Member Info for Hexam

Apologies, I only meant ‘crash’ as in terms of ‘breaking’ i.e. breaking through the support level it currently seems to have found. So anything below 30p really which I think could just take a poor update of some sort - not, I repeat, that I’m expecting one.

I think volumes in the US are relatively small so would doubt it ‘leads’ or ‘drives’ the UK price too much and if a gap does open up between the two it should be closed quickly through arbitrage.

Fair enough Oke. It does seem to have found a floor but personally wouldn’t rule out it crashing through it especially if the next news is bad news (though I’m not expecting it to be).

"Bottom in for Boo"

How do you know Oke?

They represent the same shares (except that ARBK is made up of 10 UK shares) so they should broadly move in line with each other but obviously the markets have different opening times. When they are both open the shares should broadly move up and down together.

When one is closed then it is NOT a case if ARBK finishes 5% up today then ARB will rise 5% on opening tomorrow for two reasons.

1) It depends on when ARBK rose. If it did this for example whilst London was also open and did not rise after it closed then there should (subject to second point) be no impact on UK opening as it will already be included. It is only any rise or fall AFTER UK closes that is relevant

2) Events can happen after US closes to affect the opening UK price that won't be in the US price. For example if BTC rises or falls after US closes, an RNS is released before UK opening or many other reasons. This will then affect the UK opening price which is set by the opening auction.

There is no new listing Ian - what are you on about? It will be a private company (at least initially). This also means the RI isn’t being offered to the public. And what borrowing costs for the new $1.4bn credit facility - they are lending, not borrowing? And if they seek full bankruptcy they will be left with virtually nothing! Apart from all that (and the other usual nonsense) good post.

No Wolf, it’s because no analyst has given a rating for 11 months - the last one that did have a price target of 40p! Meaningless.

That neutral status is absolutely meaningless as it is based on just one analyst and there have been no updates at all since the company went into Chapter 11 so even that one rating is well out of date and irrelevant now.

Hi Oke,

Yes, if they can post 6% EBIT margin next year then today's sp will probably just be an unpleasant memory - depending on the then future outlook as well. Must admit I'm more doubtful that they can improve so much, so quickly given their own forecasts. (Btw I presume you did indeed mean EBIT rather than EBITDA as 6% margin for EBITDA is not nearly as exciting - but more achievable and still a step in the right direction.)

Personally though my biggest red flag at the moment is their non-event trading update as they didn't give out any trading numbers at all. Hopefully it is just my suspicious nature rather than them having something they didn't want to share. Either way the next set of financials should be enlightening.

"The market finance wise looks at key KPI’s"

Maybe in the first instance Oke but unlike most PI's I would think they would look far deeper than a few headline metrics and will try to understand what is driving them. For example the FCF of £30m (I think your number of £120m is before Capex is taken off?) was only positive due to the significant reduction in inventory.

I think the last accounts showed that BOO was in reasonable shape but not as good a shape perhaps as some of the headline numbers suggested.

"I hope youve cashed it fellas"

No worries on that score for me Chae. My approach is very similar to Flowerpot's i.e. to top slice with each decent rise - took some more profit off the table from HUT last night. Of course in hindsight would have been better to have waited more lately but I'd rather bank some profits than watch it all evaporate.

Also still got some ARB and took some out there too this morning as can't explain the current surge so grasped the opportunity to crystallise a smaller loss. Maybe even more to come from ARB short term but it's hard to see a future for them beyond the next halving.

“Today I broke even thanks to Mara and CLSK against all the money I lost with Arb.”

Snap! I also moved into overall profit today on miners except I had a lot of help from HUT too - and a little from BITF as well.

What with Jamesy recently recovering his ARB losses too it seems to be becoming a trend :-)

Of course if ARB hadn’t messed up so royally we wouldn’t have had to fall back on the US miners but they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory thanks to a series of blunders so bad it’s hard not to laugh at them now despite the losses.

Good to hear from you too Speel and hopefully we can all enjoy some healthy gains from now whatever miners we each choose (I just won’t rely on only one again)!

It might do as anything can happen short term but longer term how is it going to fund the growth it needs to keep pace with increases in difficulty - or even to survive post halving? It is in a much, much weaker position than all the big miners so just don't get why you think this is ready for take-off and such a good 'ultra long' bet?

"think this has a turbo charged engine"

Eh? It barely has an elastic band to power it.

They DID stop paying a lot of the rent for many months, but how long should landlords go without income?

Yes creditors make a risk-reward choice but the terms of that risk are clear - if you change the rules (or even reserve the right to change them after they have been set) that choice changes and the terms for companies will be far worse.

I was talking about freezing interest at the start of Covid. CINE made losses of between $600m and $1bn in 2000, 2021 and 2022 (before write-offs etc.) so the interest of around $200m pa or so is pretty low in comparison.

"Revalue based on 2H 2023 revenues [or better 2025]."

The business was valued on 2H 2023 revenues, 2024 revenues, 2025 revenues and beyond. You can argue with the revenues they assumed in future years but like any valuation in this situation is not based on historic revenues but on forward looking ones.

I still don't see what you see as 'not correct' in the process unless you think the process should be changed and that companies should not be on the hook for the debt they owe if they cannot meet their obligations. If the rules were changed in that respect (or to move shareholders up the queue) then surely that would make it much harder for companies to get funding via loans, and much more expensive too as the risk premium would be a lot higher?

"It would have been fairer for government to mandate debt and interest payments to be frozen [for a few years] in this exceptional situation."

Even if interest payments were zero they would still have run out of cash, it would just have taken a few months longer - what then?

I think you've misunderstood what has actually happened. Regardless of the reason (in this case Covid plus a few other things) the company simply ran out of cash. Do you think there should have been a government bailout to save the company or that employees and creditors should just not be paid? Or that lenders should just keep pumping money in without any realistic prospect of ever getting it back?

As it is the 'vulture' creditors have written off over $4bn of debt in return for effectively our equity in the company and enabled the company to keep going and jobs (for now) to be secured. I'm not a fan of what they've done but can't blame them either as cannot see a viable alternative given the rate CINE were burning through cash. If we were lenders would we really have acted any differently? What would you have done instead?

If you are looking to blame anybody then it probably lies with CINE (for overreaching and then not reacting decisively enough to the pandemic) and ourselves for investing in such a debt ridden company - it was a risk that could have paid off big time but sadly it didn't.

Yes, but you've said similar things many times before and been completely wrong each time so I don't think you deserve too much kudos now. And with ARB it can't last very long unless BTC goes absolutely wild. ARB just doesn't have enough fuel to get very far without an extremely strong tailwind.

*Hard to believe