Member Info for Hosai

I've been carrying out extensive company research by checking out the photos of this US my protein influencer - https://www.instagram.com/pineapplebrat/?hl=en

Sentiment is so bad with UK growth stocks...always ignore US gains but still fall with US.

Such a steep drop, no way that was in the THG forecasts in April. Could potentially see a better margin than predicted in Sept, though obv the falls from this month won't be in results.

Qatar Investment own 2.24%, pretty sure they must be swimming in money at the moment too with the price of oil.

Think the City just hates Moulding...no much one can do other than hope they eventually get bored or he takes it private.

Remember the good old days of the analyst? - "The document, dated October 1, forecasts THG shares could reach a low of £2.60 over the next two years as the City wakes up to the group's limitations."
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10075989/Shun-overhyped-shares-Hut-warns-investing-guru.html

What's funny is at the time a lot of the bears kept saying how respected the Analyst were for sounding the alarm over wirecard. But everyone seemed to forget about the analyst when they withdrew the short recommendation at around £1.90 "The firm told its clients it was difficult to see further downside and that THG's core beauty and nutrition businesses appeared sound."

Funny how the times reported the Stephen Whitehead sell in January but have been completely silent on the chairman and CEO buy.

Thanks Xavik...I liked this bit - "We reinstate at Buy with a 120p PT or 2023 EV/EBITDA of 8.6x (our prior 250p
was SOTP based, with market conditions, especially pricing of M&A, impairing the
relevance of this approach)."
Seemed like they are saying "it would have been higher sp target based on sum of the parts but that's unrealistic when M&A is unlikely to happen at the moment"?

Surely not closely associated just means hasn't gifted them to his wife or children etc. But could be his best friends?
Why does it even put in there "however it isn't illegal". Doubt anyone was wondering whether it was illegal to buy something for someone as a gift?

Wigan HMRC would only be involved if Matt Moulding died in the next 7 years as that would impact his inheritance tax due to not having full tapered relief on this gift yet otherwise there aren't any tax implications for anyone involved until the shares are one day sold as no loss/gain has been made yet, eventually the recipients will likely pay some capitals gains tax. Not sure why this is relevant anyway.

Unless he hates his friends its unlikely he would buying them shares if he believed they were going to go down.

Next THG acquisition - the Coogee Bay Hotel? Just kidding

Could easily fall back today coz it's THG sp but bodes well for the weeks ahead.

MM and Lord Allen already taken 2 million odd off the float.

Some of the bears were saying "the chair might not have operational knowledge", harder to explain away the CEO buying. Did he wait for softbank public announcement?

It does seem odd that you have someone like Sofina, who buys at 596p in May 2021. Now we are in a world with higher inflation but at the same time the company is a year ahead from then in revenue generation etc.
How can Sofina not be snapping all these shares up at 66p?

I thought I'd look at their year end cash/debt over the years:

FY14: Cash = £54.5 million. Debt = £60.1 million
FY15: Cash = £141.5 million. Debt = £175.1 million
FY16: Cash = £174.2 million. Debt = £300 million
FY17: Cash = £186.7 million. Debt = £397.4 million
FY18: Cash = £234.8 million. Debt = £520.4 million (this year they rejected £3.9 billion offer).
FY19: Cash = £312.23 million. Debt = £602.56 million
FY20: Cash = £773.58 million. Debt = £524.28 million
FY21: Cash = £536.8 million. Debt = £489.1 million

Obviously you can see the debt increase as they can grow but you can also see that other than last year this is the most comfortable position they've ever been in (at-least ignoring the macro situation).

What's the point in them selling the non-core assets? You keep talking like they're desperate for cash, £537 million plus access to £170m more.

The FT article mentioned small acquisitions but they could do a decent small share buyback here if they viewed THG as more undervalued than any other companies they could buy. Would be a small way to reward currently pained shareholders.

They are predicting to be cash-flow neutral next year even with the capex. What would you want them to do with extra cash next year?