Member Info for Hosai

It was the same in the build up to results in April it was assumed due to the price drops and sp languishing something bad was going to come out but in the end the April results/report were fairly good. The sp actually rose quite a big afterwards and then the takeover saga started with betaville which obviously ended badly for sp.
My point being I don't think you get that much information from the sp movements.

I believe it was established from one of the calls that western Europe sweet whey was the one to track. It's basically tanked since April when the last update was. I would imagine margin will at the least hold or could be upgraded.
https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=whey

It would be good if they could re-iterate on when they will be cash-flow positive and profitable even if it's planned to be years away still. They did say at last update cash-flow neutral by next year but would be good to get that in writing.
Ocado announced they would be cash-flow positive in 4-6 years, have similar revenue but lower predicted revenue growth and EBITDA than THG but have a market cap of over £6 billion.
Perhaps the market like being given a timeline even if its a long way off whereas with THG there isn't much talk about the vision for the next 2-4 years etc.

Thought it was a fairly poor article as usual. They don't mention that since IPO MM hasn't sold and has in-fact bought more. The THG bits are here:

FLOATS
One of the first out the gate was Matt Moulding, who enlisted no fewer than eight banks to convince the City of the virtues of his online health and beauty retailer THG. It worked: after floating in September 2020 at a valuation of £5.4 billion, THG’s shares bubbled in frothy markets, growing to £7.25 billion within weeks and triggering an £830 million shares bonus for the buff beauty tycoon.

After a brutal sell-off driven by concerns over inadequate corporate governance and weak cashflow, Moulding’s bonus is worth a mere £83 million. Still, Moulding did at least manage to sell £54 million of shares at the float to help fund a deal that transferred THG’s property into his ownership.

INVESTORS
Asset management giant BlackRock, and some affiliated funds, got swept up in the hype around THG, ploughing £300 million of client money into Moulding’s governance-light empire at 500p a share. BlackRock dumped nearly half its stake at 195p a share last November.

“If fund managers have a couple of dodgy quarters, investors start to pull their money. That creates pressure and a temptation to just run with whatever is working now. In some cases, fear of missing out took over,” said Russ Mould, investment director at broker AJ Bell.

BANKERS
THG’s bumper float proved the most lucrative. Eight banks, led by Citigroup, JP Morgan, Barclays and Goldman Sachs, shared £38.4 million in fees.

Stockbroker Numis managed to get a slice of no less than four of the biggest flops, including THG and Deliveroo.

Interesting random sentence in times article - "The newly floated Nanopore cannot be held by many mainstream investors because it opted for a standard listing, not a premium one, which it could not have because it wanted a three-year shield against takeover."

Sounds just like the problem THG sp is having.

Market had 2 hours to price in the news on Fri yet you think it will fall a further 50% tomorrow?

Sham you previously bought in after the 2nd rns, now you start a thread titled "It is prudent to invest after audited results".

If they did need to raise cash why is it assumed it would have to be from equity rather than debt? Obv not ideal and prob not on good terms in terms of interest rate in the current situation but don't see why a loan wouldn't be an option?

NMC was FTSE 100 but it was also headquartered in Abu Dhabi which some may argue made it more risky.

HeresHopin I am now down a similar amount here though had a small good trade today..with this and THG I would say you and me are cursed.

Obviously it's not a strong analysis but I find it hard to see Adam Minto as a fraud? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huRM1IlK5ig&t=504s
There are no sure things in life but it seems like lots of people (mostly women) know of or buy from revolution B. Find it hard to believe they could be a fraud or let themselves run out of cash. I bought some at 24p and another batch now, hoping for the best.

Commodities are down fairly heavy today...though unfortunately more due to demand fears than supply increases. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Depends which aspects of THG Jmak, I wouldn't describe their operations as beleaguered. It's more the case that costs will be slightly higher this year.

I agree Anacott,
I don't get what they mean by "trade out of trouble"...what trouble is the company itself (rather than sp) actually in? In terms of year end cash/debt position this is the second most comfortable they've ever been in their history. Plus in terms of macro whey priceshave fallen back significantly.
However you see this kind of comment about trouble and "beleaguered" etc all the time, especially the times comments which are relentlessly negative, though I think a lot are retail shorts.

Times article ends with this:
"So might the absence of other bidders tempt Moulding to launch his own take-private deal? “You would assume that [a take-private deal] is probably the way it would go. That’s what most people think,” one City source said.
Others, with an eye on present turbulent markets, are less convinced it will happen. “He will have to try to trade his way out of trouble,” one analyst said."

Sp action is very strange. Surely if in the city "most people think" MM will take it private the sp should be higher? He couldn't buy it for less than £1.70 after rejecting that for significantly undervaluing THG.

Mostly summarizes things everyone knows but will post a few of the "fresher" bits.

Title - Matt Moulding mulls next move after THG float runs into series of storms

Those who know Moulding, who turned 50 this year, say he is a typical entrepreneur: single-minded, stubborn and, at times, complicated. “He’s a smart guy who works bloody hard,” someone who used to work with him said. “He lives and breathes [THG], but it’s very much his business.” Indeed, Moulding seemed to take the share price slide personally, confiding in that GQ interview that “it’s like having your homework marked every single day”.

Moulding and his team dismissed the approaches, which would have valued the group at about £2 billion. So “unacceptable” were they at this valuation that THG did not even bother to give either suitor a look into its accounts. Both Belerion and Candy ended up walking away without tabling a formal bid.
At about the same time came the sudden departure of Dominic Murphy, a highly regarded non-executive who was at KKR when the American private equity firm took a 20 per cent stake in THG back in 2014. His exit is said to have renewed concerns among some investors about THG’s corporate governance.

So might the absence of other bidders tempt Moulding to launch his own take-private deal? “You would assume that [a take-private deal] is probably the way it would go. That’s what most people think,” one City source said.
Others, with an eye on present turbulent markets, are less convinced it will happen. “He will have to try to trade his way out of trouble,” one analyst said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/matt-moulding-mulls-next-move-after-thg-float-runs-into-series-of-storms-c030hqq5m

How can you know premium listing didn't help ASOS sp? The intention was announced around early Jan and it happened on Feb 22nd. This was a terrible period for growth stocks as we know probably more than most. Obviously the sp was never going to increase on the actual day it happened because it was priced in at that point.

You can't take Barclays seriously...they said THG beauty was worth around £4 billion 10 months ago in September. Now because of inflation they think the whole of THG is worth around £1.25 billion? (£1).

Stangled think you've got the market cap too high...I believe the google one currently around £883 million is correct, so even less for a buyout than your calculation.

THG consulted with the major holders before rejecting £1.70 and the likely higher potential bids. Surely at some point these holders are going to get twitchy if it stays at 67p too much longer unless they feel quite sure about whatever THG future was discussed with Moulding.