Member Info for Hosai

Maybe the ingenuity conference last week went better than expected?

If one of the largest shareholders is also one of the biggest creditors that surely is some protection against any fear of creditors calling in loans?
Also net debt was said to be unaffected and was not mentioned as an issue looked at in the main latest rns which again would make some kind of emergency rights issue less likely.

Same rating as £3.76 billion valued Ocado

"THG's IDR is positioned at the same level as Ocado Group Plc's ('B+'/Negative) despite THG's stronger financial metrics. This is due to Ocado's strong positions as an international technology and business services provider with a significant proportion of long-term contracted earnings. In our view, there is a greater exposure to pure online retail channel, including greater inventory risk, at THG."

Kwasi to be CFO?

I believe Truss will go too...Sunak would be a relief to the markets.

He's described as an "industry heavyweight", hard to see the incentive to take on even a temp position leading a company if he suspected sinister dealings.
https://premierconstructionnews.com/2022/04/27/industry-heavyweight-bob-holt-obe-joins-cosgrove-drew-as-chairman/

"Thanks for the examples, because there are few out there."

Think you place too much faith in shorts knowbody, they get it wrong as often as longs do. There's a myth that they are better because it gets well publicized when a company folds and it stands out in peoples minds the company shorting it. However all the times they get it wrong are mostly ignored other than when it goes badly wrong such as with gamestop type situation.

Hopefully with the large currently under-utlized capacity MM has mentioned, Ingenuity can grow in a future bull market each year with relatively low new investment.

I didn't see it. It seemed slightly concerning that it happened around the time of share price fall on monday but maybe is unrelated. Perhaps was going well but MM took his shirt off towards the end?

Post seems to have been removed

The calendars seem to be very sought after, almost guaranteed income each Autumn. Only negative would be if they are so generous in terms of the product bundle that these customers buy less other products due to getting a lot with the calendar.

MM has grown this company since 2008, it's basically his lifes work. The idea he would sell it someone else just because of a bad macro year is laughable when he relatively recently held shares at 600 - 800p for a year without selling any.
Obviously him taking it private is a possibility but he can't really do it for less than the rejected offer of £1.70 surely.
Even if its' true as some claim that none of the offers were legit, he can hardly say "ah yeah but those weren't real/proper bids".

It seems the market is not comfortable with THG still spending relatively heavy on capex. Ultimately though THG are only doing this because they can, helped a lot by the £780 million odd equity raise in May 2021.
Obviously if things started to look worrying they would pivot to being more conservative, they stress test everything. They have whole teams of accountants obviously and MM himself was an accountant and apparently he is also known for being risk adverse when it comes to debt etc.
I guess what I'm saying is they aren't the idiots some suggest when it comes to the finances and if they needed to change course they would but I doubt they would do it just for the share price because market doesn't like it at the moment.

MM has mentioned Ashley quite a lot...it almost makes me wonder if that's why he seems to not be particularly"fighting" for the sp anymore. Maybe he sees this as part of his/THG's story, to be looked back on in 5 years as to how he showed the city they were wrong with the turnaround similar to Ashley.

Don't understand why this board wasn't flooded with bears 1-2 years ago when the sp had remained around 600p for whole year post-ipo.

"WAKE UP, it's hated by the city fund managers and the CEO is a pathological liar which has been buying revenue growth through acquisitions"

Well all acquisitions add revenue growth. For FY 2021 if you strip out the revenue that the acquisitions were expected to add there was about 18-19% revenue growth on prior year so clearly there is organic growth.
However even in a very bad scenario where somehow growth flat-lined for years after this year at around £2.5 billion revenue a year, they would only need to return to their 9% Ebitda which they used to hit to regularly bring in £225 million Ebita each year. In this negative scenario it wouldn't even matter if Ingenuity commerce made no further growth and also flat-lined.

"and yet again it’s the small guys taking the hit"

Well not just the small guys...the large investors and MM have taken a huge hit.
Also it seems a bit early to say "emperors new clothes". Obviously results and forecasts have got worse each quarter for the last year but that's no different to most companies. The worsening forecasts hardly warrant a fall of this size.

https://www.retail-week.com/people/interview-matt-moulding-pandemic-year-was-time-to-prove-what-you-believe-in/7040700.article?authent=1

Sometimes it's nice to read these older interviews to remind how THG was viewed previously and hopefully will be again.

Only 50%? Lucky you.

Sort of agree Scott though think ppl might be putting too much focus on the price protection strategy, I'm not sure it has made that much difference in the current climate. Other companies such as Boohoo and Ocado are predicting either minimal or breaking even EBITDA and falling revenues.