start being priced in anytime.

Okehurst I prob sounded a bit harsh, just seems like Steve only posts when its down with a slight (I told you so) vibe as though people who are long never considered there would be bad days amongst the good.

Just caught up on all the posts from today...funny seeing Steve in Hull lead a kind of circle jerk between the "rational" posters around 8:30 and seemed to want the optimistic posters to kneel and kiss his ring. He has now gone more quiet again.

Okehurst I realize it's just business but I believe if Matt M wanted to re-list again in US etc he wouldn't want to be remembered negatively by the public markets which may have doubts on a re-listing about "what happened last time" i.e give the impression he fleeced IPO investors. Supposedly if they are now quietly buying up the float it wouldn't cost as much to buy out the float remainer at say £4.

Maybe too good to be true but perhaps if the theory was true that they are buying up the float so it's small enough that MM can offer a higher "face saving" amount perhaps they could offer £4-£5 and no-one would be fleeced?

Goldy I think most people know it would be a joke price at £2.50 or £3 billion considering they rejected £3.9 billion when on £736 million a year revenue and had £186 million cash (as we all know they now make £2.2 billion revenue and have £530 million cash).
It would be a ridiculous price at £2.50 or even £3.50 however on the plus side it would be quick money you could then re-invest in the other beaten down stocks.

How many shares do retail own, around 150 million? That is still quite a lot for them to buy, you would think in terms of the theory of Candy etc buying them up now then making the offer for the float with major holders folding over they would have got slightly more than a million as a first buy.

The Sunday Times piece said this - "The flurry of announcements was prompted by the Takeover Panel, which had asked the various companies to clarify their positions after financial blog Betaville published rumours of deal activity."

Not sure how that can be MM "bluffing" if the disclosure was prompted by the takeover panel.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2bn-thg-bid-battle-tests-matt-mouldings-resolve-lwk9th69j

IMO from a PE/buyout point of view even a couple of months could be too long to wait. In a couple of months it will be late July, by then the macro reversal might have started (as investors start pricing in the expected relatively quick falls in inflation next year).

Even if going private never happened, the separation was/is due to complete in Q2 meaning at the very latest in about 5-6 weeks but could obviously be announced any time, so there are catalysts whatever happens.

I said his name 5 times in the mirror just before that RNS, hopefully the fca don't contact me

Steve could you take a break from the "I'm the cynical, rational one". You seem to only pipe up when the sp drops, anyone influenced by you would have sold in the 90s.

It depends how many of the current main holders he convinces to be part of a buyout. If he doesn't have enough to force a buyout then the price would have to be at-least £4 because none are going to sell for less than that considering other buyouts going at 3-5x revenue.

People are talking like the scepticism around the bids wasn't priced in on Friday, it would have gone to 170p or more on Fri if the market didn't view them this way at the moment.

Financial times seemed to hint that THG put the Belerion bid out without permission or something, whereas Sunday Times says it was prompted by the takeover panel who asked the various parties to clarify their positions after speculation by betaville.

p2

"As THG’s problems piled up, private equity giants Advent International, Apollo and Leonard Green all ran the rule over the business. Belerion Capital cannot compete with that sort of clout — but McDonald enjoys a personal relationship with Moulding that other potential suitors do not.

McDonald is a well-connected figure in the e-commerce industry who spearheads the UK Digital Business Association, a trade body including Ocado and Asos, which is pushing back against the creation of an online sales tax.

In his time as chief investment officer at William Currie Group, McDonald led the firm’s investment in THG in the company’s first big funding round in 2010. He has served as a non-executive director on the board ever since and personally owns 2.51 million THG shares, currently worth £3.64 million.

“Iain has been ever-present and is on very good terms with Matt. He knows THG as well as anyone,” a source said. Spokespeople for Belerion and THG both declined to say whether McDonald had recused himself or been stood down from the board of THG.

McDonald is understood to have been dumbfounded by the collapse in THG’s share price — but acquiring the business would be a deal of far greater magnitude than anything he or Belerion have previously undertaken.

Belerion runs a fund that invests in listed e-commerce companies as well as a private fund targeting start-ups in the sector. The investment fund, which owns 4.3 million shares in THG, is advised by Asos co-founder Nick Robertson.

THG’s decision to reject Belerion and King Street’s offer — pitched at a 79 per cent premium to THG’s share price before it originally disclosed it had received numerous takeover approaches in April — may divide THG’s shareholders, some of whom bought in after the slump in its shares. There may not be a better time to sell in the coming months, either. A brutal squeeze on disposable incomes, soaring costs and a swing of trade back towards high street shops have combined to hammer online retailers.

THG warned in April that underlying profits this year would be similar to last year’s £161.3 million, compared with forecasts for £206 million.

City sources are sceptical that Candy’s interest will progress into a full offer. The developer behind London’s One Hyde Park has in the past been linked with a takeover of Covent Garden-owner Capital & Counties and, more recently, Chelsea Football Club — only for neither to materialise.

After jumping by 24.5 per cent on Friday, THG’s shares closed at £1.45 — a 14.7 per cent discount to Belerion and King Street’s bid, implying the market is sceptical that a deal will be done at all. Moudling, ultimately, will have the final say."

Mostly a nothing article but will post here anyway:

"A sales person at investment bank Numis fired off an incendiary email to clients last November. The message urged investors to sell shares in the troubled online beauty retailer THG, citing alleged “accounting irregularities”.

It is fair to assume the author failed to check the recipient list before hitting “send”. If they had done, they would have seen the name Iain McDonald, a board director at THG for 12 years.

Unsurprisingly, McDonald took umbrage at the email. Numis subsequently sent a corrected version, apologised and reported itself to the Financial Conduct Authority.

McDonald has had a front-row seat for this corporate soap opera. Now, after a torrid 20 months on the stock market, Belerion Capital, where McDonald is chief investment officer, has teamed up with King Street Capital to table a £2 billion bid to take the firm formerly known as The Hut Group private. Morgan Stanley is lined up for debt financing.

On Thursday evening, THG — which owns brands such as Myprotein, Lookfantastic and Cult Beauty — disclosed it had rejected the “highly preliminary” 170p-per-share offer. This came 15 minutes after Candy Ventures, investment vehicle of property tycoon Nick Candy, issued a separate statement saying it was in the “very early stages” of mulling its own offer for THG.

The flurry of announcements was prompted by the Takeover Panel, which had asked the various companies to clarify their positions after financial blog Betaville published rumours of deal activity.

Whether the interest in THG progresses will depend ultimately on co-founder and boss Matt Moulding, who holds a golden share giving him the right to veto any hostile takeover.

Moulding has done little to hide his disdain for life on the public markets: in an interview with GQ magazine last year, he said the experience of being listed “just sucked from start to finish”. The question is whether he is fed up enough to swallow his pride by endorsing a bid that will inevitably value THG at a fraction of the £5.4 billion achieved at its float in September 2020.

THG’s shares initially soared after listing, taking its value above £7.25 billion and triggering a controversial £830 million share-based payout for Moulding, the largest shareholder with a 22 per cent stake. But they crashed back down to earth amid mounting concerns over THG’s light-touch corporate governance, its weak cashflow, and whether Ingenuity, the e-commerce platform that THG sells to other online retailers, could ever meet lofty expectations.

In an effort to appease the City, Moulding brought in Lord (Charles) Allen as chairman and pledged to relinquish his golden share — which he has yet to do."