Member Info for Hosai

Agree SP though don't really see the benefit of selling beauty (or anything) in this environment, unless they were going to immediately re-invest the proceeds in other acquisitions with assets cheaper atm.

Ocado saying they will be cash-flow positive in 4-6 years.

Whereas Stephen Whitehead for THG said "We're expecting to be cash flow neutral next year at the free cash flow basis. Obviously, the operating cash flow, we should be very cash generative, but with all of the bits on top. So next year, we should be somewhere neutral with cash generation kicking in at the free cash flow level there afterwards."

Don't get how Ocado can have that £6.43 billion market cap versus THG £913 million with Ocado having less expected revenue growth and lower Ebitda (£92 million) this year plus a negative credit rating from Fitch.

Maybe we need BoE to raise rates more aggressively than 0.25. US raised by 0.75 recently and growth stocks there seem to be doing well today, Tesla up 10%. Get the raise in rates out the way, market hates having it ahead of us.

Just to be pedantic according to the RNS on 15th June there are 1,246,085,860 shares.

Maybe volume from US being open again will help today

Wonder if THG would consider a small share buyback like Darktrace did. It was authorized in general as one of the questions at AGM. Their cash position hasn't changed in 6 months so it doesn't seem to be a huge problem for them?

I sort of agree Ste though it does show the major shareholders and Moulding appear to be bullish considering they have shut down a bid from Candy that was likely to be atleast £2 I believe. However it is a shame they have not shared much with us. The IR seems to swing from too little info to what I see as too much info in regards to that reply to Anacott which should surely require a public announcement.
I do wonder if despite the major holders being bullish enough to not be interested in talks about £2 whether they have been taken aback and re-assessing due it now falling to 75p? Or are they in-fact "part of this fall" and still bullish and just making a little short term money shorting etc.
Hard to fathom how Sofina could have bought at 596p a year ago but not be loading up massively down here.

Ocado had similar revenue and losses to THG but is predicting only 10% revenue growth for 2022 (THG 22-25%) plus expecting £92 million Ebitda (THG £161.3 million). Ocado also now have a worse credit rating.
Yet with Ocado market cap still over £6 billion they are able to raise this $1 billion for further expansion without huge dilution, partly because they haven't been hammered in the press as much as THG. It's alright for some! Also goes to show how the press can have a legitimate impact on how much a company can grow.

I'm surprised IR gave so much detail in that reply, isn't that the kind of thing that should have been an official public statement? Seems like people have been waiting for 6-9 months for more clarity on what separation will mean and when yet this email from IR seems to Anacott seems to be telling us!

"This is not the case with THG. It's running out of cash very fast, and its balancesheet looks to be full of problems."
How is it full of problems? I would say it's a fairly average balance sheet? The debt doesn't mature until December 2026.

Also in terms of cash these were the last 3 updates:

Q3 - 2021 = available cash as at 30 September 2021 of c. £700m including long dated 3-5 year facilities.
Q4 - 2021 = Total cash of over £530m at year end plus an undrawn facility of £170m, on long dated 3-5 year terms.
Q1 - 2022 - cash of over £530m and a £170m undrawn revolving credit facility.

Therefore I can't see how they are "running out of cash very fast".

Musclehead that's true on the margin and debt difference - the debt is a key reason Fever tree makes a small profit despite having 40% of THG's ebitda. THGs debt isn't that bad it's more fevertree are unusual to have no debt.
THG also had lots of cash. The "buying sales" point you made is irrelevant as THGs organic revenue growth % is higher than Fevertrees and considering THG have around 7.5 times Fevertrees revenue that future growth for THG is an awful lot bigger in absolute terms.
A few of the points you made are fair but is unrealistic to suggest the starkness of the difference in valuation between the two makes sense. Fevertree market cap currently 88.6% higher.

You can see from Fever tree drinks how much UK investors rate profit over growth.

Fever-tree
2021 revenue = £311 million
Predicted 2022 revenue = £355 - £365 million (around 15.7% growth)
Predicted 2022 Ebitda = £63 - £66 million
Market cap = £1.72 billion

THG
2021 revenue = £2.18 billion
Predicted 2022 revenue = £2.66 - £2.72 billion (22-25% growth - prob around 18-19% organic)
Predicted 2022 Ebitda = £161.3 million
Market cap = £912 million

I calculated organic to be around 18-19% for 2020 and 21 based on how much revenue each acquisition was predicted to add for 2020 and 2021. Therefore not as impressive once you strip out acqusitions but clearly not a case of simply "buying sales".
I don't really get why UK investors rate companies that make a profit but have very low or no growth as having done better.

The official offer was for all of the share capital i.e for MM to sell, yet an article seemed to say MM didn't like the offers because of high debt which indicates people buying with him rather than from him.
The press seems to have slightly ignored this narrative though?
Just surprised there hasn't been more comments about this in the press as objections based on debt rather than price if it's true would indicate MM is open to going private which would seem more worthy of comment.

Very much doubt Lord Allen would have joined had it been option 2.

Agree Anactcott though btw as far as I can see current mc is £945 million? RNS on 15th June said there were 1,246,085,860 shares, and current sp of 75.86p.

The way I see it, the third incoming offer from Candy (at-least according to the times) was actually going to be quite well backed and seemingly more legit than most believed and surely at-least £2, as it was at "a significant premium".

THG rejected this, or at-least shut it down after talking with the major shareholders -

"after consulting with THG's major shareholders and taking advice from the Company's advisors, the Board has not considered it appropriate to provide due diligence access to any of these parties."

To me it seems pretty bullish that the big holders were not interested in selling for £2 (at-least bullish relative to where we are today). Question is were they taken aback by the fall back to 75p? But I suppose even in that situation they could encourage bids to come on the table again if they lost faith with the sp and manipulation which would mean sp going up from here in either scenario.

I agree Paddy, just the soft-bank raise a year ago brought THG around £745 million. Current market cap is £945 million, only £200 million more.
So whole of THG from 13 months back in May before the soft-bank raise arguably valued at £200 million.

It does like bears here sometimes backward compliment THG by mistake...I've seen a lot of comments "I just don't see how they can make the annual growth they are predicting within the current environment".

GG you said this a week ago - "You don’t honestly think Murphy leaving with immediate effect, is purely coincidence either. This will probably be extended and we probably hear next month what the final bids are and who from."