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If the news was already expected then the sp wouldn't have fallen so much this morning. I'm pretty sure not many were expecting FY guidance to be lowered (certainly not SCB).

I don't think the results were that bad but they are definitely not good overall. The guidance drop is particularly disappointing.

Yes Oke, just about to point that out but FCF still not bad considering higher than expected drop in revenue.

Mixed bag overall I think on first glance but most disappointing thing is that they have lowered FY guidance (for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA) despite a certain poster saying that would absolutely 100% not happen).

Doesn’t look great for sp today but depends on how much the market expected this and so how much was already priced in. After all ASOS didn’t drop much at all on their poor results and so BOO may not be much impacted with these numbers either.

Thanks Oke,

I don't actually think 3.5% EBITDA margin and £50M negative cash flow will be that bad and given what they've forecast for H1 (compared to H2) will be pretty much in line with full year guidance and so about what I'm expecting. So I certainly won't be all doom and gloom if those turn out to be the numbers - and with luck the market would be OK with those results too.

Hopefully though instead I'll be saying well done to you for your accurate forecasts as results anywhere near to where you've been suggesting will surely give a terrific boost to the share price (assuming they also reflect such good numbers in the FY outlook too). Fingers crossed - just hours away now!

Perhaps you are right bon_scott, I should start basing my investments solely on what others say and do and stop thinking for myself :-)

I may be arrogant, that's for others to judge, but I'm not the one making stuff up, saying 100% what's going to happen when I can't possibly know and projecting their own behaviour onto other people.

I like Oke's posts as he has researched deeply, bases his view on detailed work, puts across his views in a reasonable way and welcomes challenges to those views - i.e. all the complete opposite to you. I happen to disagree with his conclusions and think he is being too optimistic but he could easily be right and I will be among the first tomorrow to say well done if he is.

As to the 'blatant bullcrappers' on here I think you and T4G lead that particular race by a country mile - but just my view.

"Regardless of the update tomorrow. Are we still expecting a sp suppression?"

In general the sp goes down if results are worse than expected and it goes up if they are better than expected. The problem is that many people invested read the results more positively than they actually are and so are gobsmacked when the sp doesn't rise like they thought it ought to.

A good sign of this is the posts within five minutes of the results being published saying things like 'happy with that', 'great results' etc. when clearly at most they've only had time to read the PR spun headlines that the company want you to read.

So despite whatever the conspiracy theory gang say the sp will move largely on the strength of the results. Hopefully those results are better than expected (along perhaps the lines Oke has been suggesting) or they could be a damp squib like ASOS but let's see.

In the last interims they lowered guidance and as for beating guidance in 46 out of the last 50 updates you've just made that up haven't you?

You're going to look very silly tomorrow if they lower guidance again this year, especially after previously saying 100% that they won't.

I don't think they will lower guidance either but I'm not arrogant or stupid enough to say that I'm absolutely sure.

A lot of those are actually retail investors (e.g. those listed as HL) as it just reflects PIs who invest via their platforms.

Hi Oke,

I think £750m revenue sounds like a good estimate.

As to the other numbers I've already given my guesstimates and reasons. My figure for adjusted EBITDA margin was 3.5 to 4% and for FCF an OUTFLOW of £50-75m.

These numbers are obviously more pessimistic than yours but I would be more than OK with them given that H1 will probably (as they've stated) be a lot tougher than H2. Hopefully they won't lower guidance (unlike last year) - and may even raise it?

In any event the real results are nearly here so we'll soon know who takes bragging rights :-)

"all I'm saying is that there are many an HF or SB firm out there that gets up in the morning and openly discusses "who shall we ##ck today" so that's why you should refrain."who shall we ##ck today"

I'm intrigued though. How would they do that? Even if I was a high-roller (which I'm not) and said I'd just bought a shed load of TUI shares and my average was £8 or whatever, what could they do? Any decision I make would be based on my view of the company and the corresponding value I see (or not) - in the current sp. They can't make me - or anybody - do anything (unless I disclosed a stop position perhaps but even then only my broker would benefit and he knows my position anyway without reading this board and working it out). As to other brokers and HF's I don't see why they'd give a monkey's.

