Member Info for HopelessValue

“Shorting here I suspect is more part of a hedging bet ..I can understand that”

Has anyone else noticed that fgp has been moving up while MCG has been declining…potentially a spread trade between the two could be part of the reason for the recent performance

Not sure if I read it correctly but the fare increase is on top of subsidies…

“Specifically, 955 million GBP has been allocated until 2026. 712 million GBP will bedistributed to local authorities to enhance services, while 243 million GBP will support bus operators to keep fares low and maintain service frequency.

This funding complements 150 million GBP already committed to fare caps and an additional 200 million GBP announced for City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements.“

https://bus-news.com/uk-government-allocates-1-billion-in-bus-funding/

I guess the important question is how much of this subsidy goes to Mobico and how does that compare to previous subsidies.

Does anyone know the rough split between sigle Tickets and season / monthly tickets

I actually managed to read the whole report…to summarise the main point:

“In its recent update Citi is actually recommending to keep the NA division as they expect the segments operating profit to recover to 2019 levels by 2026. According to them, this could increase the valuation by 46% from an estimated range of gbp 0.9-1.2bn to 1.3-1.7bn.”

Could it be that there is a switch from mcg into fgp going on after their recent acquisition announcement? Fgp has been up by a decent amount while mcg is dropping

Does anyone have a translation of the Cosman interview from last week?

A few brokers are actually recommending Mobico to keep its NASB as they expect strong margin recovery and it to drive growth of the company in the future…I think I summarised citis take here earlier but there calculations sound promising

In its recent update Citi is actually recommending to keep the NA division as they expect the segments operating profit to recover to 2019 levels by 2026. According to them, this could increase the valuation by 46% from an estimated range of gbp 0.9-1.2bn to 1.3-1.7bn.

Does anyone recall where they mentioned that they are planning to finalise the NA school bus sale by end of 2024?

No real major news in the update…still same ebit guidance…no updates on the divesture other than it being on track…let’s see if it satisfies the market given their history of disappointing in the more recent years

Great CPI numbers which should support MCG today but still no RNS…let’s hope for tomorrow

Does someone recall how long of a heads up they usually give ahead of their trading updates?

It’s a non cash expense but dilutes shareholders. That being said, it vests over 3 years and aligns managements incentive further with us. I think as long as they don’t over do it l, it’s not a bad thing. Hopefully also underlines managements optimism / expectations of a bright future

Fair enough…looking to increase my position ahead of the update…hence asking

Do we know when the q3 update will be published yet?

A few other books that may help to put things in perspective and how to deal with adverse movements are “the intelligent investors” and “one up on Wall Street”. For a bit more advanced reading “the alchemy of finance”.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=myu4Nv0pt0U&pp=ygUVcGV0ZXIgbHluY2ggaW52ZXN0aW5n

Dependence on ALSA

I can’t unfortunately but it Moodys applied a double notch downgrade. This reflects the company’s still weak debt metrics and only slow recovery. Also the growing dependence on sales is negatively mentioned…bond sold off quiet a lot on the back of it but stock seems to be stable so far (famous last word)

Https://marketnews.com/mobico-mcgln-ba2-nr-bbb-moody-s-double-notch-downgrade

Goldman Sachs