Member Info for Hosai

"He is a billionaire what does he care really?"
He's not a billionaire anymore, most of his money is in his THG shares.

I still believe in the medium term guidance of reverting back to 9% EBITDA. That's what they've managed most years, that's surely a better signal than this one year where all retail is suffering? This will especially be helped by the increased automation such as in the New Jersey site.
Even if at the worst ingenuity commerce goes no-where and there was no more revenue growth and it just flat-lined at around £2.5 billion a year (obviously very unlikely to be that bad) they would still be pulling in £225 million a year EBITDA at this margin.

Tbf MM already owns a huge amount of shares and did technically buy fairly recently even if it was given to friends.

It's funny coz RBC actually used a cash-flow model before back in late Jan but saw ingenuity completely differently:

""We project that Ingenuity Commerce could increase tenfold to £0.5bn of revenue in five years, with at an EBITDA margin of around 60%, drives our discounted cashflow valuation for the segment of £4.4bn. Yet the market is attributing no value at all."

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/rbc-capital-ups-rating-on-thg-to-outperform--9088704.html

Ste you could make most of those same points about Ocado (other than Moulding being a twat)...falling revenue this year, likely finishing with less revenue than us, breaking even at EBITDA, 4-6 years to get to cash flow positive but market allows them a £4 billion market cap compared to our £462 million.

Thanks 1pencil, THG has had pretty much zero credit from the markets and journalists for its ESG efforts. Probably something that would be noticed more when we are eventually back in a bull market.

New THG post - https://www.instagram.com/p/CjDipLKsFB0/?hl=en

HeresHopin as chair.

If Boohoo squeeze slowly moves us up can't complain.

Boohoo and Ocado predicting their revenues to fall this year shows THG's 10-15% predicted growth isn't so bad in the macro context (admittedly if you take out THG acquisitions their revenue growth would probably be fairly flat).

I guess it's to keep the more expensive tech employees, especially for ingenuity. It's just a shame we are not seeing this bear fruit. Need some of those "Whale" clients, but feels unlikely this year.

Boo doing it's own thing...ASOS still down 6.8%

It's not whey prices that data is just for France and came in on Saturday and its Weds.
In Netherlands is down https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=siero_olanda

I agree Ste, Cult was probably their worst buy. It's harder to judge whether the capex was good or bad as of yet.
Even cult though was just over 2x revenues which at the time wasn't so frothy.

Around £1.5 billion spent on acquisitions and capex just in the last 3 years...current market cap = £450 million.

Stock market this year and especially THG as been a nightmare for me. On the other hand though, I have to wonder is this the point you look back on the chart in 3 years and think "why wasn't everyone buying here?".

I'd be willing to let the 40p go if we can get £27...hopefully these are the kind of figures MM is throwing around with PE currently lol.

Well we secured the 40p part today just need the £27.

I just calculated how different my portfolio would look if I'd bought this instead of THG back in early Nov 2021. I'm gonna go sit in a dark room now.

Having said that at this point it's hard to not feel THG is the better one to be in for the coming years.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rising-oil-and-gas-prices-fuel-8-700-profit-surge-at-serica-energy-hww7d7xxk

These profits rather go against the idea that they needed to put their prices this high... I guess otherwise they may have only made an 8,600% increase?