Seriously?? I really think they've got better things to do.

Hi Oke,

I'm not reading too much into ASOS figures as far as BOO's results are concerned as it may just be a case of ASOS being over-optimistic in their guidance. Having said that, one worrying thing is the emphasis they place on declining sales in the on-line market in July and August especially among 16-35 year-olds. This is a concern given BOO last reiterated their guidance in June but let's wait and see how BOO have coped. As you say, only a week now...

They are at the lower end of profit guidance and missed guidance on gross profit margin and cash flow (though say latter is due to 'timing issues').

The results show that things are certainly improving at ASOS but not quite as quickly as they hoped in their guidance so likely to be a tough day for ASOS and probably BOO too - especially with the reference to the poor July and August sales environment.

"So with the below in mind we can guess that Shein has a net margin across the whole company of 1.25%.... Not quite up to peepees magic numbers..."

It could be 10%, it could be a loss - I don't know. I'm not saying the net profit will be identical (it won't be) just that it will be on a similar kind of basis - unlike the gross profit.

Tbh I don't much care. I'm much more interested in what BOO's results say than dissecting a competitor's numbers, especially when those numbers aren't very comparable. Next week we'll find out what those are, for good or bad, and that should lead to a much more relevant debate.

The gross profit margin of Shein is non-sensical on the face of it but I think merely reflects that it is not at all comparable with the numbers seen for BOO etc.

They may well be working the tax angle but the main reason will simply be that that most of the costs that appear AFTER the gross profit line for BOO etc. are included BEFORE the gross profit line for Shein in the UK as it is presumably only the UK costs that appear after it in the UK profit and loss. The gross profit line will include an 'appropriate' share of the admin and distribution costs in China that wouldn't otherwise appear in UK only costs. In others words the overall profit should be similar (because of transfer pricing rules) but how it is presented (in particular the split between gross and net profit) will be very different.

So it's very hard to compare profitability unless you are looking at the whole company in each case.

"any normal person would' not forgive the criminals', not 'not forgive the victims'"

Really? So if your bank for example, lost all your details in a hack you'd be fine with that and even feel sorry for them?

Like passingthru, and many, many others I was also impacted by the hack. I haven't lost any money yet but the impact so far is worrying where your data is, what they are doing with it and what may happen because of it in the future. In my case it was company related so I had no choice over Capita holding my details in the first place and unless I had no other choice I would never place anything of mine in their hands even before this incident (based on my past experiences of dealing and working with them).

You don't have to like, or even trust, a company to think it might be a good investment though. I think the current sp is dirt cheap for what potential is there but they've got to deliver on that potential which means getting back to profitability and not shooting themselves in the foot so often on the way.

"how can CPI be valued at less than 300m, when it has just won a contract for nearly double that amount"

Because it's profit that matters, not revenue, and however many contracts they win they have yet to convince that they will return to decent levels of profitability. Hopefully the next update will show some positive signs in that respect but in the meantime the sp isn't likely to budge that much I'm afraid.

Nobody there is avoiding talking about ARB to feel good, it's because there is nothing much more to say. It is clearly in a deep hole with very little chance of getting out. Most regular contributors there are no longer invested in ARB (that's if they ever were).

No mrhanji - most regular posters on the ARB board already know it is a lost cause and have done so for a long time. Instead it is a convenient place to discuss the other miners that DO have a future as none are listed in the UK and so don't have their own boards on LSE. As QBT is also (theoretically at least) in the BTC space it occasionally crops up in conversation too.

It really is crazy, but even crazier is that there are rampers there still insisting that all is well and today's update was actually good news. Reminds me of the sort that clung onto hope here despite all the warning signs right up to the point when Helios had to be sold simply to survive - or at CINE where the company actually kept spelling out in RNS after RNS that shareholders would lose everything but still they argued vehemently against it and how the company was worth billions.

Just shows the dangers of falling in love with a share. Mind you it makes for an entertaining read on the QBT board even if it is like watching a car crash happen in slow motion.