Member Info for Hexam

I’m not sure we will ‘see’ anything other than the usual teasing from QBT but with nothing concrete actually being delivered.

Hard got believe that some are falling for the 2.6x guff - almost makes PW seem trustworthy.

Fair enough but to me it seems like either indecisive or compulsive investing, especially as you appear to do it so regularly but that’s your choice and each to their own.

Just hope you’re right about it finding the bottom…

No brainer? I get that you might think this price is a steal for Boo and that's fair enough, it's your opinion and you're entitled to it. What I don't get is the strategy of continually adding to a holding (seems to be every week or so) when the price isn't moving much. If you're that confident why not invest more at a time (and would save on transaction fees too)? I can understand it if you're getting a lower price each time or you are simply investing what free cash you have when you have it but as neither appears to be the case it seems a very odd strategy to me and certainly not a 'no brainer'. Curious.

And there was a sell for the same number of shares shortly afterwards but neither means anything in the grand scheme of things.

"The question is how long can ARB hang on for before the next raise. Not sure what level BTC needs to be to stop the raises"

The other question is how long can QBT hang on before the next raise. Not sure what their current rate of cash burn is or what evidence is needed to convince the market that their fanciful claims that they've 'theoretically increased the rate of successful bitcoin mining by 2.6 times compared to standard bitcoin mining' have any relation at all to reality.

Polaris exited completely nearly a year ago.

I actually feel sorry for you Poor. Your continued projection of your own behaviour onto other posters suggests some serious issues whilst your continued misunderstanding and misquoting of what is in the RNS’s is dangerous to your money as well as that of other investors.

I suggest that you take some time away from things and to try to enjoy with your family the holiday you are on rather than spend so much of it away from them getting into fights with any anonymous stranger that has a different opinion to you.

You’ve repeatedly called me a shorter when I’m not and so can have absolutely no evidence because it doesn’t exist. Many, many other examples in your posting history for all to see.

You’re describing more what you do to others Poor than what others do to you.

Why do you do it? Don’t know and don’t care.

And why did you have to say 'expensive' whiskey and not just 'whiskey'? Either way it's not a Scottish single malt :)

It's CINE's wording, not mine.

But they don't have to apply, only decide to apply, and then the share will be suspended. It doesn't matter then how long anything else then takes.

But they only have to decide to apply for administration, which could be Monday. This means the share would suspended Monday. They might then exit Chapter 11 on Tuesday. Or all this could happen near the end of the month. Or if there is some delay it could all happen in August. Or they could apply for administration in July with the share immediately suspended in July and they don't emerge from Chapter 11 until August (even though they said it would only be 'shortly' after. All have the same end result though.

"It also states that CINE/Newco will emerge out of Chapter11 in July. Shouldn't administration started by now?"

Why? They said July and we are still only near the beginning of July. They will apply for administration, and trading will immediately be suspended, shortly (presumably a few days at most) before emerging from Chapter 11. Administration could then take days, weeks or even months, who knows, but it won't matter as the share will be suspended all the time while they go through the process and in the meantime they will have already emerged from Chapter 11. Really not sure what point you're making?

I agree JN. The question raised was a general one and obviously the lenders did a valuation before agreeing to the plan but now it serves no purpose (except to those who believed the lenders’ valuation was too low and were challenging it).

We know our fate barring a miracle and the time for a miracle is running out.

Hi Wolf. I think we’re at cross purposes. I was talking about the discount rate used to value the business which will be just whatever rate of return the lenders are looking for on their investment for the risks involved. This is then just applied to the projected cash flows/profits (which are expected to be positive from 2024 according to their forecasts).

I think you’re talking about the WACC which is sort of the other way around and like you I’m not sure how it could be calculated at the moment and what relevance it has in this situation anyway.

“I suspect the earnings would have too much of a positive impact on the share price, they wouldn’t want that would they”

How on earth do you come to that conclusion - they made a $3.5bn loss!

@mountainous - as far as the DCF itself goes this is just all the future profits valued at the present day using the desired rate of return (the discount rate).

So for example if you want to earn 10% on your investment and the business has an expected profit of £110m in a year’s time you would value that year’s profit at £100m. Then repeat for all years after that and add them all up. So if year two’s expected profit was £121m then would apply the discount rate for two years and get £100m again (121 divided by 1.1x1.1).

That’s the gist though there is obviously more to it than that (e.g. how do you decide the discount rate, how do you define ‘profit’, how many years do you look forward etc.). Also the future profits are a guess so you’d probably run different scenarios.

The discount rate used in the valuation will be much higher than that Wolf as the returns the lenders will want will be far more now they are holding equity rather than debt.

I think someone mentioned they had used either 12% or 14%? Can’t remember which and don’t know if this was legit.

There is enough info in the projections to come up with a reasonable value using whatever discount rate is applied.

If it was just the usual factors (difficulty and days) it should be around 158 if same efficiency as last month and same fees. Would need a lot of curtailment plus reduced fee impact to get as low as you are suggesting but possible. Tricky one this month but at a guess I’d go 135-140 perhaps but we’ll see. As CB says the commentary on the numbers will be interesting plus might get some news too…