Member Info for Hexam

Yes Stumpy, whether it's pandemic, strikes, staffing levels, war, wildfires, rights issue, oil prices, interest rates or whatever there always seems to be some unwelcome headline or event around the corner. Is it time for another blast of volcanic ash?

The growth is still decent but like you say a period of calm would be good to give a solid period of even better numbers. Looking just at the profitability likely for this year (even with my cautious view of what that might be) TUI does look significantly undervalued to me but I suspect it's that uncertainty about what might happen next that may be a big part of holding the sp of TUI, and others in the industry, back.

Hi Stumpy,

The flight disruption costs last year were I think those due to the problems airlines and support companies had in ramping up as the industry recovered post pandemic - in particular in getting staffing levels back up. This led to lots of cancellations etc. and additional costs to TUI of €75m.

What they are now saying is that the EBIT reported Q3 last year without this cost would have been +€48m rather than the -€27m actually reported i.e. €75m higher.

This means that instead of underlying EBIT of €169.4m in Q3 being €196.5m higher than last year it is only €122m higher if you use the €48m instead of -€27m for last Q3. So the second part of your statement is correct I'm afraid, when you said "that the improvement in EBIT was in fact 122 (when you take account of flight disruptions)".

As the €75m flight disruption costs were a one-off it is a little odd that they did not exclude them from underlying numbers last year but they didn't hence the need to mention them this time to part explain why the increase was so high this quarter compared to last year.

Yes, they could just say leave but making way is more appropriate as another company is taking its place.

In sport for example a player is usually described as making way for a substitute.

It really isn’t ambiguous in any way I’m afraid and is how it is normally worded.

Exactly Sean. There is no ambiguity in the wording. They are making way so they are leaving - as we knew already.

“Hexam nobody with any sense would think a year or so would stretch to two years, that is just stupid”

You are totally missing the point. How long you or I think ‘a year or so’ is is not important. The point is that you’ve used a throwaway phrase as if it’s proof positive someone is lying. It’s not and if he’s anything like as bad as me at remembering when he did things it could actually be a lot more than 2 years ago!

You are just so quick to jump down the throat of anybody who says anything negative and accuse them of lying no matter how flimsy the evidence. It’s just so tiresome.

Apologies - a year or so ago, my mistake, but in my book that qualifies as up to 2 years but can understand if it doesn’t in yours.

As to honesty, about those tens of thousands you said you’ve made on BOO whilst the sp collapsed…

I won’t say you were lying because I can’t be certain but it was a very nice trick if you managed it without shorting.

“ £2 or 40p, which one was it Peter?”

I have no idea whether BarnetPeter is telling the truth or not (and don’t care) but this is another sorry attempt to catch him out. He clearly said he sold over £2 a year ago AND has a had a few punts along the way which could easily include a 32p to 40p trade. If anybody prefers to spend time trolling back on somebody’s posting history to try and score points, rather than discuss BOO, then at least find something more definitive.

2 + 2 seems to equal anything but 4 here.

It was over £2 for more than one day in November 2021 and this time two years ago it was nearer £3 but hey, why let facts get in the way when taking cheap shots to try to discredit another poster.

Anyway October is still well within ‘1 or 2 years’.

What a lovely board this is.

November 2021 was the last time it was over £2 - so was less than two years ago.

Hi VCB,

I wouldn't claim to be more knowledgeable than others on here but I am probably less emotional than some and certainly less biased than at least a few.

Anyway FWIW I think it is unlikely there will be a placing anytime soon as they had over £300m of cash as at the last report, they should have positive FCF moving forward since it was positive at half year (albeit due to a reduction in stock), margins should be improving and planned capex doesn't seem too onerous.

The only thing for me that suggests they may need additional cash despite the above is that they drew down all the RCF (and hence why they had £330m cash). Perhaps they were just being cautious but maybe they are preparing for some significant outlay (building up stock again e.g. requirements in US, bid for RevB or some other behind the scenes strategic move). If it's for one of these reasons though then personally I wouldn't be that concerned as they would be funding for growth which should ultimately benefit shareholders (assuming they don't overstretch). They could also get such funding from other sources of course.

@hash - I still think you're shooting a bit too high. Even in 2018 and 2019 Q4 EBIT wasn't much more than a billion and you're suggesting Q4 will be way ahead of this which doesn't seem likely when Q1 to Q3 are very similar to pre-covid numbers. I'd love for you to be right as this would give a real kick to the sp but I think 1-1.25bn is more likely - but should still give the sp a bit of boost.

