Member Info for HopelessValue

Re hybrid they mentioned that they no intention to get rid of it and that the hybrid is a vital part of their strategy at the moment. They have accounted for the interest impact in their calculations and business plan

Good luck everyone for tomorrow…may the odds be ever in our favor

Didn’t they even give more than a 2 day heads up last time that it will be postponed? And I think they want to avoid of sending a similar message as they saw the damage it did two the stock price…but the fear on this board (justified for the most part) is probably an accurate reflection of the markets opinion of this stock…which I think is great as this will mean that the stock can really fly if earnings are not a disaster again

Aren’t we up around 7% on the week??

Yeah, ofc it’s on the optimistic side…however, this still reflects “only” a market cap of 1.25bn. Assuming its pe ratio normalises to about 15, this only requires a net income of around 83mio…not base case but also not completely unrealistic

Do we really want a takeover bid in the current region…even a 50% premium will not be all that much…best case NA sale takes place at 1bn plus and reduce debt…think the overall underlying business is now on a good pace to recovery…not unrealistic to see this going back to above 200 by end of next year…Labor cost pressure shrinking, fuel costs stable, higher margins in new / renewed contracts…

Oh how I missed these doomsday posts on a down day 😂

Does anyone have a reasonable explanation why MCG is very often getting hammered into the close?

I think Poker was referring to the fact that the company is the same as a day prior despite a 4.5% loss on the day, which is correct…ofc the company is in a more challenging position than prior to covid…but also trading at a very different price due to this.

JG, I fully agree with you. It has to at least compensate the loss of EBITDA in order to have a positive impact. Management should be well aware of this fact…any bids in the region of $1bn should do the trick. This should be enough to wipe out / reduce the hybrid notional while lowering overall debt levels

I had hoped for a bit more upside momentum…let’s hope it’s just taking a breather

Tx a lot!

Listened to it this weekend…not too much insights but mentioned that for the first time since Covid it feels like things are normalising. Mentioned that electrification of the fleet will be one of tue biggest challenges going forward as it will be very capital intensive.

KG, I believe today was the last day of rebalancing for the indices. Could explain the high volume

The FTSE UK Index Series is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. Any constituent changes will be implemented after the close of business on the third Friday of the review month (i.e. effective Monday).

So hopefully the selling pressure should be over post this Friday

There are no convertible mobico bonds outstanding…often shorts are momentum driven as well and have little to do with the underlying fundamentals…

Would anyone know how long an asset manager can hold a stock after it has been kicked out of an index…I believe that part of the price action is due to forced selling post delisting

I don’t think such a successful and wealthy family would risk legal consequences…I think their actions (aggressively buying) is louder than anything they could possibly say…the family has been in the transportation business since 1728 and founded alsa in 1923…not sure there are many better experts on the business than them…

So them buying gives me confidence…and I don’t see a scenario in which they would profit from a dilution or worse bankruptcy…let me know if you or someone does pls

JG, assuming Cosmens are convinced about the longterm prospects at mobico at this price (why else would they build such a big stake), why would they prevent the market from offering them the opportunity to add at those levels by verbally intervening? I don’t see any scenario other than a healthy longterm business and higher share price that would benefit Cosmens…so assuming that they think the overall business is doing well…why would they care about whether the sp is falling or not in the short / medium term

Does anyone know how long asset managers have to sell a stock after it is dropped from an index? Could that be the reason why we still see continuous selling?

I am here you kingrav…I though exactly the same thing…thought this turns after cosmens bought another 1%…

The main relevant Holding

European express enterprises 21.08%

Azvalor AM 3.52%

Northern Express 3.00

Those 3 in total 27.6%