RE: Argo29 Jul 2023 10:01
Hi Jamesy - I'm struggling to see how eh/s to ev is a meaningful metric for ARB (or any miner really). The number of machines they have at the moment is surely far less important than the efficiency of those machines (and efficiency more generally) but even more so than the ability to grow that number. These things won't show up in that ratio and are where ARB fails so badly.
As you say, they lack a credible growth plan and it seems inevitable that their mining numbers will fall as they fail to keep up with increases to difficulty and that's before the halving. Even if BTC rises to $100k post halving they won't see much, if any, increase in revenue compared to today. That's why I see rises to BTC having much less impact on their sp than on the much stronger US miners and that £1 is simply out of reach in my view (unless BTC goes absolutely ballistic.)
They could grow through share issues but there seems little appetite given the last raise of barely more than £5m and any growth impact would be more than offset by dilution as Chuz alludes to.
So whatever way I cut it (apart from mega BTC rises) I just can't see ARB getting out of this hole - or that whatever is currently priced in that the sp will rise to the sort of levels some are suggesting. But even if BTC does get to obscene levels the growth in sp will be nothing compared to what the US miners will see.
That said I agree that there are still trading opportunities here - but again the US miners seem to offer more opportunity and less risk. However, some may not be comfortable investing in overseas stocks and so I can see why there is still some appeal in ARB despite its weaknesses as it is the only UK miner and probably still the best exposure to BTC on the UK market without actually buying BTC. So good luck to anybody sticking with ARB, just don't get bewitched by the graphs and simply think that history can repeat itself and the sp can rise again to £3.