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Market cap is back to being about £25 million below the amount raised in the soft-bank equity raise. That's ignoring the IPO equity raise amount and the entire pre-IPO company.

Oakhurst I appreciate your replies but it just does seem very stark. I find it hard to fathom that Vivek and THG are pursuing something so fruitless with such a low margin, I don't believe they are as dumb as the media sometimes portray (MM was a former accountant) unless they have lost their minds. Equally why would WPP be investing in trying to emulate that?
They clearly must be expecting higher margins than that.

In terms of the 1% margin for ingenuity I just don't think it can be true going forward. Vivek comes across as a smart guy to me, I can't see him encouraging MM to keep plugging money into something that will give back 1%.
I'm reminded of the video where he says “People think they know about Ingenuity; I don’t believe they know half of it.”
Unless of-course after that sentence he said "it can actually generate a 1% margin" and that got cut, but I'm hopeful this isn't the case lol.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CjVn2DSDAde/?hl=en

If it's truly 1% and that's all it would ever be than it makes no sense. I know ppl criticize the management sometimes but they are not that crazy to keep pursuing that, I think they have to be seeing something more that can be gained there.

WPP are looking to invest in 'Every mile' from scratch to try and emulate ingenuity so there must be something to it people are seeing.

I don't believe the EBITA would be that bad Okehurst else they would have pulled back from it amongst the other pull backs and cost saving they are doing.

Lets all meet at the depressing cafe in the apprentice and discuss who should be fired from both THG and our messageboard.

I'm surprised how little the market cares about the ingenuity parts -

"THG Ingenuity gaining momentum following the pivot to focus on higher value and higher margin contracts, with further major contracts close to agreement".
"This strategy is now delivering tangible results with the Group confirming that it is in advanced discussions to provide long-term software solutions for several significant enterprise clients"
"During 2023, the Group expects to add over £1 billion incremental GMV to the Ingenuity platform."

I do wonder if they could have been a bit more positive with the future outlook if they'd wanted. Surely the outlook with the jobs cuts, whey price falls and new income from iceland has to be a bit better. The iceland deal still hasn't been officially updated to us and wasn't mentioned in this update.
They said 9% margin medium term but slightly unclear what is medium term.

As an LFC fan I like this post. Too bad my THG investment is currently mirroring their season.

I realize it's a slightly random comparison Golden I just figured you might have views on it as Ocado has a much more uncertain and longer route to becoming cash flow positive and has a worse credit rating so I would argue is more risky bet.
A lot of your posts seem to be arguing THG is fairly valued (unless I'm wrong?), often due to cash flow concerns so I assumed you would have quite strong opinions on Ocado being valued at over £6 billion considering you seem to focus on cash flow a lot. However you seem to be slightly reluctant to question Ocado compared to THG.

2022 was a bad year for many Londondan. Ocado, Boohoo and ASOS all had the same pattern of under-delivering each update. Was hard to predict the extent of inflation and also obv the Russian invasion.
Recently again they couldn't have predicted the delivery problems from Royal Mail strikes in December, ASOS reported the same thing and their UK sales were down 8%.

Don't want to bash other tickers but it does seem we are being disproportionately punished with ASOS reporting falling revenue and cashflow negative for 2023 and I've already mentioned Ocados results.

Lets hope it calms down and we can finish above 60p. Market ignoring the potential ingenuity catalysts imo. They're in advanced talks. Many didn't have much faith with Gallemore in charge of ingenuity but Vivek seems a different calibre. Announcements of large clients could lead to some big rises over the next few weeks/months and there will also be the slow macro rise due to falling inflation.

Will be interesting to get FY2023 outlook. Things like the falling whey price, jobs cuts and new iceland income which many were bullish about came too late for FY2022 results.

Maybe they are waiting to complete with an ingenuity large client before doing an investor call?

No-one cared too much about 'on demand' before, it's probably best to make this leaner (Icon campus may have been a waste). If we lose some on demand revenues for increased ingenuity revenues which the update seems to hint at that's not a bad trade.

"This strategy is now delivering tangible results with the Group confirming that it is in advanced discussions to provide long-term software solutions for several significant enterprise clients"

The working is quite specific, think these will all happen. Vivek Ganotra seems like an impressive guy.

Golden they said 10 - 15% not 15% and revenue still grew in the year, just not in q4 partly because of the December issues with post. Obviously not great I agree.
You seem extra concerned about cash-flow here though, what are your view on Ocado getting to cash flow positive? They are predicting it will take 5 years. Are you not tempted to short Ocado?

They didn't HH, which is quite crazy, still no official update on it as far as I know!