Member Info for Hosai

Oil and a lot of commodities down quite heavily today. Admittedly some of it is likely due to China lockdowns but perhaps it is also simply that inflation is running out of stream? Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia this week hoping to boost oil supply. Don't think recent falls will show up in the inflation figures until next month however.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Pretty sure it's him running the account. There are lots of photos of his family plus he will sometimes have "stories" (short vids) that are clearly filmed from his phone such as at the diamond jubilee ceremony.

It's funny Anacott I was about to make the same post...pretty sure Matt M will see it coz he often "likes" a lot of the comments.
Also saw the well-informed poster previously on here DanL in the comments.

Not really material to anything but Matt M posted this earlier - https://www.instagram.com/p/Cf6LN7rrVqT/?hl=en

Interesting however they say THG "is debt free" when it is not which is a bid odd.

Does anyone find it tiresome the type of comments often underneath newspaper articles that question "will THG ever make a profit" etc.
To me it seems fairly obvious that once profit over growth becomes THGs focus that they can make good stable profits from Beauty/nutrition (that's ignoring what ever happens with ingenuity). It would seem a bit bizarre if there was something about online beauty/nutrition retailing that meant a profit can't be made from this type of business. Yet the company is somehow portrayed as high risk in terms of future revenues/profits.
It seems when the potential high rewards/exciting elements of THG are discussed the bears point out that ingenuity commerce revenues are small. Yet when the risks of THG are discussed, bears focus on ingenuity commerce uncertainty, (despite just saying ingenuity commerce revenues are small) and ignore the stability of the larger beauty/nutrition revenue and cash flow streams, which will surely turn a profit essentially whenever THG wants to cut back on high growth (no matter what happens with ingenuity commerce).
To me online Beauty/nutrition is a very safe area to be invested in for the future. Ingenuity commerce potential is just a bonus currently thrown in for free. Bears can't even say "governance" anymore with the heavyweight Lord Allen in place and buying a million shares.

Goldy obviously they have different type of revenue but are you really saying it's right for Ocado to be at £7 billion and THG at £1 billion just because Ocado has more fixed revenues?
This would be despite this year THG having more revenue growth, better bottom line figures, a better credit rating and a significantly shorter predicted wait than Ocado to become cash flow positive.

Press seems to have it in slightly more for THG than Ocado. Ocado has a £7 billion mc compared to THG £1 billion.

Ocado has slightly higher revenue at £2.5 billion, (THG = £2.18 billion) but has less expected revenue growth for 2022 at 10%, (for THG = 22-25%) and predicting lower Ebitda at £92 million, (THG = £161 million) plus Ocado have a negative credit rating from Fitch. Ocado are also expecting to be cash flow positive in 4-6 years whereas for THG it's 1-2 years.
I know Ocado recently raised £575 million but that's not enough to explain such a disparity.

Well Ingenuity also took some from other platforms

Here are the top stores that have switched to THG Ingenuity from competitive ecommerce platforms:
.
Plenaire
www.plenaire.co
258,438
Shopify
2022/05/03

Gearbox Loot US
www.gearboxloot.com
297,535
Shopify
2022/05/01

ACO Skincare
acoskincare.de
513,377
Shopify
2022/06/30

eu.frankbody.com
eu.frankbody.com
3,543,129
Shopify
2022/05/19

bwellup.com
bwellup.com
6,248,447
Custom Cart
2022/06/23

Remember Barclays in September? - "Analysts at Barclays have estimated THG Beauty could be worth about £4 billion but they warned that valuing the business is difficult “without disclosure of standalone margins.”

https://northernfinancialreview.com/2021/09/16/thg-confirms-beauty-spinoff-h1-revenue-tops-958m/

Ste at-least they raised the $1.05 billion before the wider sell off. Also I suppose if they had completed the softbank ingenuity investment the share price would never have got to these lower prices to buy so it's more something investors from pre-Sept 2021 would be annoyed by rather than the bulk of people here who got in during or after the huge sell off.
I don't really see not accepting the PE offers as being costly other than for investors who needed quick money. As that Citi note and others indicate, THG were correct to view £1.70 as significantly undervaluing the company.

Looks like it's now lowest since September? (at-least in Netherlands)
https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=siero_olanda

Oil price down again today

You seem to think I attacked you at some point Goldy...I haven't (check my history if you don't believe me). I was sceptical of you at first though as you came across as one of the bears who pretends to be an investor then slowly de-ramps (see Rock8). However now I believe you do have a small position.
I also believe Steve is invested but he does have a strange habit of only posting when the share price drops.

When you read notes like this you realize no-one is selling based on the company, they are just selling because they know the share price is jinxed/cursed and have lost faith in it.

Thanks Xavik

"Applying peer group multiples and conservatively overlaying a 30% discount, we derive a SOTP-based target price
of 220p (c. 200% upside, vs 250p before), representing 1.2x FY23E EV/Sales."

So their 220p target was after a 30% discount...

The short term part of me would like private though I do think long term it could extremely well. The point going against private however is what is the benefit of them going private and waiting for wider market to recover versus just staying listed and waiting for the wider market to recover?

It was Holy1 who did it. This was the full list:

RNS confirmed holdings up to the 16th June - Total 77.5%

INVESTOR %
Matt Moulding 22.2%
Sofina 9.46%
Balderton 7.94%
Jupiter Fund Management 7.81%
Softbank 6.6%
T Rowe 3.06%
Vanguard Group 2.53%
Qatar Investment 2.24%
Barclays 1.9%
Norges Bank 1.72%
Richard Griffiths 1.72%
GIC Private LTD 1.55%
West Coast Capital 1.41%
Sir T Leahy 1.32%
Blackrock 1.22%
Dominic Murphy 1.09%
Ophorst Van Marwijk Kooy 1.05%
Maybank 0.85%
John Gallemore 0.82%
Iain McDonald 0.59%
Kings Street/Belerion 0.25%
Candy Ventures 0.08%
Jeffries 0.08%
Charles Butler 0.04%
Zillah Byng-Thorne 0.01%
Bank of America 0.006%
TOTAL 77.5%

Hard to see what the bear thesis for the sp being down here is. "The analyst" did a bear thesis mostly around ingenuity in their opinion being overvalued, but they said "it could go as low as £2.60". They later withdrew the short recommendation when it was around £2.00 saying it was hard to see any downside and that the Beauty and nutrition divisions "were sound".
It does feel like MM didn't want to go private late 2021 when he seemed more angry, however into 2022 it seemed like he stopped fighting for the sp, which could indicate going private unless it was just Lord Allen advising him not to speak out anymore.

Thewholetruth THG's cash balance and access to liquidity has been unchanged the last 3 updates. Also they plan to be cashflow neutral by next year. Contrast with Ocado who plan to be cash-flow positive in 4-6 years and have a market cap of £6.5 billion.