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Mr Tibbs - impressed by golds resilience - silver bouncing, copper bouncing, so gold should join in so CEY should join in anyway - but clearly the ramp is on so good luck all !
Yep and I think the most telling thing this morning is that copper and palladium are falling more than silver and gold. The "peace premium" (hard to call it peace) doesn't appear to have lasted mote than 1 day - extraordinary if true.
While I agree with your sentiments about short term gold and solver weakness - one look at the 6month charts tells me that the rise in silver and gold due to interest rate cuts in the States is a strong trend - and whether its because the States keeps cutting due to recession or keeps printing money and eventually tanking the dollar I don't see pattern changing. After all Israel is still pursing its plan which has obvious aims above and beyond the brief in Gaza and the world keeps turning against Israel and its allies - namely the US - and a sensible short term solution to the Iran crisis doesn't make that go away.
SJ - vix - nicknamed fear gauge because when the markets drop the longs hang on but the shorts buy so the spread increases - wasn't designed to work that way - just does. Sometimes gold ignores the vix like with increasing interest rates but if it's something like war - gold goes up. At the moment a rising vix ties in with rising fear and rising gold. It's coming down because Isreal rather surprisingly did the sensible thing and blew up one anti aircraft position with one missile to draw the latest match with Iran' 1000 missile damage count (it leads the series about 101-1 anyway ). I think that's fair enough - power and restraint for a change.
Mr Gibbs - heads up - vix rising last half hour - stand by for action tomorrow maybe..
Maybe - just not today... Copper may do well today. Gold needs a bit of fear in the air.
A very nice mechanistic model goldgnome, but isn't the gist of it - too much money and nowhere to go ? AI is now the only growth game in town ? and overpriced ? Therefore BTC, gold, and other bubbles inflate. That used to be property but a recession will see to that. The tories saw property as a virtuous bubble because it had economic benefits in terms of employment, mobility and feel good but no one sees it that way anymore. Other bubbles to watch for - the green bubble - I see CARP is going bonkers - a military bubble in "defence" stocks (I've never thought of blowing up people has being defence or as sustainable but then I don't live in the Middle East). Ultimately growth is the only justification for rising real value wealth and with the AI revolution the growth will be focussed on a minute portion of business owners and most consumer led markets will fall (in real terms). Gold and BTC win (assuming AI stays overvalued). JMHO.
Yes but expect the Fed to short gold at 14:30 UK time as they did fruitlessly yesterday - buying opportunity.
The massive dip in gold at the open has now been fully reversed but silver and copper which dipped I think in sympathy have stayed lower. The vix is moving back up (just bought some VILX again), and NVD looks like its peaked for the day - so this 15 minutes it looks like its risk averse with gold as a safe haven - about time things made sense !
HI Mr Tibbles - nice to know you're still here. Looking at copper silver and gold all day here - not to mention the VIX and Nvidia. The sheer deceit and double dealing in those markets is criminal. I'm glad you're blessed with patience because I can see this little battle going on for weeks !
On top of that I would say silver and gold are now both flat lining 1% below Friday open, copper is the only 1 rising in a way you would expect on the free market due to increasing uncertainty, and copper is the only commodity driven solely by market demand. This stinks of the bank traders playing the situation. So could go on for weeks.
Gold silver and coppers behaviours are divergent. It could be that copper is doing best because its risk on and gold worst because its risk off - but then why did gold go down before the weekends action. The spike in gold started 16:30 Thursday after a high inflation signal - so illogical. The fall in gold started Friday 16:00 before the risk was resolved and is still low despite the risk being fully mitigated - so illogical unless you can identify a reason to sell off all assets. I think you have just further pushed me to the "emergency Israel warchest" theory.
Silver looking like bouncing first, copper on a slow wobbly one, gold stuck in range.
Looking more broadly oil falling, US stocks crawling back up - no sign gold doing that, China or EM bought copper to spike it higher at open but it has fallen back, some signs silver might be moving - but gold did a v small jump back and now flat as a pancake. That speaks to me as fear of Fed intervention on gold, silver following gold, and copper plus nasdaq as being the best bet for an immediate bounce back, but the across the board fall makes me think of a large investment body all asset withdrawal regardless of the risk of losing out on the buy back. My guess is Nasdaq "squeeze", then copper "squeeze", then silver "squeeze" then gold last to recover. It was silver that really got clobbered. Is it the fed or banks who manipulate the prices so they can cover their losses on trades ? The rise in gold silver and copper after the "bad news" on Thursday was also a US driven thing. So the US hiked prices Thursday after UK close and crashed them Friday after UK - sounds like international bank traders working in unison to me. "I am reviewing, the situation". I think this was a bank conspiracy rather than a FED conspiracy but for me it could just be this strange idea of emergency funds for Israel if that is not an urban myth. Gold just wobbled to top of today's range btw.
I've just been looking at the reactions of gold silver and copper. Silver of course has much more volativity. Copper has not crashed as strongly relatively as silver. When we talk about gold being bought and sold by the FED to control prices - do they buy and sell silver as well ? I know there is this rumour that Jewish organisations will buy and sell from the stock market if Israel is under threat to fund the hime land. Is that whet happened on Friday ? If so when will their money flow back into gold - and so they hold and sell silver and copper as well ? I do remember in the early 2000's a conflict n the Middle East caused a 2 week dip with a real bath tub shape, and wonder if that was the actual ,model for what happened on Friday night ? Any opinions or inside information anyone (doubt we would get any leaked inside information).
Surely this is going to blast off today !
James - because the power of dilution is like compound interest on acid working in the wrong direction.
And last time it surprised even the bears by slipping below the placing price - at first no one was expecting or predicting it would be that dire. The fact is this is how the US gets its hands on anything valuable we have in this country. We are not the 51st state, we are actually the scrap heap challenge of America it that is how they will keep it.
Barrons note predicted a top in cocoa but a boom in coffee. Cocoa sent crashing Wednesday but recovered somewhat Thursday and Friday - but Coffee was already rising exponentially and continuing to do so. This is possibly one of the safest and easiest multi bagger opportunities you will get folks.
We've had no news I know of - but this is end of tax year and weekly options will be closing so maybe a bit of a trading bump. Russia Iran Israel and the US have sent the rest of the market into a whirlpool of disorder so there are easier things to predict right now...