Member Info for Hosai

I don't think you can dismiss the £1.70 rejected bid so easily. They said £1.70 "significantly undervalues the company" just 6 odd months ago.
Even if some believe they were somehow manufactured offers as some claim (which is still up in the air because some of the press indicate they were genuine) Moulding can hardly say "yeah but those weren't real/proper bids".

Only bad thing is I imagine the automation will only take out the lower paid staff rather than higher paid in terms of reducing costs. Hopefully they make sure the higher paid staff truly earn their salaries.

"Maybe not? Would be great to make it work but how do thg go from 108-112 commerce revenue guidance to now looking like circa 50-65?"
We do have to see it in the context of this year. Most of THGs peers have flat or falling revenue this year as-well as flat EBITDA, I doubt that means this will be the case forever.
I know golden pointed out shopify making a 20% gain in q3, but they got through $2.9 billion of cash in the 9 months of 2022 to get that q3 20% gain on $1 billion.

Notsofast even if that was true it wouldn't seem a very effective test for them to do. Anyone external buying would have been aware Matt M would be a fixture in any deal made. They can't buy it without him involved and some parties would not have liked that. If he had any interest in selling and no longer being involved he would have sold some of his holding in the 600 and 800s or sold when they had offers for £3.9 billion back in 2018.
Anyone taking over would be buying with Matt M not from him. They still would have to convince other holders who didn't want to go private to sell though, and these holders are unlikely to want to sell below 1x revenue considering many consider other takeovers at revenue multiples and 190p = 1x predicted 2022 revenue of £2.45 billion.

Golden it does seem slightly a moot point considering shopify are at a $43 billion market cap whereas THG is at £722 million. Also as others have said ingenuity commerce is valued at £0.
Also think you are placing too much in emphasis on one quarter. If THG are now targeting bigger clients then the growth will become more volatile quarter to quarter depending on wins or lack of.
As I said before as-well, shopifys cash has dropped $7.8 billion to $4.9 billion in 9 months i.e a drop of $2.9 billion. If that was us everyone would be saying we'd bought our 22% growth on one $1 billion. Obv THG has invested too but our spend is also across Beauty/Nutrition rather than just ingenuity commerce so it's not like for like spend.

I meant of 2022

Golden they made a $2.1 billion acquisition this year and spent $2.9 billion overall in the first 9 months of 2021. That's obviously going to help their growth metrics.

Total revenue was up 22% but monthly recurring revenue was up 8% in the quarter.
It's hard to compare in some ways because they are such a large company with a $40 billion odd market cap and they clearly invested a lot this year aiming for more growth. This sentence was slightly telling - "At September 30, 2022, Shopify had $4.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, compared with $7.8 billion at December 31, 2021. "

https://news.shopify.com/shopify-reports-third-quarter-2022-financial-results#

With my average around £2, with £2 being at a 70% discount to the £6.64 share price just over a year ago I'm willing to be "greedy" with this share.

Steve why do you always appear to be in a bad mood when the sp rises and an over-joyed one when one it falls? That's quite strange in a shareholder...

They may have a point to a degree but ultimately THG have met those kind of Q4 targets before. Q4 2020 was 34.7% of total 2020 revenue and Q4 2021 was 32.67% of total 2021 revenue.
To get to the midpoint estimate of £2.45 billion revenue for 2022 they would need Q4 to be 34.88% of total 2022 revenue (£1.5954 YTD) so not too different. 2021 was helped a little by Cult beauty acquisition in May 2021 which was expected to add £60 million odd revenue for the remaining 5 months of 2021 however 2020 had no meaningful acquisitions to help in q4 2020.
Also this year they likely have more inventory at the ready with the large cash payment made in stocking a new warehouse, I believe this was more working capital investment than prior years.

I was a bit surprised that there was no fine tuning of the range of 10-15% revenue increase prediction with that being quite a large spread with just over two months left but I guess it goes to show the higher volume and potential volatility of their peak season trading.
15% gets us just over £2.5 billion, 10% gets us £2.398 billion so an £100 million difference.

When i say "capped" I mean psychologically as people might not want to buy on a certain level of daily rise.

A great day but ASOS almost catching us! Wonder if THG is capped on its daily rise even with extra positive macro sentiment.

You must have missed the recent conference HH. The new ingenuity ceo talked for 2 hours about their large bet on fish fingers and bananas being the future with a move away from protein.

"From 2008 to May 2015, Lord Allen served as a Senior Advisor to Goldman Sachs, advising the firm’s private equity portfolio and banking business. He has been a non-executive director at Tesco Plc, Virgin Media Group, executive chairman of EMI Music and chairman of ISS AS and chairman of 2 Sisters Food Group. Throughout his career, Lord Allen has also held Chief Executive Officer positions at Compass Group PLC and ITV PLC.

Lord Allen was involved with the London Olympic and Paralympic Games – serving as Vice Chairman of the London 2012 bid and on the board of the London Organizing Committee for the Olympic and Paralympic Games. He is also chair of the Invictus Games. He was the Chief Advisor to the UK Home Office, providing advice and support to the Home Secretary and the Home Office Board on various matters. He sits on the House of Lords Select Committee for Industry and Regulators."

Considering even the bearish media describe Lord Allen as a "heavyweight" chair it would hard to believe he is incompetent.

I agree Okehurst, it is strange that the media don't mention these prices drops.
The key energy indicators are now flat from their prices a year ago, let alone from where they were in spring and summer 2022.
Metals and Industrials are significantly down from a year ago, food is the one still up though - especially dairy.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Big 15% fall today https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

"Natural gas futures linked to TTF, Europe's wholesale gas price, touched €100 per megawatt-hour on Monday, a new low since early June and about 70% down from the highs of August as fears over shortages in winter eased again. The weather in Europe is expected to remain milder than usual for this time of the year until the end of the month. At the same time, ample supplies of LNG allowed Europe's gas storage sites to get filled with Germany's stockpile rate reaching 96%. Also, last week, the European Union governments came together to back urgent measures to tackle the high cost of energy, including a price cap, on top of a plan to set up joint natural gas purchases."

Just to be clear this an older article from the time...just realized it might look I'm posting new news.