Btw - most fixed costs aren't truly 'fixed' and even then they will still go up with inflation of course.

"i wonder if would be investors look at this board and think i'm not joining that bunch of ******s!

and that is why there is no volume."

Must admit the thing that puts me off most about BOO is the mindless ramping here that's been wrong all the way down from £4 and still they are at it blaming everything from trolls, shorters, MM conspiracy theories etc. rather than the performance of the company itself (moving from profits to losses). And they just carry on in the same vein with no humility or recognition at all of past mistakes and dodgy advice (like 'fill yer boots' when it was around £3). This kind of relentless and unapologetic ramping is always a red flag to me as it just shows desperation, stubbornness and a complete lack of objectivity - and why should we believe them now when they were so hopelessly wrong before?

However, despite this I think things really do look good now for BOO to turn the corner with the US DC, reducing costs, possible growth opportunities like RevB etc. but it's not without risk and to really move the sp I think they just need to demonstrate progress on these things are beginning to feed into improved numbers - but it's not without risks.

In the meantime the Chuckle Brothers to me to you routine doesn't do it any favours and I wouldn't be surprised if indeed some are put off by the endless nonsense on here but I don't think this board carries nearly enough weight to materially affect volumes or the sp. Thankfully.

I think your starting point of 1.6bn EBIT for Q4 is a tad optimistic (would be nearly 60% higher than last year and that's not been the picture in the first three quarters). Otherwise yes, the fundamentals do suggest it is underpriced but I think there is just a wariness about the travel sector at the moment, particularly airlines, as there always seems to be another banana skin waiting around the next corner. Just needs a clear run I think to start to pick up.

He’s not wrong though is he (about the difference between distributions and dividends - and the adjustments needed to average purchase price).

An attempt to ‘denigrate’ him, call him did dishonest and score cheap points backfires but as usual rather than just say sorry for getting it wrong it’s a case of doubling down on all these things. And then move on to deflection.

Still, the behaviour on this board is as predictable as it is pathetic so no surprises there.

"BTW folks - Daytroll on the GLEN board today predicting 20p for BOO. LOL"

I don't think that will happen but surely it's nowhere near as embarrassing (or inaccurate) as a poster once saying about BOO that it was the "last chance to buy under £3"?

"for that to happen private investors (55%) would have to agree to being bought out"

Not all of them - just enough. As to price it would need to be much higher than the current level obviously but doubt it would need to be anywhere near £20. Probably academic anyway as can't see TUI being the typical sort of business they would be keen to get involved in. Not because of its value but probably too messy for all sorts of reasons. Could be wrong though (cue bid tomorrow)!

What I am supposed to be rebutting? I believe in supply and demand as I've said.

You are right, I don't know you, I can only go on what you say. What you have said on countless occasions is that the MMs conspire to keep the price down or otherwise impact the market e.g. by deliberately 'killing volume'. This is what I mean by conspiracy theory (the clue's in the name). Nothing complicated there, no weasalling of words, so not sure what you are complaining about?

But no wish to follow you down this particular rabbit hole even if you do refer to me as Alice. So enjoy the rest of your day.

So you DON'T believe the MMs conspire against BOO? Good, and apologies for misunderstanding you.

What make believe? All I'm saying is that sp is mainly driven by supply and demand not by MMs. doing whatever they want. It's an opinion I happen I to believe in but it's hardly controversial I would have thought.

If you would like to point out anything I've said that can be classed as make believe then happy to refute or retract it.

"Hexam if all shares were valued as you say on sentiment alone, then the only factors that should affect value and volume are market and sector macro factors, in the absence of individual stock news. That being the case..."

I don't think that follows so I don't think that is the case. We obviously disagree and that's fine. I can't change your mind and you cannot change mine. I and many others believe the market is driven largely by relative buying and selling pressure (supply and demand) which is driven by sentiment which in turn is driven by news, rumour, macro, whim or whatever. Whereas you and many others think it is driven a lot by MM manipulation. That's ok - we are on different sides of the fence and no use trying to convince each other any longer.

The good thing for me is that because I believe what I do I am not concerned with daily sp fluctuations or the reasons behind them so don't get enraged and let my blood pressure rise over what the sp is doing each day or in particular what MMs might be up to. I believe Boo is undervalued and whatever noise is happening short term I will get my exit price at some point - and if I don't then it's because I'm wrong (not for the first time) and not because somebody's out to get me or Boo. It's a much more serene way to be :-)