Member Info for Hosai

When I say worth I mean "valued at".

It's an interesting theory though difficult to see a reason why softbank would want to pay £900 million for 20% of ingenuity when the whole of THG is currently worth £1.24 billion.

Ah ok, cheers Ste.

I'm not sure it actually is..think the period is 30 days before results.

Perhaps outside of the obvious macro factors, some of the drop in price could be due to the lack of strategic update and insider buys which themselves could be a product of the potential PE/management buyout itself.

Until mid-may takeover price would have to be £5.96 under the rules as softbank bought at this (unless softbank wasn't involved in the buyout, but then you'd have the task of trying to convince them to sell at a very low price, they would probably just reject).
After that it would have to be around £2 until November 10th as that is when T Rowe bought. Again it could be lower if T Rowe wasn't involved in the buyout but again you'd then have to convinced T Rowe to sell at a very low price and they would probably reject.
Sofina also bought at around £1.90 on Nov 23rd.
Obv some people would not want a price such as £2 but I am just saying something like £1.50 isn't really possible, unless by breaking up the company into parts in a complex way it gets around the takeover rules somehow. I don't think MM would want to be known for screwing shareholders too badly though.

Yes although still all just rumours...as the FT alludes to the silence "would indicate either that the evaluatory work is very early stage or paused."

Advent has been mentioned a number of times, such as by Betaville, Daily Mail and Sunday Times etc. Clayton, Dubilier & Rice is a new name however.
Original rumour in Betaville and ST was Advent, Leonard Green and Apollo though Apollo were stated as being less likely due to being one of THG's debt-holders.

“£1bn invested in 2021 in tech, infrastructure and M&A,” says a video posted to Matthew Moulding’s Instagram account on February 9. Shares in his company, THG, have fallen every day since, reducing its market value to slightly over £1bn. For the many private equity funds said to be running the numbers on THG, return on investment might not be the most flattering metric.

What exactly has been eating THG? A cumulative loss of nearly 35 per cent over the past 11 sessions compares with a 5 per cent slide for the FTSE All-Share, yet the only statement from the ecommerce conglomerate was to deny a Sunday press story about a supplier dispute.

It seemed insignificant against a backdrop of persistent bid speculation and talk of corporate upheaval, as hinted at by a slew of regulatory filings from THG subsidiaries in recent days. Buyout groups including Advent and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice have been linked with an interest in THG but under the market’s usual rules of engagement, continued silence from all sides would indicate either that the evaluatory work is very early stage or paused."

https://www.ft.com/content/ff43cb11-bead-4d6a-a9ad-8f757bb576f7

If they are in at a higher average they should cash out but you shouldn't? Makes no sense

Slightly bad taste perhaps but interesting take here in regards to stock market and wars: https://twitter.com/largebrownbear/status/1496816242707083267/photo/1

The ratings agencies seem fairly happy with THG. Just to remind of this gem from Fitch: "THG's in-house Ingenuity platform and owned infrastructure represent a high barrier to new entrants, only matched, if only partly, by Amazon.com, Inc"

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/thg-capital-raise-reinforces-positive-rating-momentum-14-05-2021

Why would Matt or any of the institutions accept a hostile low bid? THG have £530 million in cash and access to £170 million more (this was unmoved between q3 and q4) so they don't "need" to be taken over.

Franalex their cash position overall was the same at q4 as q3, so doesn't indicate cash burn, this was with them presumably still spending on capex as normal.

Also in terms of Ocado I know there are differences but it seemed too stark not to mention them having an 850% higher market cap on 13% higher revenues. Both of the companies are atm loss making, Ocado's balance sheet doesn't look any better and they had less revenue growth last year and are predicting future revenue growth in the teens compared to THG's prediction at 22 -25%.

Wigan can you be more specific about the skeletons to be "publicly exorcised" as you seem to hint at often. Which part of THG has the skeletons?

Assassin I would agree it's concerning and there are obv some specific factors with THG I think mostly with it's stategy, but you should consider that since September other stocks such as Boohoo is down 70%, Joules is down 76.5%, Just Eat down 61.7%, Deliveroo down 68.7%.
Inflation is causing massive fear in the markets and much higher interest rates are currently being priced in than most economists are currently predicting.

Ocado had 13% more revenue than THG last year but has an 850% higher market cap.

I would say it's a bit early to say he hasn't been proved right, in terms of PE the sunday times literally wrote up an entire piece detailing the different parties in the PE rumour following his rumour last time. These things can take months, he is clearly still following it and posting to his paying subscribers.

If you look at both the two recent shorts - De Shaw and Volean capital management, De Shaw website says "we’re known as a pioneer in quantitative investing"and "Our systematic strategies run on quantitative and computational techniques developed by the firm over 30 years of research and trading."
On Volean's website it says "At Voleon, we approach investment management through the prism of machine learning, in which flexible statistical models are applied to the problem of financial prediction. Rather than having humans look at individual events within the marketplace, machine learning employs statistical algorithms capable of detecting persistent effects across large swaths of data. Besides financial markets, there is a wide array of other real-life applications for machine learning, from medical diagnosis to weather prediction."
Is this normal? It makes me wonder to what extent these shorts might be based on patterns robots have seen in the share price trend.