Member Info for HopelessValue

Tx everyone…my view is that there is currently a decent amount of risk premium priced in due to the earnings delay…once an earnings date is confirmed I expect this to jump 5-10%…however, this will likely continue to sell off if earning are delayed again and or some nasty surprises…

On a scale from 1-10…how reckless would it be to add to a sizeable position ahead of the earnings announcement…

Mate, saner here…rode it all the way up to 330…cut and bought all the way down as well…avg now around 105 for a decent amount…but still fairly confident as they are still showing strong cash flows and adjusted ebitda…most of the adjustments are non cash…if they were losing money/cash that would be a totally different scenario in my opinion and I would take the loss

Don’t forget that the 1bn you refer to is only the market cap…as it stands, the enterprise value is around 1.6bn and that doesn’t even account for the 500mio hybrid

Well, if they don’t they won’t sell it. And as you pointed out it’s not like they are forced sellers…they are still cash flow positiv…but with pe sitting in records amounts of cash and the focus on infrastructure as well as ESG increasing, I would expect a decent amount of interest to be there…though more likely at the lower end of the range.

If NA sale will happen, it will be north of 1bn….$1.2-1.5b estimated (by brokers)

It’s stating the obvious…ofc it’s been a terrible investment especially when compared to FGP. And there is a reason MCG is down however there are some positive signs for the future…not the least being Cosmens confidence to add significantly as of late…ofc there is no guarantee that things won’t get worse or even end at 0, however I would say that the avg of forward paths are pointing higher from here.

I usually value his videos quite a lot and watch most of them. But this one was poorly researched and he didn’t even take the time to dial into the call or read up on it. I agree with him that management has looked poor so far but there are also reasons to be optimistic about this stock…cosmens, na sale, margin recovery, positive fcf, high positive adj EBIT…no need to refinance or recapitalise etc

They mentioned that they would provide an update as part of the earnings release…if I remember it correctly they were saying something along the lines that things are progressing well.

To me it seemed like they tried to keep everything focussed on why they pushed back the earnings release rather than going into details on outlook or other things.

From Bloomberg (terminal)

Then you should thank the analyst and buy more if your view is still positive in MCG as his downgrade doesn’t change anything about the fundamentals obviously…though given how much underwater many are (including me) might be easier said than done 😂

Well the analyst even says “downgrade move could prove wrong” if there is a favourable disposal scenario or the largest shareholder makes further stock purchases…and analysts are Trend followers anyways…

RBC Capital Downgrades Mobico Group PLC (MCG:LN) to Sector Perform

Target lowered to 80p…

Liberium also lowered the target to 80p

Jefferies reaffirmed but recommendation, target 100

Big picture, the update doesn’t seem to change much or be a big issue…however it will further erode the limited confidence that is left in management. So ofc expect another painful day…atleast they will host a call this time to provide an update.

The 350mio cash are already included in the net debt…900mio is the covenant debt….page 10 shows the net debt of roughly 1.2bn

According to seeking alpha and Bloomberg net debt was 1.2bn…so adding the hybrid result in a net debt of almost 1.7bn…all this ha to be added on top of market cap when considering the true enterprise value

Don’t forget that there is a net debt of 1.2bn as well as a hybrid of 500mio which have to be added on top of market cap if someone was willing to make an offer for the whole company

Well 750 would imply a >70% premium over the current share price…wouldn’t be the worst outcome

Where does it say 29th of March?

I used to think that management was out in a tough position and trying the best they could to navigate through it…but not updating shareholders on the timing of its earning release even if they had to push it further back is just very very poor and a bit concerning.

If you wanna be optimistic it’s possible that they are trying to iron out the last details of a potential NA bid to incorporate it in their forecast for 2024 before publishing their earnings…but that’s likely wishful thinking